Author: Frank, PANews On December 1st, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the formal end of its quantitative easing (QT) policy. On the same day, the cryptocurrency market saw a collective rebound, with BTC rising approximately 8%, returning above $93,000, and ETH surging nearly 10%, regaining the $3,000 mark. Other altcoins also experienced a wave of gains, with SUI rising 20% and SOL rising 13%. In an instant, the market went from dead silence to jubilation. With the end of QT, the market was anticipating a new wave of liquidity frenzy. However, dissenting voices have emerged, with some arguing that this surge is merely a temporary resurgence in a bear market, rather than the beginning of a new trend. So, historically, has the end of QT truly brought new momentum to the market? PANews attempts to analyze the changes in the crypto market after the end of QT, using a method akin to "tracing the boat to find the sword," to examine historical shifts in the crypto market. From the end of QT to the darkest moment in 2019 The last time QT ended was on August 1, 2019, more than six years ago. Let's turn back the clock to that time. In the summer of 2019, the crypto market had just ended a mini-bull run. After the crash at the end of 2018, BTC rose steadily, reaching a high of $13,970. Although still some distance from the previous high of $19,000, the market believed that the entire crypto industry was heading towards a new bull market and would break new highs. On July 31, the Federal Reserve announced at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that it would officially end its quantitative easing (QT) program on August 1, 2019. At this time, Bitcoin had just experienced a significant correction of nearly 30%, falling back to around $9,400. After the Fed announced the end of QT, Bitcoin surged by as much as 6% on July 31 and subsequently returned to the $12,000 mark in the following days. However, this upward trend didn't last long. On September 26th, the cryptocurrency market experienced another crash, with prices plummeting to a low of $7,800. While a brief rally occurred in October following the release of favorable Chinese blockchain policies on October 24th, the market subsequently plunged back into a bear market characterized by volatility and panic. Finally, in 2020, on the eve of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE), the unprecedented crash of March 12th occurred due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the same period, the Nasdaq Composite Index surged from August 2019 to February 2020, continuously setting new highs. It reached an all-time high of 9838 points in February 2020. However, both the Nasdaq and the cryptocurrency market experienced a crash between February and March 2020. This follows the familiar pattern in the crypto market: the end of QT followed by the Fed's QE. In this historical cycle, Bitcoin and the crypto market seemed to receive a brief boost after QT ended, but quickly retreated back onto a downward trajectory before QE even began. Of course, every moment in history is unique. That summer, news such as Facebook's announcement of the Libra project and Bakkt's launch of physically settled Bitcoin futures greatly excited the market. However, the PlusToken pyramid scheme collapsed in June 2019, and the massive sell-off put pressure on the entire crypto market. Correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 since 2017 Current situation: Size increased tenfold, trend became more stable. So how different is today from the past? In December 2025, Bitcoin, having just reached a new all-time high of $126,199 in October, also experienced a significant correction over the next two months, with a maximum pullback exceeding 36%. Although the details of the candlestick chart and the price action are quite different from previous years, the cyclical phase seems to share similarities with 2019. Both periods represent a significant consolidation phase following a bull market. This phase can be seen as, on one hand, the beginning of a bear market transition, and on the other hand, as a mid-term break in the bull market. From a fundamental perspective, today's crypto market has been accepted by traditional financial markets. People are no longer excited by the entry or deployment of a large company, and it has become commonplace for listed companies to adopt crypto treasury strategies and cryptocurrency ETFs. The overall market size of crypto has increased approximately tenfold compared to 2019. The market's main driving force has shifted entirely from retail investors to institutional investors. Comparison of Bitcoin price movements from 2017 to 2019 and from 2023 to 2025 In terms of market trends, there are differences in the outcomes but vastly different processes. To more clearly see the historical trends at the end of these two QT cycles, PANew compared the market trends of the two years before the end of the 2019 QT with the two years before the end of the 2025 QT in a single chart. When the starting point of the prices is normalized to 100, we can observe an interesting phenomenon: the gains before the end of these two QT cycles are quite similar, at 142% in 2019 and 131% now, meaning both cycles saw an increase of approximately 2.4 times. However, the process of this trend is very different. It is clear that in the past two years, Bitcoin's trend has become more stable, no longer experiencing the sharp rises and falls of the previous cycle. Another key factor is that the correlation between the current crypto market and the US stock market has become stronger, with the current correlation almost always remaining between 0.4 and 0.6, which is considered a strong correlation. In contrast, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 index in 2019 was basically between -0.4 and 0.2 (meaning that the two had little or no correlation, or even a negative correlation). While the general trend is towards simultaneous rises and falls, in a zero-sum game, funds have prioritized US tech stocks with higher certainty over cryptocurrencies. Take the Fed's announcement on December 2nd that QT was ending as an example. Prior to this news, the Nasdaq, although having experienced a correction, had already begun its recovery and had returned to levels close to its previous high of 24,019 points. In contrast, Bitcoin's performance was much weaker, not only falling more sharply during the correction but also showing a weaker rebound before the news broke. Of course, this is partly due to the high volatility of cryptocurrencies as risk assets, but overall, the crypto market seems more like a tech concept stock within the US stock market. QT is not the starting gun; QE is the true salvation. Bitcoin follows the US stock market, while other altcoins follow Bitcoin. This makes the future trend of the crypto market more dependent on changes in the macro market. Since they are "followers," simply ending this "stopgap" policy with QT may not be enough to support independent market trends. What the market really craves is a real "infusion" of capital—quantitative easing (QE). Looking at the market performance after the last QT (Quick Start), although the crypto market briefly rebounded due to QT expectations before the start of QE (Quick Easing), it was generally a period of fluctuating decline. It wasn't until after March 15, 2020, when the Federal Reserve announced "unlimited QE," that it began to rise, following the US stock market. At this juncture, although QT has ended, the Federal Reserve has not yet officially entered the quantitative easing phase. However, mainstream financial institutions generally hold a moderately accommodative outlook on the US economy and Fed policy, believing that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates and may even restart quantitative easing. Several institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026, with some predicting two rate cuts in 2026. Deutsche Bank and other institutions predict the Fed may restart quantitative easing (QE) as early as the first quarter of 2026. However, there is a risk that these expectations will be priced in prematurely. In its 2026 global market outlook released in November, Goldman Sachs stated that "the baseline outlook for global markets in 2026 is moderate, with Fed easing, improved fiscal policy, and the fading impact of tariffs supporting growth. However, the market has already priced in these expectations, and the risk of falling short of expectations should be noted." Furthermore, while the market anticipates quantitative easing, cryptocurrencies are no longer the biggest focus; the rise of the AI market is squeezing attention and expectations from the crypto market. Against this backdrop, many Bitcoin mining companies have gradually shifted towards AI computing networks. In November, seven of the top ten crypto mining companies by hashrate reported that their artificial intelligence or high-performance computing projects had generated revenue, while the remaining three planned to follow suit. In summary, based on both historical experience and the current reality, the end of QT does not seem to herald a new bull market. The real injection of liquidity, and more importantly, appears to begin with the commencement of quantitative easing. Furthermore, even after the implementation of quantitative easing, the crypto market is already ten times larger than it was in 2019, and its trend has stabilized. Whether it can continue the past trend of tenfold growth remains questionable. Moreover, we must acknowledge that blockchain or cryptocurrency is no longer the most dazzling protagonist on the market stage; AI is the current star. All these changes have cast a heavy shadow over the future of the crypto market. Excessive optimism or pessimism is both inappropriate.Author: Frank, PANews On December 1st, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the formal end of its quantitative easing (QT) policy. On the same day, the cryptocurrency market saw a collective rebound, with BTC rising approximately 8%, returning above $93,000, and ETH surging nearly 10%, regaining the $3,000 mark. Other altcoins also experienced a wave of gains, with SUI rising 20% and SOL rising 13%. In an instant, the market went from dead silence to jubilation. With the end of QT, the market was anticipating a new wave of liquidity frenzy. However, dissenting voices have emerged, with some arguing that this surge is merely a temporary resurgence in a bear market, rather than the beginning of a new trend. So, historically, has the end of QT truly brought new momentum to the market? PANews attempts to analyze the changes in the crypto market after the end of QT, using a method akin to "tracing the boat to find the sword," to examine historical shifts in the crypto market. From the end of QT to the darkest moment in 2019 The last time QT ended was on August 1, 2019, more than six years ago. Let's turn back the clock to that time. In the summer of 2019, the crypto market had just ended a mini-bull run. After the crash at the end of 2018, BTC rose steadily, reaching a high of $13,970. Although still some distance from the previous high of $19,000, the market believed that the entire crypto industry was heading towards a new bull market and would break new highs. On July 31, the Federal Reserve announced at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that it would officially end its quantitative easing (QT) program on August 1, 2019. At this time, Bitcoin had just experienced a significant correction of nearly 30%, falling back to around $9,400. After the Fed announced the end of QT, Bitcoin surged by as much as 6% on July 31 and subsequently returned to the $12,000 mark in the following days. However, this upward trend didn't last long. On September 26th, the cryptocurrency market experienced another crash, with prices plummeting to a low of $7,800. While a brief rally occurred in October following the release of favorable Chinese blockchain policies on October 24th, the market subsequently plunged back into a bear market characterized by volatility and panic. Finally, in 2020, on the eve of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE), the unprecedented crash of March 12th occurred due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the same period, the Nasdaq Composite Index surged from August 2019 to February 2020, continuously setting new highs. It reached an all-time high of 9838 points in February 2020. However, both the Nasdaq and the cryptocurrency market experienced a crash between February and March 2020. This follows the familiar pattern in the crypto market: the end of QT followed by the Fed's QE. In this historical cycle, Bitcoin and the crypto market seemed to receive a brief boost after QT ended, but quickly retreated back onto a downward trajectory before QE even began. Of course, every moment in history is unique. That summer, news such as Facebook's announcement of the Libra project and Bakkt's launch of physically settled Bitcoin futures greatly excited the market. However, the PlusToken pyramid scheme collapsed in June 2019, and the massive sell-off put pressure on the entire crypto market. Correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 since 2017 Current situation: Size increased tenfold, trend became more stable. So how different is today from the past? In December 2025, Bitcoin, having just reached a new all-time high of $126,199 in October, also experienced a significant correction over the next two months, with a maximum pullback exceeding 36%. Although the details of the candlestick chart and the price action are quite different from previous years, the cyclical phase seems to share similarities with 2019. Both periods represent a significant consolidation phase following a bull market. This phase can be seen as, on one hand, the beginning of a bear market transition, and on the other hand, as a mid-term break in the bull market. From a fundamental perspective, today's crypto market has been accepted by traditional financial markets. People are no longer excited by the entry or deployment of a large company, and it has become commonplace for listed companies to adopt crypto treasury strategies and cryptocurrency ETFs. The overall market size of crypto has increased approximately tenfold compared to 2019. The market's main driving force has shifted entirely from retail investors to institutional investors. Comparison of Bitcoin price movements from 2017 to 2019 and from 2023 to 2025 In terms of market trends, there are differences in the outcomes but vastly different processes. To more clearly see the historical trends at the end of these two QT cycles, PANew compared the market trends of the two years before the end of the 2019 QT with the two years before the end of the 2025 QT in a single chart. When the starting point of the prices is normalized to 100, we can observe an interesting phenomenon: the gains before the end of these two QT cycles are quite similar, at 142% in 2019 and 131% now, meaning both cycles saw an increase of approximately 2.4 times. However, the process of this trend is very different. It is clear that in the past two years, Bitcoin's trend has become more stable, no longer experiencing the sharp rises and falls of the previous cycle. Another key factor is that the correlation between the current crypto market and the US stock market has become stronger, with the current correlation almost always remaining between 0.4 and 0.6, which is considered a strong correlation. In contrast, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 index in 2019 was basically between -0.4 and 0.2 (meaning that the two had little or no correlation, or even a negative correlation). While the general trend is towards simultaneous rises and falls, in a zero-sum game, funds have prioritized US tech stocks with higher certainty over cryptocurrencies. Take the Fed's announcement on December 2nd that QT was ending as an example. Prior to this news, the Nasdaq, although having experienced a correction, had already begun its recovery and had returned to levels close to its previous high of 24,019 points. In contrast, Bitcoin's performance was much weaker, not only falling more sharply during the correction but also showing a weaker rebound before the news broke. Of course, this is partly due to the high volatility of cryptocurrencies as risk assets, but overall, the crypto market seems more like a tech concept stock within the US stock market. QT is not the starting gun; QE is the true salvation. Bitcoin follows the US stock market, while other altcoins follow Bitcoin. This makes the future trend of the crypto market more dependent on changes in the macro market. Since they are "followers," simply ending this "stopgap" policy with QT may not be enough to support independent market trends. What the market really craves is a real "infusion" of capital—quantitative easing (QE). Looking at the market performance after the last QT (Quick Start), although the crypto market briefly rebounded due to QT expectations before the start of QE (Quick Easing), it was generally a period of fluctuating decline. It wasn't until after March 15, 2020, when the Federal Reserve announced "unlimited QE," that it began to rise, following the US stock market. At this juncture, although QT has ended, the Federal Reserve has not yet officially entered the quantitative easing phase. However, mainstream financial institutions generally hold a moderately accommodative outlook on the US economy and Fed policy, believing that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates and may even restart quantitative easing. Several institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026, with some predicting two rate cuts in 2026. Deutsche Bank and other institutions predict the Fed may restart quantitative easing (QE) as early as the first quarter of 2026. However, there is a risk that these expectations will be priced in prematurely. In its 2026 global market outlook released in November, Goldman Sachs stated that "the baseline outlook for global markets in 2026 is moderate, with Fed easing, improved fiscal policy, and the fading impact of tariffs supporting growth. However, the market has already priced in these expectations, and the risk of falling short of expectations should be noted." Furthermore, while the market anticipates quantitative easing, cryptocurrencies are no longer the biggest focus; the rise of the AI market is squeezing attention and expectations from the crypto market. Against this backdrop, many Bitcoin mining companies have gradually shifted towards AI computing networks. In November, seven of the top ten crypto mining companies by hashrate reported that their artificial intelligence or high-performance computing projects had generated revenue, while the remaining three planned to follow suit. In summary, based on both historical experience and the current reality, the end of QT does not seem to herald a new bull market. The real injection of liquidity, and more importantly, appears to begin with the commencement of quantitative easing. Furthermore, even after the implementation of quantitative easing, the crypto market is already ten times larger than it was in 2019, and its trend has stabilized. Whether it can continue the past trend of tenfold growth remains questionable. Moreover, we must acknowledge that blockchain or cryptocurrency is no longer the most dazzling protagonist on the market stage; AI is the current star. All these changes have cast a heavy shadow over the future of the crypto market. Excessive optimism or pessimism is both inappropriate.