Key Insights
- Barclays reduced its COIN price target to $291 from $357 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating.
- Coinbase reported $1.9 billion Q3 revenue and $433 million net income, beating Street expectations.
- Technical analysts flagged potential breakout patterns after the COIN price retreated from November highs.
Barclays cut its Coinbase price target to $291 from $357 on December 12 while keeping an Equal Weight rating.
It cited a “more mixed” outlook for exchanges versus alternative asset managers in its 2026 sector reset.
COIN traded at $270.20 as of press time, down from November highs above $400.
The downgrade came weeks after the exchange posted strong quarterly results and accelerated its push into tokenized assets and institutional services.
Strong Earnings Drive Strategic Expansion
Coinbase beat expectations on October 30, reporting third-quarter revenue of around $1.9 billion and transaction revenue of roughly $1.0 billion.
Net income jumped to approximately $433 million, or $1.50 per share, versus $75.5 million a year earlier.
The shares climbed in after-hours trading following the print. The strong results came after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight with a $404 target in late October.
The firm cited emerging monetization opportunities and speculation around a potential Base token alongside subscription revenue growth.
Coinbase used the momentum to pursue its “everything exchange” strategy. The company agreed to acquire Echo, a digital asset investment and tokenization platform.
It was a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $375 million in October.
The acquisition added infrastructure for token issuance and structured products that analysts viewed as medium-term revenue drivers.
The exchange rebranded Coinbase Wallet as the Base app in November and tied the move to a roadmap that includes prediction markets and tokenized assets on its layer-2 network.
Additionally, reports noted that Coinbase’s December 17 event will unveil in-house tokenized equities and a full prediction markets offering, deepening its partnership with Kalshi.
Coinbase and Standard Chartered announced an expanded institutional partnership this week to build out trading, prime, custody, staking, and lending services.
Regulatory Fine and Valuation Pressures Mount
Ireland’s Central Bank fined Coinbase Europe €21.5 million in early November for anti-money laundering control failures.
The regulator said Coinbase fell “significantly short” of expected standards on customer due diligence and transaction monitoring between 2020 and 2023.
Coverage noted the exchange planned to shift much of its EU hub structure toward Luxembourg, adding a governance and compliance overhang.
Analyst sentiment shifted as valuation concerns emerged. Argus downgraded the COIN price from Buy to Hold on November 25, noting shares traded at roughly 39 times forward earnings versus mid-20s multiples for other exchanges.
Goldman Sachs also cut its target to $314, and Erste Group shifted from Buy to Hold as multiples expanded through November.
The moves reflected a “great company, demanding valuation” narrative that gained traction as the COIN price pulled back from its November peak.
Barclays described constructive market conditions for alternative asset managers and wealth brokers in its 2026 outlook.
However, it saw a more mixed environment for exchanges and traditional asset managers. The firm’s revised $291 target reflected that sector positioning shift.
Charts Show Accumulation Pattern Tests
Trader Bryant shared a COIN price chart on December 12, specifying a “golden signal” when large institutional volume appeared.
He wrote that COIN climbed from $320 to $400 during the last golden signal and added that purple bars continued to rise, indicating that institutional control remained in place.
The chart showed yellow volume bars against typical blue volume periods. Bryant cautioned traders to watch closely and not miss potential upside moves.
Trader ‘Cantonese Cat’ shared a weekly COIN price chart on December 10, highlighting historical accumulation patterns.
The chart displayed price action from 2022 through the present, with particular focus on resistance tests during the second half of 2023.
The historical pattern showed multiple attempts to breach a resistance zone before the price broke through and jumped from the $85 area to $275 over the course of a year, a nearly threefold increase.
The current setup shows COIN testing another similar resistance channel in the weekly timeframe, though the trader did not explicitly project outcomes.
The stock traded between competing narratives: a profitable infrastructure winner and an over-owned, richly valued exchange.
The Ireland incident and the latest Barclays cut weighed on sentiment.
Even so, the tokenized assets strategy and institutional partnerships provided offsetting support for bulls looking past near-term valuation concerns.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/12/12/barclays-cuts-coin-price-target-to-291-as-coinbase-builds-everything-exchange/
