Roblox (RBLX) Stock: Can Thursday Earnings Reverse 20% Drop?

TLDR

• Roblox releases Q4 2025 results Thursday after market close with analysts expecting $2.08 billion in revenue
• Wall Street forecasts a $0.47 per share loss compared to $0.33 loss in Q4 2024
• Stock down 20% year-to-date despite daily active users projected to jump 65% to 141.31 million
• Options market pricing in 15.03% move after earnings announcement
• Canaccord maintains Buy rating despite cutting price target from $160 to $140

Roblox announces fourth quarter earnings Thursday evening. The gaming platform has seen its stock slide 20% this year heading into the report.

Roblox Corporation, RBLX

Analysts project $2.08 billion in quarterly revenue. That marks 109% growth versus the same quarter last year.

The loss estimate sits at $0.47 per share. This widens from the $0.33 per share loss reported in Q4 2024.

Bookings are expected to reach $2.07 billion. Last year’s Q4 bookings came in at $1.36 billion.

User Metrics Show Strong Growth

Daily active users should hit 141.31 million for the quarter. That’s up from 85.30 million in the year-ago period.

Total hours engaged are forecast at 32.38 billion. The metric stood at 18.70 billion in Q4 2024.

Geographic expansion continues across all regions. US and Canada DAUs are projected at 23.83 million versus 18.00 million previously.

Europe estimates reach 33.33 million DAUs from 21.10 million. Asia-Pacific forecasts show 44.26 million, climbing from 22.30 million.

Rest of world projections stand at 42.53 million compared to 23.80 million last year. Growth remains consistent globally.

Analyst Views Mixed on Near-Term Outlook

Canaccord analyst Jason Tilchen recently lowered his price target to $140 from $160. He kept his Buy rating intact.

Tilchen highlighted improved user engagement and AI search capabilities. Popular games have driven increased platform activity.

Management’s cautious 2026 guidance has created pressure on shares. New age verification requirements and infrastructure spending raise concerns.

The analyst still expects strong user and revenue trends going forward. Long-term fundamentals remain intact despite near-term challenges.

Cathie Wood’s ARK funds purchased 120,812 shares on January 3. The transaction totaled approximately $8.15 million across two ETFs.

What Options Activity Reveals

Options traders anticipate major price movement after the announcement. The implied move calculated from at-the-money straddles sits at 15.03%.

This suggests the market expects volatility following results. Traders are positioning for a swing in either direction.

Wall Street consensus shows a Moderate Buy rating overall. Twelve analysts rate it Buy, seven say Hold, and one recommends Sell.

The average analyst price target lands at $118.26 per share. Current levels suggest potential upside around 80.83%.

Estimate revisions have trended downward recently. The consensus EPS forecast dropped 11.3% over the past month.

Revenue estimates have held more stable at $2.07 billion according to some sources. Slight variations exist between analyst projections.

The stock has fallen 11% over the past year. Heavy spending and slower bookings growth have weighed on investor sentiment throughout 2025.

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