Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
Markets
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
How Much Longer Until We Consider
Markets
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
How Much Longer Until We Consider
How Much Longer Until We Consider the Bitcoin Power Law Model Invalid?
5 min read
How Much Longer Until We Consider the Bitcoin Power Law Model Invalid?
As the gap between spot bitcoin price and the power law widens, investors are left questioning whether mean reversion is coming or if another cornerstone model is approaching its end.
By James Van Straten, AI Boost|Edited by Oliver Knight
Dec 6, 2025, 3:00 p.m.
Power Law (Glassnode)
What to know:
- Bitcoin has largely tracked its long standing power law trend this cycle, though it now trades about 32% below the model.
- Earlier models like stock to flow have already failed, with its current implied valuation near $1.3 million per bitcoin
Over a long enough time frame, every long term valuation model for bitcoin has eventually been broken, yet the one that has maintained the strongest narrative this cycle has been the power law model.
Historically, in previous cycles, bitcoin has tended to overshoot this model during bull markets and fall below it during bear markets, but in the current cycle the price has largely remained close to the model's trajectory.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sign me up
The bitcoin power law framework provides a mathematical viewpoint of long term price trends, revealing that bitcoin’s historical performance follows a power law distribution on a log scale. This implies a relationship between time and price. However, the model relies on historical observations.
In theory it is a backward looking model that does not guarantee future predictive accuracy, particularly given the unpredictable nature of financial markets. The model is useful for understanding long term structural trends.
Below $90,000, bitcoin currently trades at a steep discount to the model. The power law value sits near $118,000 which places the spot price roughly 32% beneath the model. This is the largest deviation since the yen carry trade unwind back in august 2024, which produced a 35% deviation from the trend line and took three months to recover.
From a broader perspective, bitcoin has spent most of this cycle tracking close to the model, whereas in previous cycles it deviated far more aggressively both above and below it.
In the last cycle, the most prominent model was the stock to flow framework created by the anonymous analyst Plan B, which assumes that scarcity directly drives value. The model has been invalid since January 2021, and according to current Glassnode data it would imply a price of roughly $1.3 million per bitcoin today.
The key question now is whether bitcoin mean reverts back toward the power law trend or breaks lower and challenges the validity of yet another long standing model.
Stock To Flow (Glassnode)
GlassnodeBitcoin NewsStock-to-Flow
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
More For You
Protocol Research: GoPlus Security
Commissioned byGoPlus
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
View Full Report
More For You
Anthony Pompliano's Bitcoin Treasury Firm ProCap BTC Closes SPAC Merger Deal
Shares in the company fell more than 50% this week as the merger approval went forward.
What to know:
- Anthony Pompliano-led ProCap BTC closed its SPAC merger on Friday.
- This year's crop of quickly-formed bitcoin treasury companies have plunged in value, and BRR fell more than 50% this week as its merger went forward.
- Pompliano attempted to address investor concerns over management and board compensation.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News
The Grandma Test: When Your Mom Can Use DePIN, Mass Adoption Has Arrived
Anthony Pompliano's Bitcoin Treasury Firm ProCap BTC Closes SPAC Merger Deal
Stablecoin Adoption Is ‘Exploding' — Here's Why Wall Street Is Going All-In
LUNC Surges Over 160% in a Week as Do Kwon Sentencing and Token Burns Draw Traders
Euro Stablecoin Market Cap Doubles in Year After MiCA, Study Finds
XRP Faces Downside Risk as Social Sentiment Turns Wildly Negative
Top Stories
Euro Stablecoin Market Cap Doubles in Year After MiCA, Study Finds
Anthony Pompliano's Bitcoin Treasury Firm ProCap BTC Closes SPAC Merger Deal
Small Texas Lender Monet Joining Field of Crypto-Focused Banks
U.S. Prosecutors Seek 12-Year Sentence for Terraform Founder Do Kwon in Crypto Fraud Case
Trump’s Security Strategy: Impact on Bitcoin, Gold, Bond Yields
Turkey's Paribu Buys CoinMENA in $240M Deal, Expanding Into High-Growth Crypto Markets
Market Opportunity
Power Protocol Price(POWER)
$0.19211
$0.19211$0.19211
USD
Power Protocol (POWER) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.
You May Also Like
XRP Enters ‘Washout Zone,’ Then Targets $30, Crypto Analyst Says
XRP has entered what Korean Certified Elliott Wave Analyst XForceGlobal (@XForceGlobal) calls a “washout” phase inside a broader Elliott Wave corrective structure
Share
NewsBTC2026/02/05 08:00
Republicans are 'very concerned about Texas' turning blue: GOP senator
While Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives have a razor-thin with just a four-seat advantage, their six-seat advantage in the U.S. Senate is seen as
Share
Alternet2026/02/05 08:38
Headwind Helps Best Wallet Token
The post Headwind Helps Best Wallet Token appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Google has announced the launch of a new open-source protocol called Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) in partnership with Coinbase, the Ethereum Foundation, and 60 other organizations. This allows AI agents to make payments on behalf of users using various methods such as real-time bank transfers, credit and debit cards, and, most importantly, stablecoins. Let’s explore in detail what this could mean for the broader cryptocurrency markets, and also highlight a presale crypto (Best Wallet Token) that could explode as a result of this development. Google’s Push for Stablecoins Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) uses digital contracts known as ‘Intent Mandates’ and ‘Verifiable Credentials’ to ensure that AI agents undertake only those payments authorized by the user. Mandates, by the way, are cryptographically signed, tamper-proof digital contracts that act as verifiable proof of a user’s instruction. For example, let’s say you instruct an AI agent to never spend more than $200 in a single transaction. This instruction is written into an Intent Mandate, which serves as a digital contract. Now, whenever the AI agent tries to make a payment, it must present this mandate as proof of authorization, which will then be verified via the AP2 protocol. Alongside this, Google has also launched the A2A x402 extension to accelerate support for the Web3 ecosystem. This production-ready solution enables agent-based crypto payments and will help reshape the growth of cryptocurrency integration within the AP2 protocol. Google’s inclusion of stablecoins in AP2 is a massive vote of confidence in dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies and a huge step toward making them a mainstream payment option. This widens stablecoin usage beyond trading and speculation, positioning them at the center of the consumption economy. The recent enactment of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. gives stablecoins more structure and legal support. Imagine paying for things like data crawls, per-task…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 01:27