BTC might have to spend time below $80,000 to build support

By checking the past five years of bitcoin BTC$87,616.05 CME futures trading data, it is possible to assess where that crypto has historically spent time consolidating and, by extension, where support has been more or less established.

One useful way to frame this is by examining the number of trading days bitcoin has spent within specific price bands. The more time price has spent in a given range, the more opportunity there has been for positions to be built, which can later translate into stronger support.

Data from Investing.com shows clear disparities across price ranges. Excluding the very brief time bitcoin traded at record highs above $120,000, BTC has spent the least amount of time in the $70,000 to $79,999 band, just 28 trading days. Further, it has spent just 49 days in the $80,000 to $89,999 range. By contrast, lower price zones such as $30,000 to $39,999 or $40,000 to $49,999 saw almost two hundred trading days, highlighting how extensively those areas were tested and consolidated.

For most of December, bitcoin has been trading in that $80,000-$90,000 range following its sharp pullback from the October all-time high. That correction has retraced price back toward an area where the market has historically spent relatively little time, especially when compared with much of 2024, during which bitcoin spent a significant number of days between $50,000 and $70,000. This uneven distribution suggests that support in the $80,000s, and even between $70,000 and $79,999, is less developed than in lower ranges.

This observation is reinforced by Glassnode data. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows where the current supply of bitcoin last moved, using an entity-adjusted framework that assigns each entity’s full balance to its average acquisition price.

The URPD indicates a noticeable lack of supply concentrated between $70,000 and $80,000, aligning with the futures data. Both datasets suggest that if bitcoin were to undergo another corrective phase, the $70,000 to $80,000 region could represent a logical area where price may need to spend more time consolidating to establish stronger support.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the daily Open price of Bitcoin CME futures, with weekends excluded, meaning the figures reflect how often bitcoin began a trading session within each price band rather than intraday or closing price activity.