Bitcoin Price Unlikely to Crash 70% Without Saylor Selling, CryptoQuant CEO Says

CryptoQuant CEO says Bitcoin selling pressure continues, inflows dry up, and sideways consolidation likely without major Saylor selling.

Bitcoin price is declining as selling pressure persists and fresh capital inflows remain absent, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He said current conditions do not favor a renewed bull market phase. Instead, the market may experience a long period of consolidation.

Selling Pressure Builds as Capital Inflows Dry Up

Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin Realized Cap has flatlined and it signals that there is no new capital entering markets. When market capitalization is at such conditions, bullish momentum tends to be broken. Therefore, present-day price declines are a reflection of distribution and not accumulation.

He explained that the early Bitcoin holders still have huge unrealized gains from previous cycles. These gains were compounded by the ETF inflows and MicroStrategy’s aggressive buying strategy. As a result, profit-taking has been on a constant path since early last year.

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Despite steady sales, Bitcoin’s prices were hovering near $100,000 for months. Strong institutional inflows helped to absorb distribution during that period. However, Ju said, all those inflows have now largely vanished.

Without new demand, the selling pressure has become more visible across on-chain metrics. Ju said that falling off participation in the market validates nervous investor conviction. Volatility has grown as a result of deteriorated liquidity conditions.

MicroStrategy had a significant role in supporting the previous upside momentum of Bitcoin. Its accumulation strategy helped to stabilize prices in phases of heavy profit taking. Therefore, the company’s actions continue to be a critical downside risk factor.

Ju stressed that a deep 70% Bitcoin crash is unlikely without major selling coming from Michael Saylor. Past cycles have experienced sharp declines only after large institutional exits. As things stand, there is no such selling behaviour.

Sideways Consolidation Likely Without Major Catalyst

While a point of a severe crash seems unlikely, Ju cautioned that the market hasn’t found a definite bottom. Continuing selling pressure implies that weakness may continue. As a result, Bitcoin could trade sideways for an extended period of time.

He characterized the current phase as a broad-based consolidation as opposed to a classic bear collapse. Price can be volatile within wide ranges as the supply and demand equilibrium is restored. This environment is often trying for the patience of investors.

Ju said that ETF demand was previously hiding distribution trends. With those inflows fading away, price discovery has become more delicate. Consequently, the market structure now resembles late-cycle behavior.

Macro uncertainty has also created a reluctance to deploy capital. Investors seem reluctant to put new capital to work at current levels. Therefore, prolonged upside movement is confined without a good catalyst.

According to Ju, sideways markets tend to last longer than traders expect. These phases gradually drop the leverage and reset the expectations. Eventually, better foundations develop for future trends.

He emphasized that MicroStrategy’s holdings of Bitcoin are still a major variable. Unless Saylor majorly reduces exposure, panic-driven selling is still unlikely. Thus, downside may remain under control even with continuing weakness.

Market participants are now paying close attention to on-chain indicators for stabilization signs. Metrics such as Realized Cap and holder behavior are still at center stage. Any improvement may indicate renewed confidence.

Until then, Ju said to be careful and realistic in expectations. Volatility can continue but have no clear direction. The market has to soak up the existing supply before any meaningful recovery can begin.

Overall, CryptoQuant’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin is in for a grinding adjustment phase. Selling pressure is on, although systemic collapse seems unlikely. Sideways consolidation might characterize the next months for Bitcoin markets.

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