Gold (XAU/USD) Price Prediction: Gold Tests $5,100 Triangle Resistance as SPDR Signals Strong Bullish Momentum Near Highs

As of February 11, 2026, gold has held above the $5,000 support cluster, with short-term patterns forming a symmetrical triangle. Analysts note that both technical signals and macro factors, such as DXY trends and ETF inflows, will influence near-term price dynamics.

Gold Price Holds Critical Support (Short-Term)

COMEX gold futures are currently fluctuating between $5,030 and $5,080. Analysts note that as long as prices remain above the $5,000 support cluster, near-term bullish momentum is possible.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $5,057, holding $5,000 support and consolidating near $5,030–$5,080 amid short-term bullish momentum. Source: Alice via X

Gold is holding critical support around $5,000, indicating measured resilience. The price action within this range may guide short-term market participants, though it does not imply guaranteed outcomes.

Technical indicators show the RSI in neutral-to-bullish territory, signaling momentum is present but not overextended. Price action has formed higher highs and higher lows from intraday lows near $4,720, suggesting a V-shaped short-term recovery.

Symmetrical Triangle Signals Potential Short-Term Breakout

A symmetrical triangle has formed on the daily charts. Such patterns are neutral until a breakout with confirmation volume occurs, and they can resolve in either direction.

Key reference levels monitored by traders:

• Support cluster: $5,000–$5,020
• Resistance cluster/breakout threshold: $5,085–$5,100
• Structural breakdown level: below $5,000

Gold trades above $5,000 in a symmetrical triangle, with potential upside to $5,250 amid geopolitical tensions and Fed rate cut expectations. Source: MJBxnting on TradingView

Symmetrical triangles require volume confirmation to reduce false breakout risks, with these clusters serving as technical reference points rather than specific trading instructions.

Fibonacci projections suggest potential short-term targets at $5,146–$5,327, contingent on a confirmed breakout.

Medium-Term Scenario: Corrective Wave IV

Elliott Wave analysis indicates that gold may be in a medium-term corrective wave IV, potentially testing $4,200–$4,500. Historical bull-market retracements often align with 38.2% Fibonacci levels, which could serve as accumulation points before a subsequent extension (wave V).

Gold’s recent peak completed wave III, with corrective wave IV near $4,500 potentially preceding a future wave V advance. Source: Ekonomi Ofisi via X

This scenario highlights that medium-term corrective moves are a natural part of market cycles, distinct from the short-term breakout potential above $5,100.

Macro Context: Gold as a Hedge Amid Uncertainty

Gold remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors:

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) was 102.3 on February 11, showing mild weakness.
• Federal Reserve futures imply a ~40% chance of a 25bps rate cut by April 2026.
• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETFs added ~12 metric tons in January 2026, indicating ongoing institutional demand.

Gold continues to act as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with consolidation phases providing insight into demand dynamics without guaranteeing price movements.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Outlook

• Short-term (days to weeks): Consolidation between $5,030–$5,080; a breakout above $5,100 could extend toward $5,250 if confirmed with volume.
• Medium-term (weeks to months): Corrective pressures could test $4,200–$4,500 if support fails.
• Long-term (multi-year): Gold retains structural appeal as a safe-haven, supported by inflation hedging, central bank purchases, and ETF flows.

Technical patterns suggest accumulation and liquidity absorption, but false breakouts are possible, particularly in low-volume conditions.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: SPDR) Technical Analysis Signals Strong Bullish Momentum Near Highs

SPDR Gold Shares, listed on the NYSE under ticker SPDR, is showing a predominantly bullish technical structure as of February 11, 2026. Trading near $463.79, the ETF is positioned close to its 52-week highs, reflecting sustained upside momentum in gold prices. Short-term indicators suggest a Buy rating, while weekly and monthly timeframes point to a Strong Buy outlook, reinforcing the broader uptrend in $SPDR.

GLD formed a classic cup-and-handle pattern, signaling the potential for a strong bullish continuation. Source: Otradehouse on TradingView

From a chart perspective, SPDR continues to print higher highs and higher lows, supported by price action above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. While oscillators such as RSI and Stochastic are approaching overbought territory, raising the possibility of short-term consolidation, MACD and CCI remain supportive of continued bullish pressure. This suggests momentum remains intact despite stretched conditions.

Key resistance levels are forming near recent highs around $466 and the 52-week peak near $509, while support sits near the $445 zone and the 50-day moving average. As long as SPDR Gold Shares maintains structure above key trend levels, the technical outlook favors continuation toward new highs, with pullbacks potentially offering accumulation opportunities within the broader bullish trend.

Final Thoughts:

Gold is trading at a critical technical and macroeconomic juncture. Short-term reference clusters near $5,000 and $5,100 provide context for potential moves, while medium-term corrective scenarios remind traders and investors of inherent volatility.

Macro data, including DXY trends, Fed rate expectations, and ETF inflows, reinforce gold’s continued relevance as a safe-haven asset. Price levels, technical patterns, and macro drivers should be viewed as informational reference points, not deterministic forecasts or trading advice.