BTC Oversold at $78.5K: RSI Divergence and Strong S1 Support Test in Bearish Downtrend

Technical Summary

Bitcoin trades at $78,500 amid a sharp 6.25% 24h drop, piercing below MicroStrategy’s $76,037 cost basis for the first time since Oct 2023. Overall downtrend confirmed by Supertrend bearish signal and price below EMA200 ($103,957). Oversold conditions dominate with RSI(14) at 25.15 and Stochastic K/D at 16.72/17.87, positioning below Bollinger lower BAND ($79,390).

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

1D/3D/1W confluence reveals 9 strong levels: 2S/7R skewed bearish. 1W support at $74,508 (78/100⭐, Fibo 1.0, Keltner lower) anchors deeper retracement. 3D resistance clusters at $81,475-$94,073 (70-80/100⭐). Price hovers NEAR 1D pivot PP $78,810, with S1 $78,196 testing oversold bounce potential.

Support Zone Analysis

• S1 $75,727 (74/100⭐): High-conviction zone (-3.8% distance) via ATR lower, Fibo 0.0, prev day low $75,720, Donchian lower. MTF S1 $75,766 (79/100⭐) adds reinforcement.
• S2 $64,655 (46/100): Moderate Fibo 1.272 extension, RSI/Stoch OS confluence.
• Deeper: $58,878 (crash target, score 22), $50,580 (Fibo 1.618).

Immediate S5 $78,196 (-0.67%) blends pivot S1 and OS indicators, acting as minor ledge.

Resistance Zone Analysis

• R1 $80,417 (69/100⭐): +2.15% upside via Fibo 0.114, ATR upper, pivot R3 alignment. MTF R4 match.
• R2 $83,160 (61/100⭐): +5.64%, Ichimoku Tenkan, prev high $83,848.
• MTF clusters: $81,475 (70/100⭐, Fibo 0.114), $85,519 (76/100⭐, EMA100), $94,073 (80/100⭐, Ichimoku Senkou A).

EMA20 $87,377 and EMA50 $89,873 cap near-term rallies.

Indicator Deep Dive

RSI(14) 25.15 signals extreme oversold, potential bullish divergence if volume spikes. MACD bearish (-2493 line vs -1161 signal, negative histogram) confirms momentum fade. Price below all MAs (EMA20/50/200, SMA50/200) reinforces downtrend. ATR 2974 implies 3-4% daily swings. OBV likely declining (inferred from volume $39B amid drop). Bollinger position below lower band underscores capitulation.

Pattern Recognition

Downtrend channel intact, recent 24h low $75,720 tests Fibo 0.0 retracement from $116,400 high. Bear flag breakdown targets S2 $64,655. Oversold Stoch/RSI hints at short-term hammer reversal at S1, but no bullish engulfing yet.

Price Scenarios

• Bull: S1 bounce to R2 $83,160 (5.6% risk/reward 1:2+), then EMA20 retest.
• Bear: S1 break to S2 $64,655 (-17.6%), Fibo extensions align with crash targets.
• Base: Range $75,727-$80,417 consolidation, pivot PP $78,810 midline.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Long S1 $75,727 target R1 $80,417: 2.4% reward vs 3.8% risk (1:0.6 poor). Short R1 breakdown to S1: 3.8% reward vs 2.2% risk (1:1.7 favorable). High ATR demands tight stops; favor shorts in downtrend.

Technical Conclusion

BTC eyes critical S1 $75,727 test amid oversold extremes. Bearish MACD/Supertrend prevails, but RSI bounce could spark relief rally to $80,400. Monitor volume for confirmation; downside risks to $74,500 MTF support loom on failure.