Impeachment bid against VP Duterte could test Marcos’ grip on House, analysts say

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS against Vice-President (VP) Sara Duterte-Carpio could challenge President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s sway over Congress and test the durability of his majority coalition, political analysts said over the weekend, as politicians begin to weigh complaints against a political figure considered a frontrunner for the 2028 elections.

They said the House Justice Committee’s hearings on the impeachment attempts against Ms. Duterte could offer lawmakers a chance to hedge against her influence in the next election cycle and expose political fissures in the ruling coalition.

“The handling of the complaints will function as a stress test of the majority coalition,” Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “A tightly coordinated response suggests leadership control and coalition discipline, while visible hesitation, abstentions, or fragmented messaging may signal underlying strain.”

The 39-member congressional panel is set to open hearings on four impeachment complaints against Ms. Duterte, who retains strong grassroots support despite allegations of misusing secret funds and amid a widening rift with her former ally Mr. Marcos, a dominant figure in the country’s north.

Ms. Duterte, who hails from the south, rose to national prominence on the popularity of her father, former President Rodrigo R. Duterte, whose combative, tough-talking style of leadership resonated among Filipinos.

Analysts said the impeachment drive against the Vice-President carries political undertones that could turn the proceedings into a proxy battle between her camp and Mr. Marcos’ allies, exposing tensions between the two leaders who ran as a ticket in the 2022 elections and won by a wide margin.

“The impeachment process at the committee level could function as an early proxy battle between the Dutertes and Marcoses,” Arjan P. Aguirre, an assistant professor of political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook chat.

“Beyond the legal merits of the complaint, the proceedings may serve as a testing ground for coalition durability, factional loyalty and elite coordination,” he said.

Mr. Aguirre said the proceedings could “reveal early cracks” within the Marcos coalition.

“As the current administration approaches its final years, some members of Congress may hedge against the possibility of a Duterte political comeback,” he said. “This could manifest in slower deliberations, more extended debate, or reluctance to take strong anti-Duterte positions.”

Dennis C. Coronacion, chairman of the University of Santo Tomas Political Science Department, said the political survival of lawmakers also hinged on the positions they would take on Ms. Duterte’s impeachment proceedings.

“If they would decide to approve the impeachment complaints against VP Duterte, she could ruin their reelection bid by campaigning against them just,” he said in a Facebook chat.

Mr. Tapia said lawmakers should not frame the impeachment issue merely as a political contest ahead of 2028 but focus instead on their role in ensuring accountability for public officials.

“It is about whether Congress treats impeachment as a serious accountability process or as a numbers-driven political exercise,” he said.

“If the House Justice Committee conducts a transparent, evidence-based threshold review, it could strengthen institutional trust,” he added. “But if the process appears pre-determined or procedurally evasive, it risks reinforcing public cynicism toward Congress.”

Three impeachment complaints have been filed since early February by civil society groups and activists, alleging that Ms. Duterte misused P612.5 million in confidential and intelligence funds allocated to the Office of the Vice-President and the Department of Education, which she used to head.

A fourth complaint accused her of failing to fully disclose assets in her statements of net worth and of amassing wealth disproportionate to her lawful income.

Meanwhile, a group of complainants behind the second impeachment case against Ms. Duterte said they will withdraw their complaint, opting instead to shift their support to the third complaint to help move the case forward.

In a statement on Sunday, advocacy group Tindig Pilipinas said they backed out and decided to instead consolidate support for the third complaint accusing Ms. Duterte of committing impeachable offenses, such as violating the Constitution and betraying public trust.

“Consolidating our support behind the third complaint will strengthen our position and help move the case forward to the Senate impeachment court,” it said. “We believe that the impeachment process must proceed at the earliest possible time, free from procedural limbo and unnecessary legal delays that would otherwise obstruct the process.”

In the third complaint, Ms. Duterte was accused of illegally enriching herself, with critics saying her declared income as a former mayor and vice-mayor could not account for the hundreds of millions of pesos allegedly found in her bank accounts. She was also accused of bribery linked to government contracts and of threatening to kill President Marcos, the First Lady and former House Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez, the President’s cousin.