SUI Technical Analysis Feb 2

SUI is signaling in the oversold region with RSI at 26.44, while sustaining bearish momentum with MACD’s negative histogram; although it carries short-term reaction buying potential, the overall trend is under downward pressure.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

SUI’s current price is positioned at the 1.14 dollar level, showing a 2.84% rise in the last 24 hours but staying within the daily range of 1.06-1.16. The overall trend direction is confirmed as downward; the price is trading below EMA20 (1.41 dollars) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with resistance level prominent at 1.43 dollars. From a momentum perspective, volume at 552.58 million dollars draws a supportive picture, but this volume increase aligns with the price reacting from low levels yet is not strong enough to reverse the trend strength. When examining multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/0 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances on 1W, indicating an overall resistance-weighted picture. This configuration shows that momentum remains weak and downward pressure dominates; however, the RSI’s oversold region may pave the way for a short-term momentum surge. From a volume confirmation standpoint, while the recent rise was supported by volume, the distribution patterns point to profit-taking rather than accumulation, emphasizing the limited trend strength.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI (14) value at 26.44 is clearly in the oversold region (below 30), a level that can typically trigger reaction buys but whose strength is limited within the current downtrend. No regular bearish divergence is observed on the daily chart; as the price makes new lows, RSI is also testing similar low levels, confirming downward synchronized momentum. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, signs of hidden bullish divergence are beginning to emerge: While the price bottomed at 1.06 dollars, RSI held at a higher 26.44 compared to the previous low of 22.5, which may indicate weakening bearish momentum. Weekly RSI is hovering around 35 in the neutral zone with no divergence, supporting overall trend strength. This combination shows that RSI carries short-term buy signal potential but long-term sell pressure may continue.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

The oversold region (RSI <30) is a critical threshold for SUI; according to historical data, average pullbacks of 15% have been observed from this level, but in downtrends, these bounces have usually remained temporary. The current 26.44 value, combined with 1.0328 dollar support, may form a potential base, but in case of a breakdown, RSI falling below 20 could trigger deeper sells. From a momentum oscillator confluence perspective, Stochastic is also oversold (around 15), and this dual signal provides confluence for short-term recovery.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

The MACD indicator is in a bearish configuration; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. Although histogram bars in the last 24 hours have not dipped deeper into the negative, stabilization around the -0.045 level signals that momentum has not exhausted. The daily crossover is confirmed bearish, while on the 4-hour chart, signal line convergence can be observed but no bullish crossover yet. Volume-weighted MACD confirms slight histogram narrowing in the recent rise, providing a weak hint of easing sell pressure, though the overall dynamic remains bearish. To watch is the histogram narrowing toward the zero line; if this occurs, momentum could neutralize and combine with the RSI oversold signal to trigger a bounce.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Since the price remains below EMA20 (1.41 dollars), the short-term trend is bearish; there is congestion between EMA9 and EMA12 but the ribbon is sloping downward. This dynamic reflects weak short-term trend strength in momentum, and the price approaching around 1.1229 dollars to EMA50 is likely to be rejected there.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

The price is in contact with medium-term EMA50 (around 1.15), and if this level breaks, EMA200 (1.30s) remains distant. In the EMA ribbon, long-term lines are sloping downward and expanding, indicating trend strength in favor of bears. Potential support at 1.0328 dollars (high score), aligned with EMA100.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is in a downtrend at the 78,042 dollar level and Supertrend is giving a bearish signal; main supports at 77,445, 74,604, and 63,235 dollars. As BTC dominance rises, altcoins are under pressure, with SUI’s 0.75 correlation to BTC – if BTC slips below 77,445, a quick drop to 1.03 support is expected for SUI. Conversely, if BTC breaks above 79,396 resistance, room to move to 1.22 could open for SUI, but current BTC momentum mandates a cautious approach for altcoins. Check detailed data for SUI Spot Analysis and SUI Futures Analysis.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

The synthesis of momentum indicators emphasizes bearish dominance in SUI: Although RSI carries oversold bounce potential, MACD histogram expansion and EMA ribbon downward slope sustain sell pressure. Critical support at 1.0328 (score 70/100), a breakdown brings bearish target 0.5740 (score 22) into play; if resistance at 1.2258 (score 69) is broken, bullish 1.6962 (score 13) could come into play. Volume confirmation is weak, MTF resistance weight keeps trend strength in favor of bears. In the short term, 1.15-1.22 band could be tested with RSI-MACD confluence, but BTC downtrend limits altcoin momentum. Investors should closely monitor 1.0328 support and BTC 77,445 level.