Meme Coin Watchlist: Who is cultivating genuine fans, and who is manipulating data?

Written by: Michael Nadeau

Compiled and edited by: BitpushNews

Whether you like it or not, we believe memecoins will exist for a long time. This article will share a macro perspective on the industry and delve into meme coins, which we are closely monitoring.

Let's begin.

Why pay attention to meme coins?

Our Methodology

Some people love memes, while others despise them. We're trying to step outside this debate and simply observe the market. From our observation, memes have taken root. From a "product-market fit (PMF)" perspective, they appear to be the ultimate crypto "game." People enjoy trading, the thrill of the game, the social aspect, and the risk-reward dynamic. And we believe that participants are very clear about the game they're playing.

Witnessing PEPE's success within the Ethereum ecosystem, we jumped on BONK and Solana at the end of 2023. This led us to delve deeper into the space, including on-chain data and additional investments such as GIGA, PEPE, and SPX6900. Our goal is to uncover unique attributes in holder data that demonstrate the token's staying power and the holders' unwavering conviction.

Why choose BONK, PEPE, SPX6900, PENGU, and USELESS?

Liquidity: Each token has ample liquidity and can be traded on major exchanges and retail channels.

Audience reach: Each token has a global audience interest (rather than being limited to niche memes such as specific politics).

Leaders/Embedded Culture: Each token is backed by at least one of the following: 1) a highly influential group of leaders/holders; 2) an established internet meme/culture; or 3) an existing popular brand.

Historical performance: Each token has experienced multiple sharp pullbacks following massive price increases. This price movement indicates broad market interest and helps diversify the holder structure, laying the foundation for the next expansion.

No unlocking, no venture capital: Only transparent on-chain data.

High Beta: Each token exhibits a high beta coefficient against BTC and its ecosystem's L1 assets. This can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns through proper allocation (our target is 3-5%), token selection, and entry points.

Now, let's delve into the on-chain data and see if we can distinguish the genuine from the fake.

Total number of token holders

BONK: 985,900 current holders (currently at its peak). Launched in December 2022, BONK is the largest meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, deeply integrated into various applications and wallets. Note that BONK has conducted community-driven airdrops, "spreading" it to a large number of wallets, as shown in the table below.

PENGU: 534,100 holders (down 14% from its peak). Launched in December 2024, PENGU represents social interest in the popular brand Pudgy Penguin. The total market capitalization of the Pudgy Penguin NFT series is currently approximately $78.5 million, while its meme coin market capitalization is $454 million (5.7 times that of the NFT series, down from its peak of $2.7 billion). We believe the value of the Pudgy Penguin brand (a strong mainstream crypto brand) is likely to continue flowing into this meme coin.

PEPE: 505,700 current holders (down 1.51% from peak). PEPE launched in April 2023. We believe PEPE is the purest expression of internet meme culture in cryptocurrency (especially Ethereum). It is based on the globally recognized "Pepe the Frog," an image that has maintained a strong internet presence since the late 2010s.

SPX6900: 113,000 current holders (down 0.33% from peak). Launched in September 2023, SPX6900 spawned a fervent internet community led by Murad, with the core philosophy of "Flipping the stock market." The brand appears to combine financial satire with a "BTC-like" holder base, where holders take it very seriously (as shown in the table below). We successfully traded SPX6900 during the last bull market and have been continuously analyzing its community and on-chain data since August 2024.

USELESS: 38,600 current holders (down 5.2% from peak). Launched in May 2025, USELESS is a meme coin with a satirical "anti-utility" bias. It attracted a vertical and seemingly loyal community after its launch last year on LetsBONK (which at the time took market share from Pump Fun). Currently valued at $44 million with over $10 million in daily liquidity (at a bear market low), we believe USELESS could present interesting opportunities under the right market conditions.

Holders with positions below $100

in conclusion:

BONK, PENGU, and PEPE already have a very mature holder base. SPX6900, on the other hand, exhibits a more steadfast and loyal holder base (albeit a smaller one).

Holders with positions exceeding $1,000

Note that the $1,000 wallet is categorized as follows: it is divided according to the number of units held at the token's all-time high (ATH) that equals $1,000.

in conclusion:

The SPX6900 stands out here, consistent with its performance since we started tracking this data.

To better understand the retention of $1,000 holders, we normalized the all-time high price data for each token and calculated the number of token units required to become a "$1,000 holder" at that time.

We then tracked changes in the number of units held in these wallets over time. This was done to filter out the noise of price fluctuations and gain a more accurate understanding of holders' retention intentions.

Here are our findings:

in conclusion:

In terms of "$1,000 holder" retention (measured in units to remove the price impact), the SPX6900 appears to have outperformed its peers.

Holders with positions exceeding $100,000

$100,000 Wallet Classification: Divided into units held at the token's all-time high (ATH) that equal $100,000.

retention rate

Similar to the data for $1,000 holders, we categorize $100,000 wallets by the unit of holding at the time of ATH.

We then tracked these wallets to determine how the total number of “$100,000 wallets” (in token units) changed over time.

Here are our findings:

in conclusion:

This once again proves that SPX6900 leads in token holder retention rates at the $100,000 level.

whale retention rate

Another way to monitor whale retention is to count all wallets that have ever held more than $100,000 worth of tokens and then compare them with the number of wallets that still hold more than 50% of their peak holdings (in units).

Here are our findings:

Momentum and the 50-week moving average (WMA)

relative strength

When we buy meme coins, we look for entry points where the 14-day RSI is in or near the oversold zone (30).

50-week moving average

SPX6900: Trading at 64% below the 50 WMA.

BONK: Trading at 62% below the 50 WMA.

PENGU: Trading at 58% below the 50 WMA price.

PEPE: Trading at 57% below the 50 WMA.

retracement percentage from the all-time high

Given that SPX6900 has superior on-chain data, it is not surprising that it has performed relatively more resiliently than other cryptocurrencies.

Conclusion

Given the industry's attention, we believe it's wise for crypto investors to pay attention to Memecoin. We've found Memecoin to be a highly valuable indicator when monitoring broad risk-on/off sentiment and liquidity conditions across the crypto market.

Needless to say, with the right position size and entry point, the right assets can provide a "powerful catalyst" for a portfolio.

In the last bull market, we successfully captured BONK and SPX6900 (exiting with a very small portfolio allocation and achieving a return of over 10 times). We will be looking for similar entry opportunities in the future.