XRP Eyes Recovery While Sellers Stay Active

• XRP tests short-term support near $1.46, signaling a potential rebound attempt.
• Key resistance cluster at $1.508–$1.55 may determine if bullish momentum strengthens.
• Derivatives and spot flows show reduced risk appetite despite slight February inflow gains.

XRP trades near $1.47 on the four-hour chart, attempting to rebuild strength after a prolonged decline. The pair previously fell from a $2.42 swing high to a $1.10 low, confirming a broader bearish structure. 

However, recent candles show stabilization as buyers defend short-term support. Consequently, traders now focus on whether this rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery or fade into another lower high.

Technical Structure Signals Decision Point

Immediate resistance stands between $1.508 and $1.55, where recent supply capped upside attempts. A decisive push above this zone would expose $1.61, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Hence, that level serves as the first meaningful test of bullish strength.

If momentum continues, price could challenge $1.76, the 0.5 retracement and prior structure pivot. Moreover, $1.92 represents the critical 0.618 retracement. A break above that region would shift the medium-term bias toward bullish territory. The final major barrier rests at $2.14, the 0.786 retracement, before any full trend reversal discussion.

On the downside, $1.46 acts as immediate support. Additionally, the $1.39 to $1.37 region forms an Ichimoku confluence zone and recent consolidation base. A sustained break below that cluster increases the risk of a move toward $1.20. Below that level, the $1.10 macro swing low remains the key structural floor.

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Price now tests the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud. A close above the cloud would confirm stronger upside continuation. Besides, the DMI shows buying pressure improving as positive momentum builds. However, ADX remains moderate, which suggests the trend still lacks strong conviction.

Derivatives Reset and Spot Flow Pressure

Open interest data reveals a full leverage cycle. Positioning expanded sharply into late October and later peaked above $10 billion. That surge reflected aggressive speculative exposure during a strong price phase. Significantly, open interest has since collapsed to around $2.56 billion by mid-February 2026. This contraction signals liquidations and reduced risk appetite.

Spot flows reinforce that cautious stance. Persistent outflows dominated from late April through mid-July. Although a large inflow spike appeared in late July, sellers quickly regained control in August. Moreover, November recorded another heavy distribution wave. Recent February flows show slight improvement, yet conviction remains limited.

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Technical Outlook for XRP Price

Key levels remain clearly defined for XRP as price attempts to recover from the $1.10 macro low. XRP now trades near the $1.47 region and tests short-term resistance. The structure still reflects a broader downtrend, yet momentum shows early stabilization.

Upside levels: $1.50–$1.55 stands as the immediate supply zone. A break above this range would expose $1.61, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Above that, $1.76 serves as the mid-range pivot and 0.5 retracement barrier. 

If bullish pressure strengthens, $1.92 becomes the critical 0.618 Fibonacci level. A move beyond $1.92 would shift the medium-term bias toward recovery. The final major hurdle sits at $2.14 near the 0.786 retracement.

Downside levels: $1.46 acts as immediate support. Below that, the $1.39–$1.37 zone forms a strong Ichimoku and consolidation base. A breakdown there would expose $1.20, which marked the February rebound area. The macro floor remains $1.10, and losing that level would confirm broader weakness.

The technical picture shows XRP pressing against the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud. A sustained move above the cloud would confirm bullish continuation. However, rejection at current levels could reinforce the prevailing downtrend.

Will XRP Go Up?

XRP’s next move depends on whether buyers defend $1.46 and reclaim $1.55 with strong volume. A decisive breakout could open the path toward $1.61 and $1.76. 

However, failure to hold $1.39 risks renewed selling toward $1.20 and possibly $1.10. For now, XRP trades in a pivotal range where confirmation, not speculation, will decide the next leg.

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