TON showed a 3.85% rise in 24 hours within its dominant downtrend structure, reaching the $1.37 level, but since it couldn’t stay above EMA20 ($1.51), it gives a limited recovery signal. RSI at 31.93 is approaching the oversold region, MACD is bearish, and Supertrend resistance is prominent at $1.60; critical support at $1.25 should be monitored.
Executive Summary
TON’s technical chart reflects a limited short-term recovery under overall downtrend dominance. While the price stabilizes at $1.37, despite RSI giving an oversold signal, the negative MACD histogram and failure to hold above EMA20 limit upside potential. Critical support zone is in the $1.25-$1.37 range, resistance in the $1.38-$1.48 band; Bitcoin’s bearish Supertrend is creating pressure on altcoins. In risk/reward ratio, bearish targets ($0.95) carry low confidence score (22%), while bullish target $1.81 (46%) may offer a medium-term opportunity but volume support is insufficient. Strategic approach: Focus on support hold, follow TON Spot Analysis or TON Futures Analysis on upside breakout.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
TON’s big picture continues under downtrend dominance; the price is positioned at the lower end of the descending channel in weekly and daily timeframes. The 3.85% rise in the last 24 hours ($1.32-$1.39 range) indicates a local reaction buy but the overall trend structure remains intact. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and marks $1.60 as a significant resistance. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) detects 13 strong levels: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1 support on 3D, 3 supports/4 resistances on 1W distribution, confirming the structural strength of the downtrend. The limited recovery stems from oversold conditions, requiring a close above EMA20 ($1.51) for upward movement.
Structural Levels
Structural supports stand out at $1.2500 (score: 73/100, strong weekly low) and $1.3665 (score: 64/100, daily pivot); a drop below these levels could accelerate bearish momentum to $0.95. Resistance zones are lined up at $1.3768 (score: 70/100, near-term high), $1.4340 (score: 61/100), and $1.4790 (score: 63/100). The price is currently balancing at $1.37 above the $1.3665 support; consolidation in this range signals calm before volatility.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 31.93 is close to the oversold region, carrying short-term reaction buy potential but trend change is not confirmed without crossing above 50. MACD is bearish; negative histogram and crossover below the signal line show momentum remains in decline. Secondary momentum indicators like Stochastic and CCI also exhibit similar bearish bias; persistence in the 20-30 range on RSI should be monitored for local bottom formation.
Trend Indicators
Price is absent above EMA20 ($1.51) and EMA50 ($1.62), giving bearish short/medium-term signal. Supertrend is in bearish mode, trailing $1.60 resistance. Price below Ichimoku Cloud, Tenkan/Kijun crossover bearish; this configuration supports downtrend continuation. Bollinger Bands contraction signals squeeze before volatility explosion – probable upside breakout target $1.48, downside $1.25.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: $1.3665 (64/100, local low/pivot confluence), $1.2500 (73/100, strong psychological/weekly support, Fibonacci 0.618 retracement). If this level doesn’t hold, risk of drop to $1.10 increases. Resistance: $1.3768 (70/100, 24h high/Fib 0.236), $1.4340 (61/100), $1.4790 (63/100, near EMA50). On upside breakout, $1.8060 bullish target (score 46/100, medium confidence). Multi-TF confluence: 1W resistance $1.48, 3D support $1.25 – these levels have 80%+ reaction rate, ideal for trade setups.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume at $45.64M is moderate; insufficient volume increase during the rise (3.85% gain vs no 20% volume rise) confirms weak buying interest. OBV (On-Balance Volume) shows negative divergence, supporting downtrend volume. VWAP around $1.35, above price – institutional participation low. In volume profile, $1.37 POC (Point of Control) dominates; $60M+ volume breakout necessary for increase.
Risk Assessment
From current $1.37, bullish target $1.8060 (risk/reward: 1:2.3, 32% rise, score 46/100), bearish $0.9475 (1:3.1 downside, score 22/100 low confidence). Main risks: BTC downtrend pressure, fakeouts in low volume, overall market risk-off. Positioning: For long, $1.3665 stop-loss, targets $1.48/1.81; short invalidation above $1.3768. Expect volatility 4-6%, max drawdown 15% (support break). Positive scenario: RSI divergence + volume spike; negative: BTC below $78K.
Bitcoin Correlation
TON, like altcoins, has high correlation with BTC (0.85+ 1W), BTC at $78,570 in downtrend (Supertrend bearish). BTC supports $78,466/$76,306 should be monitored – breakdown triggers 10%+ drop in altcoins, pushing TON to $1.25. BTC resistance above $79,339/83,548 opens buying rally, clearing room for TON bullish targets ($1.48+). Dominance rise (BTC Supertrend bearish) poses altcoin rotation risk; BTC levels primary filter in TON trades.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
TON chart offers oversold bounce potential within downtrend, but EMA’s and MACD bearish confluence limit upside. $1.37 consolidation prepares for $1.3768 breakout or $1.3665 breakdown; volume confirmation essential. Medium-term BTC dependency high, long bias if $1.25 holds, short on breakdown. Strategy: Range trade ($1.37-$1.38), 3-5x leverage on futures. For detailed spot/futures, review TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis. Overall outlook: Caution – wait for confluence for upside momentum.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/ton-comprehensive-technical-analysis-detailed-review-of-february-3-2026
