Key Insights
- Mizuho reaffirmed an Outperform rating and $484 price target for MSTR (MicroStrategy) Stock after a Q&A with Strategy CFO Andrew Kang.
- Trader XO argued the stock topped at $455 in May 2025, sharing charts that showed MSTR Stock never reclaimed that level.
- BoDoggos co-founder Pio predicted MSTR Stock could reach $1,000 or higher despite recent volatility.
Mizuho’s Dan Dolev reiterated an Outperform rating and $484 price target for MSTR Stock on December 3 following a Q&A session with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) CFO Andrew Kang.
The firm raised $1.44 billion to strengthen its USD reserves and secure 21 months of preferred dividend coverage without selling Bitcoin.
Kang told Dolev that the company planned to expand reserves when mNAV exceeded 1 while avoiding new convertible notes in favor of perpetual preferred equity.
He noted that Strategy could operate for over three years at current BTC prices, with Bitcoin sales serving only as a last resort.
Monetization options such as lending and covered calls remained exploratory, while the capital strategy remained focused on the mNAV ratio.
MSTR Stock Might Have Topped at $455
Trader XO took a contrarian stance to Mizuho’s bullish outlook when he shared analysis on May 22, suggesting the run had topped around $455.
His chart displayed resistance around $425 to $455, where the stock reached a local peak, with price action consolidating below those levels through mid-2025.
On December 1, XO revisited his call, updating the chart caption to “it is what it is,” noting that the price never again touched the $455 area.
The updated chart showed MSTR Stock had plummeted to $157.53 after breaking below the $325 support zone, representing a decline of more than 60% from the May peak and contributing to the stock’s year-to-date loss of more than 35% to 40%.
Bullish Prediction for MSTR Stock
BoDoggos co-founder Pio offered a starkly different prediction on November 30, writing that MSTR Stock would reach $1,000 or higher while criticizing those who expressed doubts without taking short positions or buying puts.
He argued that critics lacked skin in the game and suggested that buying 1,000 shares would put him in millionaire status, though he did not provide a timeline for reaching the $1,000 target.
His post came as Strategy (MicroStrategy) faced multiple headwinds, including MSCI index-exclusion risk and mNAV concerns that were weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
MSCI Review and JPMorgan Clash Weigh on MSTR Stock
MSCI launched a review of whether to exclude “digital asset treasury” companies from its equity indices if more than half their assets were held in crypto, with a decision due by January 15, 2026.
JPMorgan estimated that removal could prompt about $2.8 billion in outflows from MSCI-linked products, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed suit.
Michael Saylor told Reuters that Strategy was engaging with MSCI but argued that removal would not make a difference, framing the company as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy.
JPMorgan’s note sparked controversy as Bitcoin supporters amplified calls to boycott the bank.
This was after it highlighted MSCI risk and tightened margin rules on loans backed by MSTR Stock, with critics accusing the bank of targeting Strategy.
In contrast, others defended the stricter margining as standard risk management.
mNAV Collapse Sparks Death Spiral Debate
Strategy’s (MicroStrategy) mNAV slipped below 1.0 by November 13 before rebounding to about 1.2 on November 21, far below the peak near 2.7 earlier in 2025.
At one point, the company’s roughly 650,000 BTC were worth more than $66 billion while its market cap had fallen to about $51 billion.
CEO Phong Le formalized that BTC would be sold only as a last resort if mNAV dropped below 1 and external financing became unavailable.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned that selling BTC when mNAV was already depressed could trigger a death spiral.
However, he maintained that Strategy had many alternatives, including refinancing and further equity issuance.
Critics like Peter Schiff argued the mNAV trigger confirmed fundamental instability.
Strategy Creates $1.44 Billion Reserve and Cuts Guidance
Strategy disclosed a $1.44 billion reserve on December 1, funded by about $1.5 billion of common-stock sales executed between November 17 and November 30.
The company intended to cover at least 12 months of preferred dividends while targeting a 24-month buffer over time.
The filing slashed the FY 2025 outlook based on year-end BTC prices between $85,000 and $110,000.
That showed an operating income ranging from a $7.0 billion loss to a $9.5 billion profit, compared to prior estimates that assumed Bitcoin would hit $150,000.
Supportive analysts said the reserve de-linked coupon payments from BTC volatility.
According to skeptics, this move conceded that the BTC-only treasury stance was no longer tenable.
For them, the dollar buffer was a departure from MicroStrategy’s earlier positioning as a company focused solely on accumulating Bitcoin.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/12/03/mstr-stock-targets-484-traders-debate-peak/
