US Lawmakers Move to Block Insider Bets on Prediction Markets

The post Let insiders trade – Blockworks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read more editions, subscribe ​​“The most valuable commodity I know of is information.” — Gordon Gekko, Wall Street Ten months ago, FBI agents raided Shayne Coplan’s Manhattan apartment, ostensibly in search of evidence that the prediction market he founded, Polymarket, had illegally allowed US residents to place bets on the US election. Two weeks ago, the CFTC gave Polymarket the green light to allow those very same US residents to place bets on whatever they like. This is quite the turn of events — and it’s not just about elections or politics. With its US government seal of approval in hand, Polymarket is reportedly raising capital at a valuation of $9 billion — a reflection of the growing belief that prediction markets will be used for much more than betting on elections once every four years. Instead, proponents say prediction markets can provide a real service to the world by providing it with better information about nearly everything. I think they might, too — but only if insiders are free to participate. Yesterday, for example, Polymarket announced new betting markets on company earnings reports, with a promise that it would improve the information that investors have to work with.  Instead of waiting three months to find out how a company is faring, investors could simply watch the odds on Polymarket.  If the probability of an earnings beat is rising, for example, investors would know at a glance that things are going well. But that will only happen if enough of the people betting actually know how things are going. Relying on the wisdom of crowds to magically discern how a business is doing won’t add much incremental knowledge to the world; everyone’s guesses are unlikely to average out to the truth. If…

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