Oil Prices Today: Brent Crude Tops $110 as Trump Sets Tuesday Deadline for Iran to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

TLDR

• Oil prices swung between gains and losses Monday as ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran emerged
• Brent crude briefly topped $110 a barrel before easing on reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire deal
• Trump set a Tuesday deadline threatening to strike Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked
• Iran’s IRGC warned it would intensify attacks on U.S. economic interests if civilian infrastructure continues to be hit
• OPEC+ agreed a small output increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May, but most members can’t actually deliver it

Oil prices swung sharply on Monday as traders weighed the threat of fresh U.S. strikes against Iran against early signs of a possible ceasefire deal.

Brent crude briefly climbed above $110 a barrel before pulling back. By mid-morning in Asia, it sat around $109.80, up 0.7%. U.S.-traded oil held broadly flat at $111.62.

The back-and-forth in prices reflects how tightly markets are tracking every development in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which began when U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran on February 28.

Before the war started, Brent crude was trading at around $70 a barrel. It crossed $100 last week after Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages.”

On Sunday, Trump posted an expletive-filled message on Truth Social warning that the U.S. would destroy power plants and bridges in Iran unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened by Tuesday evening Eastern time.

Speaking to Fox News, Trump said there was a “good chance” a deal could be reached Monday. He also floated the idea of “blowing everything up and taking over the oil” if talks failed.

Ceasefire Talks Emerge

News website Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the conflict. Reuters also reported that both sides had received a framework plan that could take effect as early as Monday.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. BBC News said it had not independently verified the Axios report.

Iran continued military action over the weekend, claiming responsibility for strikes on petrochemical plants in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE. The IRGC also warned Monday that attacks on U.S. economic interests would increase if Iranian civilian infrastructure keeps being targeted.

OPEC+ Output Hike Falls Short

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise crude output by 206,000 barrels per day in May. However, analysts say the increase is largely theoretical. Several key members cannot raise production because of disruption caused by the conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s energy shipments normally pass, has been blocked for weeks. The closure has pushed energy prices higher globally and raised inflation concerns in countries that depend on Middle Eastern oil.

Sushant Gupta from consultancy Wood Mackenzie said prices will stay volatile, driven by each new headline from the conflict.

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