Here’s Why XRP Price Could Crash 46% Despite Supply Tightening

Key Insights

• The last time XRP price action printed a gravestone doji was on the weekly chart, and the price dropped by more than 46%.
• Binance’s XRP reserves have dropped to a low of 2.5 billion. The actual “trading supply” is even lower than that.
• XRP just pulled in $1.2 billion in 24-hour trading volume across South Korea’s top exchanges, leading the market by a wide margin.

Ripple (XRP) has been among the institutional tokens since traditional finance (TradFi) entered the world of crypto. The past 24 hours saw the altcoin drop by double-digit figures as its volume skyrocketed.

The decline in price action could be more catastrophic for XRP holders, despite growth in activity. As the crypto market continues to decline, will the XRP price follow suit, and by how much?

XRP Price Prediction: Why Ripple Could Crash 46%+

On the charts, popular analyst Ali Charts noted a familiar pattern in XRP’s price action. The weekly chart printed a gravestone doji, where the long upper wick meant buyers were running out of steam. For context, this candle preceded a sharp 46% drop, from $2.50 to $1.18 in five weeks.

Now, fast-forward to February 2026, and the daily chart still showed $1.507. After a brief upside spike, sellers regained control, resulting in another doji. If history repeated itself, the XRP price could drop by more than 46%, falling below $0.81.

The current price action suggests traders are actively monitoring a break below the $1.35 support level. This would heighten the chances of such a drop.

However, patterns do not always work. This doji, on the other hand, might exhaust the bears instead. A reversal in Bitcoin’s price could cause a change in direction.

Thus, if $1.35 held, for example, XRP could go back up to $1.75 or higher. The mood of the market as a whole often wins out over technicals. Hence, it was advised to stay cool, as volatility can go both ways.

The technical outlook suggested a potential price crash backed by the day’s trading volume.

XRP Outpaces Crypto Market By Daily Trading Volume

The drop in price that day was evident from Asian traders who seemed to be selling. In fact, XRP was the most traded crypto in South Korea, with 24-hour trading volume of $1.20 billion on Upbit and Bithumb. This number was much higher than all of its competitors.

For instance, Tether (USDT) was fourth with $254.35 million, which was only a fifth of what XRP made. Bitcoin (BTC) commanded $284.97 million, while Ethereum (ETH) came in second with $304.41 million. However, they were still a long way behind.

Others like Dogecoin (DOGE) brought in $122.38 million, Solana (SOL) had $106.11 million, and Pepe (PEPE) brought in only $50.86 million.

XRP’s lead showed that traders were becoming more interested in its markets. The downside of it was that most of the volume was on the sell side.

XRP Supply on Binance Tightening

Further analysis showed that XRP reserves on Binance had dropped sharply. They went down from 2.74 billion XRP at the beginning of January to 2.57 billion in the middle of February. The result was a drop of 170 million tokens.

This trend in withdrawals could mean that holders were accumulating or moving their assets off-exchange. Thus, tightening lowered the amount of trading supply. Such could make prices more volatile even with small net flows, since order books control movements.

What does this mean? Lower reserves reduce selling pressure, potentially creating bullish setups if demand rises.

However, such decreases could be a sign of redistribution to other venues, keeping momentum neutral. There were many positive responses, but the markets were still hard to predict, with a mix-up between technicals and fundamentals.

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