TON: Rise or Fall? January 16, 2026 Scenario Analysis

TON is consolidating in a narrow range at $1.71 ($1.67-$1.75), while the overall downtrend continues. RSI at 42 shows neutral pressure, MACD gives bearish signals, and price is below EMA20. Volume is low ($84.79M) with a lack of strong support. At this critical juncture, a resistance breakout could trigger upside, while weak volume could accelerate downside – both scenarios supported by market data. Traders should stay prepared by monitoring levels.

Current Market Situation

TON’s current price is at $1.71, trading in the $1.67-$1.75 range with a slight -0.35% drop over the last 24 hours. Volume is low at $84.79M, limiting volatility but potentially setting the stage for sudden breakouts. The overall trend is classified as downtrend; price is trading below EMA20 ($1.73) and the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, highlighting $1.81 resistance.

Technical indicators show RSI at 42.36, not approaching oversold, under pressure in the neutral zone. MACD histogram is negative and confirms bearish momentum. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 13 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 0 supports/2 resistances on 3D, 3 supports/4 resistances on 1W. Resistances dominate (especially $1.7442 score 80/100 and $1.7130 score 63/100), no strong support (no score >=60). Market is unaware, tied to general crypto sentiment.

This setup offers traders preparation opportunities in both directions: Resistance test could be a bullish catalyst, while volume-less downside continuation carries risk. Detailed data available on TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis pages.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

The bullish scenario is triggered by price breaking above $1.7130 resistance (score 63/100) with volume. Then, overcoming the strong $1.7442 resistance (score 80/100) is critical; this breakout should pass EMA20 ($1.73) upward, invalidating the short-term bearish structure. RSI rising above 50 and MACD histogram approaching zero provides momentum confirmation. Supertrend flipping bullish (above $1.81) adds further confirmation.

In MTF, if 1W supports (around $1.67) hold, buyers step in. Volume increase (%50+ spike) is essential; low-volume breakouts may be fakeouts. In this scenario, general crypto rally (BTC >$100K?) or TON ecosystem news (Telegram integration) acts as catalyst. Healthy pullback post-breakout to $1.71; this becomes new support. Traders should manage risk on long positions with stop-loss below $1.67 – invalidation: Break below $1.67 invalidates the scenario.

This roadmap teaches traders the importance of levels: Resistance breakouts should be confirmed with volume profile and MTF alignment sought. Historically, TON has rallied +15% from similar consolidations.

Target Levels

First target $1.81 Supertrend resistance (approx. 6% upside). Next, $1.9500 main target (score 28, 14% potential). Monitor Fibonacci extension 1.618 ($2.05) and 1W resistances. R/R ratio: $1.71 entry, $1.67 stop (1.75% risk), $1.95 target (14% reward) = 1:8 ratio. More aggressive traders can extend to $2.20 (near previous ATH), but partial profit-taking recommended.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario starts with rejection at $1.7130 resistance; momentum accelerates if price slips below $1.71. Break below $1.67 range low (current support) triggers distancing from EMA20. If RSI drops below 40, oversold pressure increases, MACD negative divergence deepens. If Supertrend remains bearish, $1.81 becomes distant target, confirmed by volume on downside (no short squeeze).

MTF shows abundance of 3D/1W resistances (6/9), supporting downtrend continuation. Even with low volume, rejection increases selling pressure – risk of general market correction (BTC <$90K?) or TON-specific liquidity flight. Pullback possible to $1.75, but below $1.67 offers short opportunity for invalidation. Traders should protect shorts with stop above $1.75 – invalidation: Break of $1.7442 breaks the scenario.

Educational point: Lack of support elevates breakdown risk. Confirm seller dominance with volume delta analysis; historically, TON has seen 20%+ drops in downtrends.

Protection Levels

First target below $1.67 range (2% downside). Main target $1.5334 (score 25, 10% drop). Monitor 1W supports and Fib 0.618 ($1.50). R/R: $1.71 short entry, $1.75 stop (1.75% risk), $1.53 target (10% reward) = 1:5.7 ratio. Aggressive shorts can go to $1.40 (MTF support), profit-taking essential.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main trigger: $1.7442 resistance – breakout bullish, rejection bearish. Confirmation: Volume >$100M, RSI divergence, MACD crossover. $1.67 support test critical; hold bullish bias, break bearish. Monitor daily candle closes (4H+), MTF alignment. With low volatility, news flow (TONcoin update?) determines direction. Trade both scenarios with invalidation levels – no emotional decisions.

Follow TON Spot Analysis for spot, TON Futures Analysis for futures. Risk management: Position 1-2% capital, target R/R >1:3.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

TON’s unbalanced setup at $1.71 offers traders an educational opportunity: Analyze with technical levels, indicator alignment, and volume. For upside, wait for $1.7442+ volume breakout; for downside, below $1.67. Both scenarios equally likely; prepare according to your risk profile. Watchlist: $1.7130/$1.7442 resistance, $1.67 support, RSI/MACD, volume. Market is volatile; stay updated.

This analysis teaches probabilities – decision is yours. Visit spot/futures pages for details.