Bitcoin Bears Aim For Victory In $30.3B Options Expiry

Key takeaways:

• $30.3 billion in Bitcoin options will expire at year-end, with most call (buy) bets placed well above the $89,000 to $94,000 price range.

• Bearish strategies stay favored unless BTC breaks $94,000 as prices above $88,000 have erased over half of put (sell) option bets.

As the year-end Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry approaches, bulls are increasingly skeptical about a turnaround in BTC price. A total of $30.3 billion in open interest hinges on Bitcoin’s 8:00 am UTC price on Friday, which will determine whether bears remain in control after a five-week consolidation near $89,000.

Deribit holds 80% of aggregate open interest, followed by the Chicago-based CME with 11%. However, most of the $21.7 billion in call (buy) options are set to expire worthless on Friday, as bulls were caught off guard after Bitcoin lost the $100,000 psychological support level in November. Less than 6% of Deribit’s call options are positioned at $92,000 or lower at expiry.

Even excluding the $2.5 billion in open interest at strike prices of $150,000 or higher, data shows a heavy concentration from $100,000 to $125,000. Traders often use highly optimistic strike prices to collect volatility premium through covered call strategies, which explains the strong demand for levels as high as $200,000.

Still, while bulls may have underestimated how long it would take Bitcoin to reclaim $94,000, bearish strategies may have gone too far by clustering bets from $75,000 to $86,000. If Bitcoin trades above $88,000 on Friday, more than 50% of the $7.7 billion in put options on Deribit will expire worthless. Even so, bearish positioning remains favorable as long as BTC stays below $94,000.

Investors are gradually becoming more cautious about risks in the tech sector, particularly after Oracle’s (ORCL US) debt protection costs surged to their highest levels. The company issued nearly $26 billion in bonds this year, according to Bloomberg. Oracle shares remain 40% below their September all-time high.

Bitcoin bulls continue to add positions ahead of the year-end expiry

Investors are pricing in higher odds of stimulus measures from the US after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed plans to issue a $2,000 tariff rebate for non-wealthy individuals in early 2026. In addition, US President Donald Trump has made it clear that whoever replaces Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May should prioritize lowering interest rates.

Bitcoin traders reacted by increasing year-end call option positions in the $90,000 to $120,000 range over the past week, signaling that optimism remains intact despite multiple failed attempts to reclaim $94,000 over the past five weeks.

Related: Bitcoin rallies thwarted by fading Fed rate cut odds, softening US macro

$94,000 is the key level to decide Bitcoin’s future momentum

Below are four probable scenarios for the year-end BTC options at Deribit expiry based on current price trends:

• $86,000 to $90,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $2.4 billion.

• $90,001 to $94,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $1.5 billion.

• $94,001 to $96,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $650 million.

• $96,001 to $98,000: Balanced outcome between call and put options.

A Friday expiry below $90,000 would be extremely negative for Bitcoin bulls. However, as long as the Bitcoin price stays below $94,000, the odds continue to favor bearish options strategies.

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