Cardano Price Prediction 2026: Can ADA Break $0.30 or Fall to $0.20?

Cardano ($ADA) is trading around $0.2848 as of February 17, 2026, within a clear bearish structure. The moving averages show full downside alignment: SMA 20 near $0.282, SMA 50 around $0.340, SMA 100 near $0.382, and SMA 200 at $0.579.

Price remains below all major averages, confirming sustained downward momentum and persistent macro weakness. Recent price action shows a sharp breakdown below $0.30 followed by a capitulation wick toward $0.23, suggesting temporary seller exhaustion.

A small bounce is forming above the $0.27–$0.28 zone, but structure remains corrective. Immediate resistance targets are $0.30, $0.34, and $0.38, where heavy supply and moving-average confluence sit overhead, as per the TradingView chart.

If price reclaims $0.30 and closes above $0.34, upside targets extend toward $0.38 and potentially $0.40. However, failure to break resistance likely leads to a retest of $0.23, with downside targets at $0.20 if selling accelerates. Overall trend bias remains bearish unless structure shifts above the $0.40 region decisively.

Also Read: Cardano Under Pressure: ADA Tests Critical $0.249 Support Zone

Technical Indicators Suggest Early Recovery

The RSI (14) is currently at 43.00, with its moving average near 36.34. This places momentum below the neutral 50 level, indicating mild bearish pressure. However, the recent rebound from near 30 suggests selling strength is fading, and a short-term recovery attempt may be developing, as per the TradingView chart.

The current status of the MACD (12, 26, 9) indicates that the MACD line is positioned at 0.00490, which is higher than the signal line that is positioned at -0.01806. The histogram is positioned at 0.02295, which is a positive position. The positive crossover, along with the green histogram, shows that the bullish momentum is gaining strength.

Cardano Included As Benchmark Digital Asset

The Nasdaq and CME Group have launched their Nasdaq CME Crypto Index in Times Square. The new index includes Cardano (ADA) and is intended to be a reliable benchmark for digital assets, making it easier for investors to track the performance of regulated crypto markets.

The index is designed to be able to handle an increasingly diverse set of financial instruments, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), structured products, and actively managed investment funds by investment teams.

The launch of the index represents a definite shift towards increased institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market and the role that $ADA and other major cryptocurrencies play in defining a formalized investment environment.

Why This Matters

The launch of the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index may have the ability to affect the short-term price actions of ADA and can accelerate the institutional adoption of cryptocurrency.

From a trading and investment perspective, the index provides a regulated benchmark for exposure to cryptocurrencies.

Also Read: Cardano (ADA) Eyes $0.33 Resistance: Is a Breakout on the Horizon?