Why Nebius (NBIS) Stock Fell Over 13% on Friday – Is the Selloff Overdone?

TLDR

• Nebius Group (NBIS) dropped 13.1% on Friday, trading as low as $88.40 before closing at $91.19
• Q4 EPS of -$0.69 missed estimates of -$0.42; revenue of $227.7M fell short of the $246M forecast
• Q4 capital expenditure came in at ~$2.06B, raising cash-burn concerns among investors
• The selloff was amplified by peer CoreWeave’s (CRWV) disappointing earnings, which dragged the whole neocloud sector lower
• Analysts maintain an average “Moderate Buy” rating with an average price target of $143.22

Nebius Group (NBIS) had a rough Friday, closing down 13.1% at $91.19 after falling as low as $88.40 during the session. The stock had closed the previous day at $104.88.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Trading volume told its own story. Around 22.8 million units changed hands — roughly 68% above the daily average of 13.6 million.

The drop came after NBIS reported Q4 results on February 12th that disappointed Wall Street on multiple fronts.

The company posted an EPS loss of $0.69, compared to the consensus estimate of a $0.42 loss — a miss of $0.27. Revenue came in at $227.7 million, below analyst expectations of $246 million.

That alone was enough to spook investors, but it was the spending numbers that really caught attention.

NBIS reported capital expenditure of approximately $2.06 billion in Q4. The company is planning multi-billion dollar annual spend going forward, which has raised questions about funding and near-term cash burn.

Sector Pressure From CoreWeave

The NBIS selloff didn’t happen in isolation. Peer neocloud company CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) dropped as much as 21.9% on the same day after its own disappointing earnings report.

Both companies operate in the same space — buying GPUs and renting out AI computing capacity to hyperscalers and AI startups. When one stumbles, the other tends to follow.

This has become a pattern. These stocks are closely watched, thinly understood by the broader market, and highly sensitive to any negative news in the AI infrastructure space.

NBIS carries a beta of 3.90, which reflects just how volatile the stock can be relative to the wider market.

Analyst Views Still Mostly Positive

Despite the selloff, Wall Street hasn’t turned bearish. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, two have a Strong Buy, seven have a Buy, one has a Hold, and one has a Sell.

The average price target sits at $143.22 — well above Friday’s close. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage in January with an Equal Weight rating and a $126 price target. Freedom Capital upgraded to Strong Buy earlier this month.

Not everyone is on board though. Both Wall Street Zen and Weiss Ratings have downgraded the stock to Sell in recent months.

CICC Research started coverage in November with an Outperform rating and a $143 price target.

The stock’s 50-day moving average is $95.00, and its 200-day moving average is $95.95. Market cap sits at approximately $22.96 billion.

Analysts are forecasting revenue of $3.35 billion for 2026, which would represent growth of 531% year-over-year.

The company has cloud partnerships with Meta and Microsoft, which analysts say support its long-term revenue case.

For the current fiscal year, analysts expect a loss of $1.10 per share.

Institutional investors hold 21.90% of the stock, with several funds incrementally adding to positions in recent quarters.

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