Kalshi Is Coming for Coinbase’s Crypto Traders With a New Derivatives Play

TLDR

• Kalshi is planning to launch crypto perpetual futures trading in the U.S.
• It will start with perpetuals tied to tokens like Bitcoin
• Kalshi holds CFTC licenses and recently got approval for margin trading
• The move puts it in more direct competition with Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Gemini
• Rival prediction market platform Polymarket also announced plans for perpetual futures

Kalshi, best known as a prediction market platform, is reportedly preparing to launch crypto perpetual futures in the United States. The plan was reported by The Information, citing people familiar with the matter.

The company plans to start by offering perpetual futures tied to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. These are derivative contracts that let traders speculate on price without owning the asset, and they have no expiration date.

Unlike traditional futures, perpetuals can be held as long as the trader has enough collateral. Prices stay in line with the underlying asset through payments between buyers and sellers, known as funding rates.

Perpetual futures have been popular on offshore crypto exchanges for years. BitMEX helped make the structure mainstream in crypto markets. Now U.S. platforms are pushing to bring this trading onshore.

Kalshi is already regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It holds multiple CFTC licenses and recently received approval to offer margin trading, which positions it to enter the derivatives space legally.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig has said these products could become available in the U.S. soon, as regulators look to pull more trading volume away from unregulated offshore venues.

Growing Competition in the Derivatives Space

The move puts Kalshi in more direct competition with Coinbase. Coinbase has been expanding its derivatives products and has introduced what it calls perpetual-style futures with long-dated expirations for non-U.S. traders. It has not yet launched true perpetuals in the U.S.

Kraken has also rolled out tokenized stock perpetual futures for users outside the United States. Crypto.com and Gemini have introduced prediction market products, showing the two industries are increasingly overlapping.

On Tuesday, Polymarket, another prediction market platform and a direct Kalshi competitor, also posted on X that it plans to offer perpetual futures. No further details were given.

Daily perpetual futures volumes across crypto markets are roughly half their peak levels but still reached nearly $20 billion on Tuesday, according to DeFiLlama.

Prediction Markets and Crypto Trading Are Merging

Crypto trading volumes have declined in recent months following a market downturn. At the same time, prediction market activity has surged, drawing both users and investor capital.

That shift has pushed crypto exchanges toward prediction markets and prediction platforms toward crypto derivatives. Both sides are competing for the same pool of traders.

Kalshi’s expansion could also extend beyond crypto over time. One person familiar with the matter said the platform could apply the perpetual futures model to other asset classes as well.

The company has not made an official announcement confirming the launch timeline or which tokens it plans to support beyond Bitcoin.

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