Why Crypto Treasury Stocks Could Crash 50% in Coming Months

TLDR

• PIPE-funded crypto treasury companies face potential 50% stock price crashes as lock-up periods expire and investors sell shares
• Companies like Kindly MD (NAKA) have already crashed 97% to near their PIPE offering prices after unlocks
• Seven small-cap firms are turning to debt-funded share buybacks to support falling valuations despite holding crypto assets
• One in four public Bitcoin treasuries now trade below their net asset value, down from higher multiples in April
• Experts compare the crypto treasury trend to the 2000s dotcom bubble, warning most companies may fail and trigger the next bear market

Crypto treasury companies that raised money through private investment in public equity (PIPE) deals are facing steep stock price drops. Analytics firm CryptoQuant warns these companies could see their shares fall by up to 50% as lock-up periods end.

PIPE deals let private investors buy new shares at prices below current market rates. This gives companies quick access to cash but creates problems later. When the lock-up periods expire, these investors often sell their shares to take profits.

Kindly MD (NAKA) shows how severe these drops can be. The medical company moved into Bitcoin treasury holdings earlier this year. Its stock jumped from $1.80 to nearly $35 after announcing a PIPE raise in late April and May.

But when PIPE shares unlocked, the stock crashed 97% to $1.16. This price sits almost exactly at its PIPE offering price of $1.12. The collapse happened in just a few months.

Other companies are following similar paths. Strive Inc. (ASST) peaked at $13 in May but has dropped 78% to $2.75. CryptoQuant says its PIPE was priced at $1.35, meaning the stock could fall another 55% when the lock-up ends next month.

Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) conducted a PIPE priced at $10. The company’s shares have already fallen nearly 70% from their highs to below $20. CryptoQuant predicts another 50% drop could happen once PIPE investors start selling.

Companies Turn to Debt to Support Stock Prices

The problems go beyond PIPE deals. At least seven small-cap firms are now using debt to fund share buyback programs. These companies are trying to support their falling stock prices even though they trade below the value of their crypto holdings.

This trend shows growing investor doubt about the crypto treasury strategy. Companies that bought digital assets to boost their stock performance are finding it’s not working as planned.

ETHZilla, formerly 180 Life Sciences, rebranded after buying ether. Its stock has fallen 76% since August. The company recently got $80 million in debt from Cumberland DRW to finance a $250 million buyback program.

Empery Digital, once called Volcon, expanded its debt facility to $85 million. This happened despite the company holding $476 million in Bitcoin, which is more than its $378 million market value. The math shows investors value the company less than its crypto holdings.

Other companies like SharpLink Gaming, Ton Strategy, and CEA Industries are using similar tactics. Research from K33 shows one in four public Bitcoin treasuries now trade below their net asset value.

The average NAV multiple has fallen to 2.8 from 3.76 in April. This means investors are paying less for these companies relative to their crypto holdings than they were earlier in the year.

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