Analysts ask bubble questions as Solana network activity drops 50%

Solana’s price may be soaring, but its network activity tells a different story. On-chain data shows that daily transactions on the Solana blockchain have collapsed by nearly 50%. It fell from around 125 million on July 24 to roughly 64 million now. This decline comes as SOL has rallied more than 24% over the past 60 days.

As of now, Solana faces a critical week on the regulatory front. The US SEC is reviewing multiple spot Solana ETF filings from major issuers. This includes VanEck, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton, with key deadlines due Friday.

Applications from Bitwise and 21Shares will follow by mid-October.

Is the SOL rally built on hype?

According to the CryptoQuant report, Solana price has climbed from late September lows of $191 to trade near $230 this week. The divergence of rising prices alongside falling usage caught analysts’ attention. They added that in a healthy uptrend, prices usually move in line with growing network demand. However, in this case, the opposite is happening, which suggests that speculation and not fundamentals may be driving the rally.

The full picture depends on the type of transactions that have dropped. The report mentioned that around 80–90% of Solana’s total transactions are “voting” transactions. They were tied to its consensus mechanism. If the decline is mostly from those, then it might not be a red flag.

It added that if user activity in DeFi, NFTs, and transfers is falling, then it raises questions about how sustainable the current price move really is.

Solana price recorded a marginal dip over the last seven days. SOL is still running up by 18% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. It is trading at an average price of $222.4 at press time. Its 24-hour trading volume hovers around $8 billion.

Solana ETF approval odds hit 99%

This can be a big week for Solana as the final decision on spot SOL ETFs might be just days away. On Polymarket, traders are assigning over 99% odds to approval this year. Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart now see a 100% probability of approval. They cited clearer regulatory guidance and leadership changes at the SEC.

Analysts believe that approval could open the floodgates for institutional demand. This would be the same catalyst that previously helped both Bitcoin and Ethereum reach record highs.

Meanwhile, Bitwise just amended its Solana ETF filing. Cryptopolitan reported that the asset manager is setting a 0.20% annual management fee and adding a staking feature. Balchunas described the move as a “veteran Terrordome play,” noting it could trigger fierce competition among issuers.

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