Gold vs. Bitcoin: 12 Years of Data Reveals Who the Real Winner Is

Authors: Viee, Amelia | Biteye Content Team

On January 29, 2026, gold prices plummeted by 3% in a single day, marking the largest drop in recent times. Just days earlier, gold had broken through $5,600 per ounce to reach a new high, with silver following suit. The year 2026 has already far exceeded JPMorgan Chase's mid-December forecast.

Data source: JPMorgan Chase

In contrast, Bitcoin remains within a weak, oscillating range after its pullback, and the market performance of traditional precious metals and Bitcoin continues to diverge. Despite being called "digital gold," Bitcoin seems to be unstable. Especially during periods of inflation or war, which traditionally benefit gold and silver, it tends to resemble a risky asset, fluctuating with risk appetite. Why is this?

If we cannot understand Bitcoin's actual role in the current market structure, we will be unable to make reasonable asset allocation decisions.

Therefore, this article attempts to answer from multiple perspectives:

• Why have precious metals surged recently?

• Why has Bitcoin performed so poorly in the past year?

• Looking back at history, how has Bitcoin performed when gold prices have risen?

• In such a fragmented market environment, how should ordinary investors make their choices?

I. A Game Across Cycles: A Decade-Long Showdown Between Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin remains one of the highest-returning assets. However, over the past year, its performance has significantly lagged behind gold and silver. The market trend from 2025 to early 2026 exhibits a stark binary divergence: the precious metals market has entered a phase known as a "supercycle," while Bitcoin has shown a slight downward trend. Below is a comparative data set for three key cycles:

Data source: TradingView

Data source: TradingView

This divergence in price trends is not new. Back in early 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic, gold and silver rose rapidly due to safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin plummeted by over 30% before rebounding. In the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin surged 1359% while gold only rose 7%; in the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 63% while gold only fell 5%; and in the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell 57% while gold rose only slightly by 1%. This seems to suggest that the price correlation between Bitcoin and gold is not stable. Bitcoin is more like an asset at the intersection of traditional and new finance, possessing both technological growth attributes and being affected by liquidity, making it difficult to equate with gold as a perennial safe-haven asset.

Therefore, when we are surprised that "digital gold isn't rising while real gold is booming," the real question we should be discussing is: Is Bitcoin truly being treated as a safe-haven asset by the market? Judging from the current trading structure and the behavior of major funds, the answer is likely no. In the short term (1-2 years), gold and silver have indeed outperformed Bitcoin, but in the long term (10+ years), Bitcoin's returns are 65 times that of gold. Over a longer period, Bitcoin's 213-fold return proves that while it may not be "digital gold," it is the greatest asymmetric investment opportunity of our time.

II. Reasons for the rise: Why have gold and silver prices risen more sharply than BTC in recent years?

The frequent record highs of gold and silver, coupled with the lagging narrative surrounding Bitcoin, reflect not only a divergence in price trends but also a profound disconnect between asset attributes, market perceptions, and macroeconomic logic. We can understand the dividing line between "digital gold" and "traditional gold" from the following four perspectives.

2.1 Amid a crisis of confidence, central banks take the lead in buying gold.

In an era of strong expectations of currency devaluation, who continues to buy gold determines the long-term trend of assets. From 2022 to 2024, central banks around the world made significant purchases of gold for three consecutive years, with an average annual net purchase of over 1,000 tons. Whether it's emerging markets like China and Poland, or resource-rich countries like Kazakhstan and Brazil, all regard gold as a core reserve asset to hedge against the risks of the US dollar. Crucially, the higher the price, the more central banks buy—this "the more expensive, the more they buy" pattern reflects central banks' firm belief in gold as the ultimate reserve asset. Bitcoin's difficulty in gaining central bank approval stems from a structural problem: gold has a 5,000-year-old consensus and does not rely on the credit of any nation; while Bitcoin requires electricity, network access, and private keys, making large-scale allocation by central banks risky.

Data source: World Gold Council, ING Research

2.2 Gold and Silver Return to "Physical Priority"

As global geopolitical conflicts escalate and financial sanctions are frequently imposed, asset security becomes a question of whether assets can be redeemed. With the new US administration taking office in 2025, high tariffs and export restrictions are frequently introduced, disrupting global market order. Gold naturally becomes the only ultimate asset not reliant on the credit of other countries. Simultaneously, silver's value in the industrial sector begins to emerge: the expansion of industries such as new energy, AI data centers, and photovoltaic manufacturing is driving up industrial demand for silver, reflecting a genuine supply-demand mismatch. In this context, the convergence of speculation and fundamental factors in silver naturally leads to a more dramatic price increase than gold.

2.3 Bitcoin's Structural Dilemma: From "Safe-Haven Asset" to "Leveraged Tech Stock"

In the past, Bitcoin was seen as a tool to combat central bank over-issuance of currency. However, with the approval of ETFs and the entry of institutional investors, the capital structure has fundamentally changed. Wall Street institutions typically include Bitcoin in their portfolios as a "highly resilient risk asset"—data shows that in the second half of 2025, Bitcoin's correlation with US tech stocks reached 0.8, an unprecedentedly high correlation, meaning Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a leveraged tech stock. When market risks arise, institutions are more willing to sell Bitcoin for cash, unlike gold, which is often bought.

Data source: Bloomberg

More representatively, the crash and liquidation on October 10, 2025, saw $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in one go. Bitcoin did not exhibit safe-haven properties; instead, it experienced a collapse due to its highly leveraged structure.

2.4 Why is Bitcoin still falling?

Besides structural difficulties, there are three deeper reasons for Bitcoin's recent continued slump:

The cryptocurrency ecosystem is facing a predicament, with AI stealing its business. The development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is severely lagging. While the AI ​​sector is raking in money, "innovation" in the cryptocurrency world is still stuck in memes. There are no killer applications, no real demand, only speculation.

The Shadow of Quantum Computing. The threat of quantum computing is not unfounded. While a true quantum breakthrough is still many years away, the narrative has already deterred some institutions. Google's Willow chip has demonstrated quantum advantage, and while the Bitcoin community is researching quantum-resistant signature schemes, upgrades require community consensus, slowing down the quantum-resistant process but also making the network more robust.

OGs are selling off. Many early Bitcoin holders are leaving the market. They feel Bitcoin has "gone bad"—from an idealistic, decentralized currency to a speculative tool on Wall Street. With the approval of ETFs, Bitcoin's core spirit seems to have vanished. MicroStrategy, BlackRock, Fidelity… institutional holdings are growing larger, and Bitcoin's price is no longer determined by retail investors, but by institutional balance sheets. This is both a boon (liquidity) and a curse (losing its original purpose).

III. In-depth analysis: The historical connection between Bitcoin and gold

A review of the historical correlation between Bitcoin and gold reveals that their price correlation during major economic events is quite limited, and they often diverge. Therefore, the reason why the term "digital gold" is repeatedly mentioned may not be because Bitcoin is truly like gold, but rather because the market needs a familiar benchmark.

First, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold was never a safe-haven phenomenon from the beginning. In its early days, Bitcoin was still in its nascent stage within the geek community, with negligible market capitalization and attention. In 2013, the Cyprus banking crisis led to the implementation of some capital controls, yet gold prices fell sharply by about 15% from their highs; during the same period, Bitcoin surged to over $1,000. Some interpreted this as capital flight and a flood of safe-haven funds into Bitcoin. However, in retrospect, the 2013 Bitcoin surge was more driven by speculation and early sentiment, and its safe-haven attributes were not widely recognized. That year, gold plummeted while Bitcoin soared, and the correlation between the two was very low—the monthly return correlation was only 0.08, almost zero.

Secondly, true synchronization only occurred during periods of abundant liquidity. Following the 2020 pandemic, central banks worldwide implemented unprecedented quantitative easing, leading to growing investor concerns about excessive fiat currency issuance and inflationary expectations, causing both gold and Bitcoin to strengthen. In August 2020, gold prices reached a then-historical high (breaking $2,000), while Bitcoin surpassed $20,000 by the end of 2020, subsequently accelerating to over $60,000 in 2021. Many argue that during this period, Bitcoin began to exhibit the characteristics of "inflation-hedging digital gold," benefiting from the loose monetary policies of various countries, just like gold. However, it's important to note that it was essentially the loose environment that provided the fertile ground for both to rise; Bitcoin's volatility is significantly higher than gold's (annualized volatility 72% vs. 16%).

Third, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been unstable over the long term, and the narrative of "digital gold" remains to be validated. Data shows that the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has fluctuated significantly and is generally unstable. Particularly after 2020, while their prices sometimes rose in tandem, the correlation did not strengthen significantly; in fact, it often showed a negative correlation. This indicates that Bitcoin has not consistently played the role of "digital gold," and its price movements are driven more by independent market logic.

Data source: Newhedge

A review of past events reveals that gold is a historically proven safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin is more of an unconventional hedging tool that only holds true within a specific narrative. When a crisis truly arrives, the market will still prioritize certainty over speculative possibilities.

IV. The essence of Bitcoin: It is not digital gold, but digital liquidity.

Let's look at this from a different perspective: What role should Bitcoin actually play? Is it truly meant to become "digital gold"?

First, Bitcoin's underlying properties inherently distinguish it from gold. Gold is physically scarce, requires no network, and is independent of any system, making it a true doomsday asset. In the event of a geopolitical crisis, gold can be physically transferred at any time, making it the ultimate safe haven. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is built on electricity, a network, and computing power; ownership depends on private keys, and transactions rely on network connections.

Secondly, Bitcoin's market performance is increasingly resembling that of a highly volatile technology asset. When liquidity is ample and risk appetite rises, Bitcoin often leads the market. However, against the backdrop of rising interest rates and heightened risk aversion, it also experiences institutional selling. Currently, the market tends to believe that Bitcoin has not yet truly transformed from a "risk asset" to a "safe-haven asset"; it possesses both the adventurous side of high growth and high volatility, and the safe-haven side of resisting uncertainty. This "risk-safe-haven" ambiguity may only be verified by more cycles and more crises. Until then, the market still tends to view Bitcoin as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, linking its performance to technology stocks.

Perhaps only when Bitcoin demonstrates a stable value-preserving ability similar to gold can this perception truly be reversed. However, Bitcoin will not lose its long-term value; it still possesses scarcity, global transferability, and the advantages of a decentralized system. It's just that in today's market environment, its role is more complex, serving as a pricing anchor, a trading asset, and a speculative tool.

The consensus is that gold is a safe-haven asset against inflation, while Bitcoin is a growth asset with stronger yield potential. Gold is suitable for preserving value during periods of economic uncertainty, with low volatility (16%) and a small maximum drawdown (-18%), serving as a "ballast" for assets. Bitcoin is suitable for allocation when liquidity is ample and risk appetite is rising, with an annualized return as high as 60.6%, but its volatility is also high (72%), with a maximum drawdown of -76%. This is not an either-or choice, but rather a combination of asset allocation strategies.

V. KOL Viewpoints Summary

In this round of macroeconomic repricing, gold and Bitcoin are playing different roles. Gold will act more like a "shield" to resist external shocks such as war, inflation, and sovereign risks; while Bitcoin will act like a "spear" to seize the value-added opportunities brought about by technological change.

OKX CEO Xu Mingxing (@star_okx) emphasized that gold is a product of old trust, while Bitcoin is a new cornerstone of trust for the future. Choosing gold in 2026 is like betting on a failing system. Bitget CEO Gracy Bitget stated that although market volatility is inevitable, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain unchanged, and he remains optimistic about its future performance. KOL KKaWSB cited Polymarket forecasts predicting that Bitcoin will outperform gold and the S&P 500 in 2026, believing that value realization will come.

KOL @BeiDao_98 offered an interesting technical perspective: Bitcoin's RSI relative to gold has fallen below 30 again, a signal that historically foreshadows an impending Bitcoin bull market. Renowned trader Vida @Vida_BWE went further, focusing on short-term market sentiment. He believes that after the surge led by gold and silver, the market is eager to find the next "dollar alternative asset," and therefore bought a small position in BTC, betting on FOMO (fear of missing out) in the coming weeks.

KOL @chengzi_95330 proposed a grander narrative. He believes that traditional hard assets such as gold and silver should first absorb the credit shock caused by currency devaluation, and only after they have fulfilled their role should Bitcoin enter the market. This "traditional first, digital later" approach may be precisely the story unfolding in the current market.

VI. Three suggestions for individual investors (for reference)

Faced with the difference in price increases between Bitcoin and gold and silver, the most common question among ordinary retail investors is: "Which should I invest in?" There is no standard answer to this question, but we can offer four practical suggestions:

Understand the positioning of each asset and clarify the purpose of allocation. Gold and silver still have strong "hedging" properties during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, making them suitable for defensive allocation. Bitcoin is currently more suitable for adding to positions when risk appetite rises and the technology growth logic is superior, but be careful not to use gold to gamble for overnight riches. To hedge against inflation and seek safe haven → buy gold; to achieve high long-term returns → buy Bitcoin (but be prepared to accept a -70% drawdown).

Don't fantasize that Bitcoin will always outperform everything. Bitcoin's growth comes from technological narratives, financial consensus, and institutional breakthroughs, not from a linear profit model. It won't outperform gold, the Nasdaq, or oil every year, but in the long run, its decentralized asset attributes still hold value. Don't completely dismiss it during short-term pullbacks, and don't blindly go all in during surges.

Build an asset portfolio and accept the reality that different assets play a role in different cycles. If you have a weak sense of global liquidity and limited risk tolerance, you might consider a combination of gold ETFs and a small amount of BTC to cope with different macroeconomic scenarios; if you have a stronger risk appetite, you can also combine ETH, AI-related assets, RWA and other emerging assets to build a portfolio with higher volatility.

4️⃣ Is it still a good time to buy gold and silver? Be cautious about chasing highs; prioritize buying on dips. In the long term, gold, favored by global central banks, and silver, with its industrial attributes, both remain valuable assets even during volatile periods. However, in the short term, they have already risen significantly and face technical downward pressure, as evidenced by the 3% single-day drop in gold on January 29th. If you are a long-term investor, consider waiting for a pullback before gradually buying, such as when gold is below $5000 or silver below $100. If you are a short-term speculator, pay attention to timing and avoid rushing in at the peak of market sentiment to be the last one holding the bag. In contrast, while Bitcoin has performed poorly, if liquidity expectations improve, it might present a window for buying at lower levels. Focusing on timing and avoiding chasing highs and lows is the most crucial defensive strategy for ordinary investors.

In conclusion: Understanding your positioning is key to survival!

When gold prices rise, no one questions the value of Bitcoin; when Bitcoin prices fall, it doesn't mean gold is the only answer. In this era that is reshaping the anchor of value, no single asset can satisfy all needs at once.

Gold and silver led the pack in 2024-2025. But looking at a longer timeframe of 12 years, Bitcoin's 213-fold return proves that while it may not be "digital gold," it represents the greatest asymmetric investment opportunity of our time. Last night's sharp drop in gold prices may mark the end of a short-term correction, or it could be the beginning of a larger pullback.

But for ordinary traders, what's truly important is understanding the role and positioning of different assets and establishing their own investment logic for surviving the cycle.

Good luck to everyone!