Ethereum Price at Risk of a 30% Crash as Futures Open Interest Dive During the Crypto Winter

Ethereum price continued its recent sell-off on Wednesday as the crypto winter gained steam. ETH was down by 3.3%, reaching a low of $1,950, down by over 60% from its all-time high. The ETF and futures markets suggest that the coin has more downside, potentially to its lowest level in 2025.

Ethereum Price at Risk as Futures Open Interest Falls

The value of ETH continued its downtrend and is now in the fourth consecutive week in the red. This decline accelerated after the US published strong jobs data, which removed the urgency of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near term. The economy added 130k jobs in January as the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

A major risk facing the Ethereum price is that demand in the futures market continues to fall this year. Data compiled by CoinGlass shows that the futures open interest fell to a month low of $23 billion. At its peak in 2025, the coin had an open interest of over $70 billion.

The futures open interest is a good metric seen as a proxy for the amount of leverage that investors are using in the crypto industry. This leverage has been in a strong downward trend since October 10 when positions worth over $20 billion in a single day.  

In most cases, crypto prices drop whenever the open interest is falling. At the same time, the weighted funding rate has tumbled to minus 0.0067%, its lowest level since February 6.

Funding rate is an important metric in the perpetual futures market that looks at the small fee that bulls and bears pay to maintain the position. A negative funding rate is a sign that these investors anticipate the future price to be much lower than where it is today.

Additionally, the ETF market is also showing signs that there is weak demand as the crypto winter gains steam. These funds have shed over $94 million in assets this month, the fourth consecutive month in the red.

ETH Price Prediction: Technical Analysis 

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the ETH price has been in a sell-off in the past few months. This crash may accelerate as it has dropped below the key support level at $2,113, invalidating the forming inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. 

The Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 22 and is pointing upwards, a sign that the rally is gaining momentum. It has also moved below all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues falling.

Therefore, the most likely ETH price forecast is bearish, with the next target price being at $1,340, its lowest level in 2025, which is about 30% below the current level. On the flip side, a move above the key resistance level at $2,200 will invalidate the bearish outlook.