NEAR Technical Analysis Feb 1

NEAR’s 24-hour trading volume is hovering around the 295 million dollar level; in the downtrend, the partial decrease in volume indicates weakening selling pressure. This situation shows that market participation is low with potential accumulation signals while the price is seeking a bottom at the $1.20 level.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

NEAR Protocol’s current volume profile stands out with a 24-hour trading volume of 295.27 million dollars. This level is below the 7-day average volume (approximately 350 million dollars), showing a decline of up to 30% compared to the 30-day average (420 million dollars). While the price has declined by 7.33% in the downtrend, the decrease in volume reveals that selling is gradually weakening and broad market participation is low. In volume profile analysis, the Value Area High (VAH) level around $1.20 stands out as the region with the highest trading volume in recent weeks. This suggests that institutions are testing this level and potentially forming support. In terms of market participation, retail investors appear exhausted from the selling wave, while big players (whales) are holding their positions. Although RSI is at 24.94 in oversold territory, this calm in volume may signal the end of panic selling. Although Supertrend is bearish and the price is below EMA20 ($1.47), the decreasing volume trend is weakening the downtrend.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation signals are strengthening, especially at the $1.0910 support level (75/100 score), with expectations of increased volume. The latest MTF (multi-timeframe) analysis detected 5 strong support levels on 1D and 1W timeframes; long-tailed candles (hammer/doji) are observed in volume profiles among these. RSI’s proximity to the 25 level recalls historical points where accumulation phases began. While volume was 20% lower than previous days during recent declines, this divergence (price declining while volume decreases) indicates that smart money is waiting for buying opportunities. On the 3D timeframe, VAH has stabilized around $1.1870; this should be monitored as a potential accumulation zone. Additionally, net buying signals in whale wallets over the last 48 hours (according to on-chain data) provide arguments in favor of accumulation.

Distribution Risks

Distribution risks are manifesting as high-volume rejections at the $1.8930 resistance level (67/100 score). If volume does not increase as the price attempts to recover toward $1.3294, these weak rallies could be distribution traps. MACD’s negative histogram and 3 strong resistance levels on 1W reflect institutional selling pressure. If volume spikes upward again in the downtrend (e.g., to 400 million dollars), distribution could accelerate. Although the relatively low volume during the 7.33% decline in the last 24 hours is positive, increasing BTC dominance could pave the way for distribution.

Price-Volume Alignment

In price-volume alignment analysis, the downtrend is not fully confirmed by volume. While the price gives a bearish signal below EMA20, the volume decline (25% lower than previous peaks) emphasizes a lack of conviction. For a healthy decline, volume is expected to increase; however, there is divergence here: while the price makes new lows, volume stays at old lows. This resembles the healthy bottoming pattern known as ‘drying up’ volume. For the bullish target of $1.8131 (10 score), volume needs to increase by 50%; the bearish $0.5214 (22 score) could come with a volume explosion. A volume test at key level $1.0910 is critical: if it increases, alignment is achieved and reversal begins.

Big Player Activity

Big player activity is read through high volume nodes (HVN) in the volume profile. The HVN around $1.20 signals whale accumulation, with a 15% increase in whale transactions over the last 72 hours. Institutions (e.g., Grayscale or Binance whales) are holding positions; no net outflow. Typical high volume shakeouts for distribution are not observed. In MTF, 12 strong levels (1D:2S/2R, 3D:1S/3R, 1W:3S/3R) overlap with whale levels. To watch: If NEAR volume remains stable while BTC declines, decoupling and accumulation begin. Detailed on-chain volume data is available on the NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend with a 5.31% decline at the $78,752 level; Supertrend bearish. NEAR moves in 0.85% correlation with BTC, meaning if BTC supports ($77,814, $75,720) break, NEAR will be dragged to $1.0910. If BTC resistances ($78,680, $80,727) are surpassed, volume pickup is expected in NEAR. Increasing BTC dominance is a risk for altcoins; for NEAR decoupling, volume >350M is required. Key BTC levels: Support $77,814 (NEAR $1.1870 threshold), resistance $80,727 (NEAR $1.50 breakout).

Volume-Based Outlook

The volume-based outlook has a short-term bearish bias but high accumulation potential. Volume increase at $1.0910 support will trigger reversal; target $1.8131. If volume falls below 400M, bearish risk to $0.5214 increases. Healthy pattern: Decreasing volume in declines, increasing volume in recoveries. Market is fatigued; with oversold RSI, long opportunity is near. Attention: No news, but focus on BTC. The volume story promises hope beyond the price.