Prediction markets show overwhelming odds in Warsh’s favor after reports that he met with Trump and impressed the president. Warsh also previously expressed a more favorable view of Bitcoin than Powell. Separately, Michael Selig said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will join the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Project Crypto to align digital asset regulation.
Kevin Warsh Leads Trump’s Fed Chair Pick
US President Donald Trump is expected to nominate former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US central bank, according to multiple major media outlets. Trump said on Thursday that he would announce his pick to replace current chair Jerome Powell on Friday, ahead of Powell’s term ending in May. Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times all reported that Warsh is set to be the nominee.
Reuters also reported that Trump met with Warsh on Thursday, with one person briefed on the discussion saying the former Fed official impressed the president during their meeting. Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011, which is a period that included the global financial crisis, and has since stayed an influential voice in monetary policy debates. His past experience and hawkish reputation seems to have resonated with Trump.
Prediction markets moved sharply after the reports. On Polymarket, Warsh’s odds of being nominated surged from around 30% to roughly 94%. Former frontrunner Rick Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, saw his chances fall to just over 3%. Similar dynamics played out on Kalshi, where Warsh’s odds climbed to more than 90%, leaving economist Kevin Hassett and Rieder with single-digit probabilities.
‘Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair’ on Polymarket
Warsh is widely seen as a nominee who would advocate fiscal restraint, a strong stance against inflation, and a clearer exit from quantitative easing policies. Markets appeared to react to that perception, with the US dollar strengthening and Treasury yields rising as anticipation grew that Trump would favor a more hawkish candidate over alternatives seen as closer to the current policy consensus.
Beyond his macroeconomic views, Warsh is also well known for his favorable stance on Bitcoin compared with Powell, who has generally downplayed the cryptocurrency’s role in the US economy. In a July interview with the Hoover Institution, Warsh rejected the idea that Bitcoin threatens the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage monetary policy. Instead, he argued that the asset could act as a form of market discipline for policymakers.
“Bitcoin doesn’t trouble me,” Warsh said at the time, and described it as an important asset that can signal when policymakers are making good or bad decisions.
CFTC Joins SEC Project Crypto Push
Meanwhile, Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency will formally join the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Project Crypto. In prepared remarks at a joint SEC-CFTC discussion focused on harmonizing approaches to crypto regulation, Selig said the CFTC intends to partner with the SEC on the initiative, which was launched in July to bring more regulatory clarity to the digital asset sector.
According to Selig, the collaboration is designed to advance a clear taxonomy for crypto assets, clarify jurisdictional boundaries between the agencies, eliminate duplicative compliance obligations, and reduce regulatory fragmentation across US markets. He argued that fragmented oversight creates tangible economic costs by raising barriers to entry, reducing competition, increasing compliance expenses, and incentivizing regulatory arbitrage rather than productive investment. The goal of cooperation is not to blur statutory responsibilities, but to remove unnecessary duplication that does not meaningfully improve market integrity.
The remarks were made as Congress debates digital asset market structure legislation. Earlier on Thursday, the Senate Agriculture Committee voted along party lines to advance a bill intended to clarify the respective roles of the SEC and CFTC in regulating crypto markets.
Selig also addressed the CFTC’s stance on prediction markets. He said that since taking office in December, he directed staff to withdraw a 2024 rule that prohibited political and sports-related event contracts, as well as a 2025 advisory that warned registrants against offering sports-related contracts amid ongoing litigation.
Selig said the agency’s existing framework has proven difficult to apply and failed market participants. He intends to establish clearer standards for event contracts to provide regulatory certainty.
Questions about CFTC leadership also surfaced during the Senate Agriculture Committee’s consideration of the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act. Senator Amy Klobuchar proposed an amendment that would have required the CFTC to have at least four commissioners in place before the bill’s authorities could be implemented. The amendment narrowly failed along party lines, with Republicans opposing the change. Klobuchar argued that Congress should not grant expansive new powers to an agency currently operating with just one commissioner. Selig assumed office after the departure of former acting chair Caroline Pham and several resignations in 2025.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14156/trump-set-to-pick-bitcoin-friendly-kevin-warsh-for-fed-chair
