Solana price outlook: Fresh lows under $75 possible as sentiment cools and funding rates flip negative
Solana price hovers near $80 as bearish sentiment grows and key support at $75 comes into focus.
- Solana price outlook is still bearish as SOL trades near the lower end of its weekly range.
- Funding rates have flipped negative while open interest climbs, showing growing short exposure.
- Loss of the $75 level could trigger a move toward the $70–$60 zone.
Solana traded at $81.67 at press time, down 3.7% in the past 24 hours. Over the last seven days, SOL has ranged between $76.81 and $90.59, hovering close to the lower end of that band.
The decline has been persistent. Solana (SOL) is down 38% over the past 30 days and 50% over the past year. Each bounce has been capped by lower highs, keeping pressure on the chart.
In derivatives markets, activity remains elevated. CoinGlass data shows futures volume up 6% to $8.01 billion, while open interest rose 3% to $5.24 billion. When open interest increases as price falls, it often reflects new short positions being added rather than longs exiting. In effect, traders are leaning bearish.
Hype fades as funding turns negative
According to a Feb. 19 report from Santiment, the excitement that surrounded Solana in 2025 has largely faded. The token is now down 67% from its $249 high on Sept. 18, 2025. Social dominance, which once stood above 6%, has dropped below 0.4% daily.
Network-related concerns have also weighed on sentiment. In January, maintainers urged validators to upgrade to Agave/Jito v3.0.14 after two critical vulnerabilities were disclosed. One issue could crash validator nodes, while another involved vote processing and raised questions about consensus integrity.
Although fixes were delivered quickly, the urgency highlighted how co-ordination affects and confidence.
Infrastructure discussions re-surfaced again after a Feb. 4 disruption, when traffic across the continental U.S. was temporarily rerouted through Europe and Asia. While rerouting is common in networking, performance consistency matters on high-speed chains and massively affect user sentiment.
Santiment also noted that the memecoin mania that once fueled record trading activity on the chain has faded, alongside NFT launches. Funding rates, however, have flipped deeply negative. Shorts are paying longs. Extended negative funding can create conditions for a squeeze if price stabilizes, but for now, it reflects dominant bearish positioning.
These factors have weakened the technical outlook for SOL, with a possible retest of the $50 to $60 range if sellers stay in control. Despite price weakness, daily network growth has increased. New wallet creation has continued to rise, showing that activity has not disappeared.
Solana price technical analysis
The daily chart shows a clear bearish structure. Lower highs and lower lows have formed for weeks. SOL trades below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the 50-day sits under the 200-day in a death cross alignment. The slope of both averages points downward.
The recent bounce failed near the $90–$100 supply zone, which now acts as strong resistance. Dynamic resistance sits around $88–$95, where short-term moving averages cluster.
Momentum is weak. The daily RSI is near 33, hovering just above oversold territory. It has not reclaimed the 50 midline, which keeps sellers in control. Oversold readings can produce quick bounces, but they do not confirm reversals on their own.
Price has been riding the lower Bollinger Band. The bands have widened during the sell-off, showing increased volatility. There has been no sustained move back toward the mid-band (20-day average).
Key support sits at $80–$82, followed by the psychological $75 level. Below that, the next demand zone appears near $70–$72. A deeper slide could expose the $60 region, which aligns with prior macro structure.
On the upside, resistance stands at $88–$90, then $100. A recovery above $100 on strong volume would weaken the bearish case. For that to happen, RSI would need to push above 50, funding would need to stabilize, and price would need to form a higher low above $80.
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