K33 Analyst: Bitcoin's Q4 performance significantly underperformed the stock market, potentially foreshadowing a positive trend in January.
PANews reported on December 17th, citing CoinDesk, that Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, stated that as the year-end approaches, Bitcoin may benefit as asset managers adjust portfolios to maintain established asset allocations, given its underperformance compared to other asset classes this quarter. Earlier this year, Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 in the first quarter before rising in the second. Conversely, when Bitcoin outperformed stocks in the second quarter, it declined at the beginning of the third quarter. So far this quarter, Bitcoin has lagged the S&P 500 by as much as 26%, suggesting a large-scale rebalancing is imminent.
Lunde suggests that fund managers with established Bitcoin allocation goals may adjust their positions before the end of the year, potentially leading to significant inflows on the last trading day of the year and in early January. He also points out that despite price stabilization, market participants remain reluctant to take on new risks. CME derivatives trading activity is near its annual low, with Bitcoin futures open interest at approximately 124,000 coins; perpetual contract funding rates are near neutral, and open interest changes are minimal, indicating a lack of confidence in short-term direction. A 12% drop in spot cryptocurrency trading volume last week also confirms low trader participation as the year draws to a close.
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