Bitcoin Finds Buyers Amid Extreme Fear

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market finally saw dip buyers step in after prices slid to fresh 2026 lows, but the follow-through remains shaky. BTC bounced strongly from the $74,500 area on Monday and buyers are now trying to hold the price above $79,000. Still, repeated selling near intraday highs suggests that this correction may not be over yet. Analyst PlanC described the $75,000–$80,000 zone as the deepest pullback of the current bull cycle, while sentiment indicators paint a market gripped by fear. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 14, firmly in “extreme fear,” its lowest reading this year. Santiment noted that such heavy pessimism has often marked important turning points in the past, as markets tend to move against crowd expectations. However, not all traders are convinced the bottom is in. Betting markets are leaning bearish, with Polymarket odds pointing to a growing chance of BTC slipping below $65,000 in the months ahead.

Despite the fear, long-term conviction players continue to accumulate. Strategy added another 855 BTC last week at around $88,000 per coin, even as Bitcoin briefly dipped below the firm’s average cost for the first time since 2023. The company now holds over 713,000 BTC, reinforcing its aggressive long-term stance. At the same time, pressure remains visible in institutional products. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen heavy outflows over the past two weeks, leaving the average ETF buyer sitting underwater near an $87,800 cost basis. This highlights why rallies are still being sold into rather than chased.

On the infrastructure side, Tether made waves by launching its open-source Bitcoin MiningOS, aiming to lower barriers for miners and push decentralization further. The move reflects continued investment in Bitcoin’s long-term backbone, even as prices remain volatile in the short term.

The ups and downs of the US manufacturing index from mid-2020 through 2023 have closely tracked Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. A key economic signal is now flashing strength again, and analysts believe it could mark a potential turning point for BTC, which is currently trading near $78,000. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6 in January, well above market expectations of around 48.5, and ended a long 26-month stretch of contraction. This is the strongest reading since August 2022 and signals that US manufacturing activity is back in expansion mode. The PMI is widely followed by investors and policymakers because it reflects the overall health of the economy, inflation pressures, and the likely direction of monetary policy. Readings above 50 point to economic growth, while levels below 50 suggest contraction. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to move in the same direction as this index, with both rising and falling in sync during the 2020–2023 period. With Bitcoin recently touching a 10-month low near $75,400, analysts say the rebound in the PMI could support a shift in market sentiment and lay the groundwork for a recovery phase in crypto.

The crypto market is showing early signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off, but confidence is still fragile. Bitcoin holding above the $75,000–$80,000 zone is encouraging, yet sellers remain active on every bounce. A sustained move back above $85,000 would help calm nerves, while failure to do so could invite another test of lower liquidity zones. Extreme fear suggests downside may be limited, but confirmation is still missing. Ethereum and altcoins remain highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s direction and broader risk sentiment. Continued ETF outflows could cap upside in the near term. On the flip side, steady accumulation by long-term holders hints that smart money is positioning quietly. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as traders react to macro headlines and sentiment swings. For now, patience is key, with selective dip buying favored over aggressive leverage.

Bitcoin broke below the November 21, 2025 low at $80,600 over the weekend and slid deeper into the sell-off, tagging the major support near $74,508 on Monday. The sharp drop pushed the RSI into oversold territory, which usually signals that selling pressure may be stretched in the short term. This opens the door for a relief bounce, but traders should not confuse a bounce with a trend reversal. Any recovery is likely to face heavy selling between $80,600 and $84,000, a zone where trapped buyers may look to exit. If BTC fails to hold above $74,508 and gets rejected from the overhead resistance, the risk of a deeper breakdown increases. Below this level, the next major downside magnet sits near $60,000. Bulls will only start to regain control if price can reclaim and close above the key moving averages, which would suggest that the worst of the panic selling may be behind us and that $74,508 could act as a temporary floor.

Ether also saw strong downside pressure, breaking below the $2,623 support and sliding to the next major demand zone near $2,111. The RSI has dropped into oversold levels, hinting that sellers may be running out of momentum in the near term. This raises the chances of a short-term bounce, but any recovery is likely to run into supply near the 20-day EMA around $2,833. A weak bounce or a sharp rejection from that level would confirm that bears are still firmly in control. If ETH loses the $2,111 support, the next leg lower could drag price toward $1,750. Bulls need to reclaim the moving averages to signal that a more meaningful recovery is underway and that the breakdown may have been overextended.

BNB suffered a clean breakdown, slicing through both the uptrend line and the key $790 support, showing aggressive selling pressure. Buyers are now trying to defend the $730 level, but confidence remains fragile. Any rebound toward $790 is expected to attract sellers, as that level has now flipped into resistance. A strong rejection there would increase the odds of a drop toward $700. If BNB can manage a daily close back above $790, it would suggest demand is returning at lower levels. In that case, price could attempt a move back toward the moving averages, although sellers are likely to defend that zone aggressively.

Trader’s Outlook:
Bitcoin is deeply oversold, which increases the chances of a short-term relief rally, but the trend remains bearish until key moving averages are reclaimed. The $74,500 zone is critical for BTC, and losing it decisively could accelerate downside toward $60,000. Traders should expect strong selling between $80,000 and $84,000 if price bounces. Ether is showing similar oversold conditions, but structure remains weak below $2,833. As long as ETH stays under the 20-day EMA, rallies are likely to be sold. A break below $2,111 would expose ETH to another sharp leg down toward $1,750. BNB remains one of the weaker large-cap charts after losing $790. The $730 level is the last near-term support bulls need to hold. Any bounce toward $790 should be treated with caution until proven otherwise. Overall market sentiment remains defensive, favoring short-term trades over long-term positioning. Volatility is expected to stay high as the market searches for a durable bottom. Patience and strict risk management remain essential in this phase.

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