Lithium Holds Near $22,000/t as Demand Outlook Stays Strong Into 2040

Lithium stayed in focus after a new long-term demand post, and two market charts pointed to a mixed setup.

The latest move took shape in March, when spot prices eased from recent highs, but longer-term demand signals stayed firm; the bigger story is that both end-use growth and market structure still favor lithium over a longer window.

EVs and Battery Storage Demand Growth

An analyst post on X said lithium demand forecasts through 2040 show an interesting trend, and the post listed expected CAGR by end use, with EVs at 9% and battery energy storage systems at 11%; it said EVs are still expected to remain the largest contributor to total demand.

The forecast showed lithium demand rising through 2040, with EV demand growing at 9% CAGR and battery storage at 11% CAGR, while EVs remained the biggest demand source.

The chart attached to that X post showed EV sales rising steadily into 2040, while storage demand also climbed at a fast pace; the combined lithium demand by end use moved toward roughly 5,500 kilotonnes LCE by 2040, and most of that demand still came from EVs, with storage and other uses adding smaller shares.

That setup shows who is affected by this development: automakers need short-term visibility, battery producers need raw material planning, and miners need a clear long-term demand signal. Additionally, the post matters because it points to where future buying may come from, even when short-term prices move lower.

The lithium spot chart shows a strong rebound over one year

However, the one-year lithium carbonate chart showed a deep midyear low and then a powerful rebound. At press time, the price stood at 156,500 yuan per tonne, which converts to about $21,700 per tonne, and the daily move was down 2,500 yuan, or 1.57%; the broader trend still looked much stronger than the latest drop.

Lithium carbonate traded near $21,700 per tonne, down 1.57% on the day, after easing from an earlier spike that had pushed the market close to $25,000 per tonne.

Additionally, the TradingEconomics chart started near roughly $10,300 per tonne and then slipped toward $8,300 per tonne by early summer. After that, it recovered toward 85,000 yuan, then traded sideways before a major breakout began late in the year.

That rally pushed the price above 120,000 yuan, then close to 180,000 yuan, or around $25,000 per tonne, early this year. After that spike, the market pulled back, bounced again, and then settled near the mid-150,000 range, which shows momentum cooled but did not fully break.

ETF Technicals Show Consolidation While Money Flow Remains Positive

On the other hand, the lithium and battery technology ETF chart added a technical view to the broader story. The fund opened at $71.91, reached a high of $72.65, touched a low of $70.08, and closed at $70.40, down $0.75 or 1.05%, while volume stood at 270.23K during the session.

The lithium ETF closed at $70.40, below the Bollinger middle band of $72.79, while CMF at 0.32 showed buying pressure was still positive.

According to the TradingView chart, Bollinger Bands showed the upper band at $77.21, the middle band at $72.79, and the lower band at $68.36; the close at $70.40 sat below the middle band but above the lower band, which suggests the ETF is in a softer short-term phase; nevertheless, it has not broken into a deeper technical slide.

The CMF reading came in at 0.32, and that showed money flow remained positive even with the latest pullback. Compared with the spot lithium chart, the ETF looks more stable and less explosive; both charts still reflect a market that has stepped back from recent highs, while longer-term demand stays firm.