LINK Weekly Analysis Jan 31

LINK closed the week with a sharp 8.90% drop at the $9.82 level, taking a breather; although RSI (23.67) in the oversold region signals a short-term reaction buy, the dominant downtrend structure and Bitcoin’s weak performance require a cautious strategy for altcoins. Market structure points to testing the critical support at $8.97, while the resistance band between $10.12-$10.79 holds consolidation potential.

LINK Weekly Market Summary

LINK traded in the $8.97-$10.84 range last week and closed at $9.82 with an 8.90% loss. Volume profile remained at the $612.28M level, indicating continued selling pressure. Primary trend is downward; failure to hold above EMA20 ($12.03) strengthens short-term bearish signals. MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram, while RSI at 23.67 is in the oversold region. In the bigger picture, Chainlink’s oracle network role shows resilience amid macro uncertainties, but BTC dominance is pressuring altcoins. For position traders, trend integrity is maintained above $8.97 support; a breakdown increases downside risks.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure is forming in a clear downtrend channel. On the weekly chart, highs have declined from around $14 to $10.84, and lows have sagged toward $8.97. Market structure has taken on a bearish character by breaking higher lows formation; ‘the trend remains intact as long as’ closes are maintained above $8.97, the downtrend will remain dominant. From a three-month perspective, remaining below EMA50 and EMA200 points to a distribution phase. In the macro context, considering we’re in the correction phase of the crypto cycle, LINK’s utility token structure is awaiting BTC stabilization for recovery. Strategically, a strong rebound from $8.97 is required for accumulation signals on long-term higher timeframes.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis shows dominant distribution patterns in recent weeks. High-volume sales occurred at the $10.84 peak, followed by low-volume consolidation at $9.82 – a typical test move before ‘accumulation phase characteristics’. In the volume profile, the $9.50-$10.00 range stands out as POC (Point of Control), but bearish volume delta supports sellers. According to Wyckoff methodology, we are in the secondary test phase; if $8.97 support breaks, markdown continues, but if it holds, a spring setup may form. For position managers, accumulation signals should be confirmed with high-volume buy bars and divergences.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, there is 1S/2R confluence: Support at $8.97 (score 70/100), resistances at $10.12 (66/100) and $10.79 (65/100). Price is in a bearish short-term trend filter below EMA20; RSI shows divergence potential. From a ‘confluence of support/resistance across timeframes’ perspective, daily lower highs were rejected at $10.12, with strong downside bias. Strategic confluence should await a momentum shift for an upside test from $9.82.

Weekly Chart View

The weekly view is resistance-heavy with 3S/4R levels: Major supports at $8.97, $7.50, and $6.20; resistances at $11.99, $12.50+. Trend structure is in a downtrend channel, with weekly MACD negative. Market phase is late distribution; oversold RSI opens the door for a rebound, but it will remain limited without BTC correlation. Multi-timeframe confluence marks a $10.12 breakout as a bullish pivot.

Critical Decision Points

Key inflection points: Support: $8.9700 (critical, breakdown triggers $4.79 downside), $7.50. Resistance: $10.1203 (first test), $10.7867, $11.99 (trend change level). As ‘key levels that will define direction’, holding above $8.97 preserves trend integrity; closure below signals bearish reversal. Upside objective $14.0150 (score 26), downside risk $4.7927 (score 22) – R/R ratio around 1:2.5 favors bearish scenario.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Case

Bullish scenario activates with a weekly close above $10.12 resistance: First target $10.79, extension $11.99-$14.02. Strategy: Long positions from $9.82-$10.00 range, stop below $8.97. RSI divergence and volume increase should confirm. Monitor spot market for detailed LINK spot analysis; follow LINK futures market data for leverage. Risk: Max 2-3% exposure.

In Bearish Case

Bearish scenario triggers with $8.97 breakdown: Target $7.50, then $4.79. Short setups from $10.12 rejection, stop above $10.79. Market structure supports downside; BTC weakness is the catalyst. For position traders, partial shorts and trailing stops recommended. Get additional insights from LINK and other analyses section.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $78,255 with -6.95% drop in downtrend; key supports $75,720-$74,513, resistances $80,357+. BTC Supertrend bearish, caution for altcoins: LINK correlates with BTC at 0.85+, BTC break below $75K accelerates LINK $8.97 test. BTC $80K recovery supports LINK rebound; rising dominance crushes alts. Watch: BTC $74,513 hold vs break.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $8.97 support test and $10.12 resistance reaction. RSI rebound or continuation? BTC below $75K risks altcoin dump. Strategic watchlist: Volume profile shift, MACD histogram zero line. Manage positions level-based, patience is key in macro cycle correction. For detailed data, see LINK Spot Analysis and LINK Futures Analysis.