XRP is clearly trending in a downtrend with LH/LL structure; critical resistance is being tested at $1.62. If Break of Structure (BOS) occurs above $1.6787, it could signal a trend change; otherwise, a drop below $1.4774 is expected.
Market Structure Overview
XRP’s current market structure reflects a classic downtrend. Instead of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) pattern dominates. With the current price at $1.62, a slight recovery of %2.18 in the last 24 hours is observed, but remaining below EMA20 ($1.85) confirms the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and resistance is positioned at $1.91. Although RSI at 29.68 is approaching the oversold region, MACD with a negative histogram shows downward momentum. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/4 resistances on 1D, 1S/2R on 3D, 2S/3R distribution on 1W. This indicates a resistance-heavy and bearish overall structure. The market is holding the last swing low at $1.4774 (score: 68/100), but failed to break the upper resistance at $1.6787 (74/100). In structural targets, a bearish breakdown to $1.0082 (score:22) appears more likely, while bullish continuation to $2.2411 (score:31) carries low probability.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, HH/HL structure must form: each new high higher than the previous (HH), each low higher than the previous (HL). A slight HL formation around $1.53 has been observed recently in XRP, but this does not break the general LH/LL structure. The %2.18 daily rise from $1.62 is supported by RSI bouncing from oversold. For potential bullish BOS, the $1.6787 swing high must be broken; surpassing this level could trigger HH formation toward $1.7854 and $1.9595. However, remaining below EMA20 and Supertrend bearish signal weaken these signs. Even with short-term recovery, a real trend change requires CHoCH (Change of Character): transition from LH/LL to HH/HL.
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is confirmed with LH/LL: lower highs from the last swing high $1.6787 and LLs toward the $1.4774 swing low are forming. MACD is bearish with expanding negative histogram, RSI supports the downward momentum. MTF shows excess resistance ($1.6787, $1.7854, $1.9595), increasing downward pressure. BOS below $1.4774 would target a new LL at $1.0082. In this structure, short-term rallies can be seen as selling opportunities; LLs must hold for trend continuation.
Break of Structure (BOS) Levels
BOS (Break of Structure) is the key to trend change: for bullish BOS, a close above the last LH at $1.6787 (score:74/100) is required; this invalidates the structure, opening the door to HH/HL and pointing to $1.9595. Bearish BOS occurs below the $1.4774 (68/100) swing low, confirming LL and activating the $1.0082 target. Medium-term resistances at $1.7854 (69/100) and $1.9595 (74/100) are reinforced by Supertrend at $1.91. Daily range is trapped between $1.53-$1.66; breakout direction will determine the structure. For CHoCH, hold above $1.6787 in bullish scenario, break below $1.4774 in bearish. Lack of news flow highlights the technical structure.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs form the LH structure: $1.6787 (74/100) is the most critical; if not surpassed, it creates selling pressure as resistance. $1.7854 (69/100) is medium-term LH, $1.9595 (74/100) is a strong high – overlapping with Supertrend $1.91. These levels are pivots for BOS; momentum accelerates on breakout. The %2.18 recovery from $1.62 approached $1.66 but was rejected at $1.6787, confirming LH.
Recent Swing Lows
Last swing low $1.4774 (68/100) is the main support: it holds the LLs; if broken, bearish targets activate. Daily low $1.53 is a short-term HL candidate but does not change the overall structure. This low is the base of recovery; holding it slows the decline but LL risk is high. Support breakdown would be bearish CHoCH.
Bitcoin Correlation
Although BTC is at $78,566 (%2.60 up), it is in a downtrend; main supports at $77,398, $74,604, $63,235. Resistances at $79,396, $83,548, $86,289. BTC Supertrend is bearish, rising dominance is risky for altcoins. XRP has high correlation with BTC (~0.85); if BTC drops below $77k, XRP tests $1.4774. BTC BOS above $79k supports XRP rally to $1.6787. BTC decline crushes alts, beware!
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominates, BOS levels should be monitored. Bullish invalidation with close above $1.6787 transitioning to HH/HL; bearish continuation with LL below $1.4774. Short-term consolidation at $1.62, MTF resistance weight favors selling. Detailed data available in XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis. Structures are dynamic, continuous monitoring required. (Word count: 1056)
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-technical-analysis-february-2-2026-market-structure
