Bitcoin Shows Weakness but Could Rebound Toward $70K as US Data Arrives

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is showing weakness intraday ahead of major US economic data releases
• Positive data could trigger a Bitcoin rebound to $70k or higher
• Positive assertions by Michael Saylor are likely to cut the Bitcoin fear

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show price weakness. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $66,937.83, down by 3.02% in the day. However, the price drop has been accompanied by a decline in Bitcoin trading volumes. Bitcoin trading volumes currently stand at $42.26 billion, down by 13.64% in the day. 

This drop in volume is an indicator that the average holder may no longer be keen to sell. It is a good sign that the panic selling that has characterized BTC price action is over. There are institutional indicators that only resilient holders now dominate the market.

Michael Saylor Won’t Sell Bitcoin Even In a Prolonged Bear Market

One of them is Michael Saylor’s announcement that they are not keen on liquidating their Bitcoin holdings, even in a prolonged bear market. Saylor’s assertions point to Strategy’s willingness to refinance its debt to avoid being forced to sell its Bitcoin. This has likely removed the market’s fear that a bear market could force Strategy to liquidate its Bitcoin. For a company that holds 700k Bitcoin, such a liquidation, investors feared, could send the price down by unprecedented proportions.

Bithumb Mistake Points to Bitcoin Infrastructure Weakness

Despite the conviction by long-term investors such as Michael Saylor, short sellers remain in control. Short seller conviction is driven by Bitcoin’s clear downtrend at the moment. Multiple macro factors support the ongoing short selling of Bitcoin.

One is that investors are starting to question the digital infrastructure that enables large-scale Bitcoin adoption. This became clear when Bithumb mistakenly distributed $40 billion in Bitcoin to its users. While the mistake was quickly reversed and most of the Bitcoin recovered, the whole debacle sent the wrong message. It gave the impression that the infrastructure has weaknesses, a fact that could steer institutions away from Bitcoin for a while.

Federal Reserve Governor Says Bitcoin Post-Election Euphoria Waning 

Assertions by a US Federal Reserve governor have also exacerbated Bitcoin’s price weakness. The governor noted that euphoria around Bitcoin post the election of Donald Trump is over. Such remarks point to medium-term weakness and could see more investors stay away from Bitcoin in the short term. The result is that Bitcoin could be headed lower, at least in the short term.

Upcoming US Data Could Trigger Bitcoin Rebound

However, it is not all doom and gloom for Bitcoin. The US today is set to release a series of economic data later today. At 08:30 EST. The US will release data on real personal consumption expenditures, GDP estimates, international trade, and personal income and outlays.

If these data points point to strength in the US economy, risk-on assets could rally. Bitcoin, which is already massively undervalued after multi-month price corrections, stands to benefit the most. That’s because it offers investors the potential for higher gains than other risk-on assets, such as stocks. 

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Breaches Critical Support Level

Bitcoin’s correction over the last 24 hours has seen it push through the $67,888 support level. If the price action continues, Bitcoin may fall to $64,733, the next key short-term support level.

On the other hand, if the data set from the US today triggers a rebound, the key level to watch would be $67,888, which is now resistance. A rally through this level could see Bitcoin retest $70k in the short term. Of these scenarios, the odds are higher that the price slide will continue until the US data is released.