SUI showed a weekly 3.93% rise within the main downtrend, reacting in the $1.07-$1.16 range, but RSI at 27 signals oversold conditions, and the $1.03 support zone is being tested for a critical accumulation phase. Despite the bearish market structure, strategic patience is required under BTC correlation and macro pressures.
Weekly Market Summary for SUI
SUI closed the week at $1.15 with a 3.93% increase, but this move remained confined to the narrow $1.07-$1.16 trading range. Volume profile was at a moderate $407.92M, while the primary trend is still defined as a downtrend. Momentum indicators (RSI 27.01) point to oversold territory, but MACD’s negative histogram maintains bearish momentum. Trading below the short-term EMA20 ($1.39) strengthens the short-term bearish bias. In the big picture, SUI is seeking signals of transition from the market cycle’s distribution phase to potential accumulation, but the trend filter highlights bearish resistance at $1.44. For position traders, testing the $1.03 major support this week could be an inflection point in the big picture. For more detailed data, check the SUI detailed spot analysis page.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear downtrend character; higher timeframes (1W/1M) dominate with lower highs and lower lows formation. SUI continues to stay below EMA20 ($1.39) and higher EMA50/200 levels, keeping the bearish trend intact. From a market cycle perspective, a distribution phase has been observed since the peaks at the end of 2025, but the recent 4% gain in the last weeks may signal trend exhaustion. Market structure suggests that a bullish reversal is difficult without breaking the downtrend; however, RSI divergences may indicate a long-term bottoming process. From a portfolio manager perspective, the monthly horizon should balance $0.57 downside risk against $1.67 upside objective, optimizing the R/R ratio for strategic entries.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
Recent accumulation/distribution patterns show mixed signals: volume spikes at the $1.07 low exhibit accumulation phase characteristics (score 77/100 support), while distribution patterns are emerging at upper range resistance $1.16-$1.22. According to Wyckoff methodology, we are in the secondary test phase; $1.03 major support confluence (1D/3D/1W) carries accumulation spring potential. Although the bearish MACD histogram supports distribution, oversold RSI allows for smart money accumulation. Position traders should monitor volume profile and OBV divergences; if distribution topping occurs, it could lead to $0.57.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily chart, SUI shows limited confluence from 10 strong levels with 1S/1R: Main support $1.0328 (77/100 score), resistance $1.2251 (62/100). RSI at 27 indicates high oversold bounce potential, but MACD bearish cross sustains short-term selling pressure. Daily candles exhibit doji-like indecision; failure to break below $1.07 low did not create bullish confluence. Remaining below EMA20 keeps the daily bias bearish, but a support hold could test $1.22 for multi-timeframe confluence. Leverage flows in SUI futures market data also support the daily view.
Weekly Chart View
The weekly perspective shows a clearer bearish structure: resistance-heavy breakdown with 2S/4R (upper level $1.44). Weekly close at $1.15 below EMA20 preserves the weekly downtrend; however, the +3.93% change signals a hammer-like reversal. Market phase is distribution-dominant, but $1.03 confluence support (1W strong level) may indicate weekly bottoming. Trend remains intact as long as $1.2251 resistance is not broken; confluence of support across timeframes is key for strategic long entries.
Critical Decision Points
Key inflection points: Major support $1.0328 (multi-TF confluence, 77/100 score) – hold triggers bullish flip, breach leads to $0.5740 downside cascade. Resistance $1.2251 (62/100), followed by $1.44 cluster – breakout activates $1.6771 upside objective. 3D timeframe adds 2S/1R confluence, emphasizing $1.07 secondary support. Market structure at downtrend inflection point at $1.03; traders should use these levels for invalidation. Follow the SUI and other analyses section for all analyses.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
Bullish Scenario
Bullish scenario: Long positions on $1.0328 support hold + $1.2251 breakout. First target $1.44 (trend filter), extension $1.6771 (30 score). Stop-loss below $1.03, optimize R/R 1:3+. Wait for oversold RSI divergence and accumulation confirmation; if BTC stabilizes, altcoin rotation opportunity.
Bearish Scenario
Bearish scenario: Short entry on $1.0328 breach, target $0.5740 (22 score). Resistance rejection at $1.2251 triggers. Stop above $1.16, downtrend intact. MACD supports bearish momentum; if distribution phase deepens, cascade risk is high.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC in downtrend at $78,822 (despite 24h +3.68%, Supertrend bearish), caution signal for SUI: BTC supports $78,447/$74,604 breach increases alt drag. If resistances $79,326/$83,548 break, SUI tests $1.22+ with BTC correlation (high beta). BTC dominance rise triggers altcoin distribution; key BTC levels to watch: $78k hold defends SUI support, below increases $1.03 breach probability. Altcoin positions should be hedged with BTC trend filter.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
To watch next week: $1.0328 support hold/reaction, $1.2251 resistance test, BTC $78k dynamics. RSI divergence and volume confirmations signal reversal; if downtrend remains intact, patience. Strategic outlook bearish biased, $1.03 pivotal for accumulation setups.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/sui-technical-analysis-february-3-2026-weekly-strategy
