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Oracles are essential infrastructure components that feed real-time, off-chain data (such as price feeds, weather, or sports results) into blockchain smart contracts. Without decentralized oracles like Chainlink and Pyth, DeFi could not function. In 2026, oracles have evolved to support verifiable randomness and cross-chain data synchronization. This tag covers the technical evolution of data availability, tamper-proof price feeds, and the critical role oracles play in ensuring the deterministic execution of complex decentralized applications.

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Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
ArkStream Capital: The Q3 uptrend has come to an end, and Q4 is entering a repricing phase.

ArkStream Capital: The Q3 uptrend has come to an end, and Q4 is entering a repricing phase.

The third quarter of 2025 was crucial for the crypto market, serving as a bridge between the past and the future: it built upon the rebound in risk assets that began in July and further confirmed the macroeconomic turning point after the September interest rate cut. However, entering the fourth quarter, the market was simultaneously impacted by macroeconomic uncertainties and the outbreak of structural risks within the crypto market itself, leading to a sharp reversal in market dynamics and shattering previous optimistic expectations. As the pace of inflation decline slowed, coupled with the longest-ever US federal government shutdown in October and escalating fiscal disputes, the latest FOMC meeting minutes explicitly signaled caution against premature rate cuts, causing significant fluctuations in market sentiment regarding the policy path. The previously clear narrative that a rate-cutting cycle had begun was quickly weakened, and investors began repricing potential risks such as "higher interest rates will persist longer" and "soaring fiscal uncertainty." Repeated speculation about rate cuts significantly increased volatility in risk assets. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve deliberately suppressed excessive market expectations to avoid premature easing of financial conditions. Amid rising policy uncertainty, the prolonged government shutdown has further exacerbated macroeconomic pressures, creating a double squeeze on both economic activity and financial liquidity. GDP growth will be significantly dragged down: The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government shutdown will reduce the annualized growth rate of real GDP in Q4 2025 by 1.0% to 2.0%, equivalent to billions of dollars in economic losses. Key data gaps and liquidity contraction: The shutdown prevented the timely release of key data such as non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PPI, leaving the market in a "data blind spot" and increasing the difficulty of policy and economic judgments; at the same time, the interruption of federal spending led to a passive tightening of short-term liquidity, putting pressure on risk assets across the board. Entering November, discussions within the US stock market regarding whether the AI sector was experiencing a temporary overvaluation intensified. Volatility in highly valued tech stocks increased, impacting overall risk appetite and making it difficult for crypto assets to receive spillover support from the US stock market's beta. Although the pre-emptive pricing of interest rate cuts in the financial markets during the third quarter significantly boosted risk appetite, this "liquidity optimism" weakened considerably in the fourth quarter due to repeated government shutdowns and policy uncertainties, leading to a new round of repricing for risk assets. Amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty, the crypto market is also facing its own structural shocks. Between July and August, Bitcoin and Ethereum broke through their all-time highs (Bitcoin reached over $120,000; Ethereum touched around $4,956 at the end of August), and market sentiment became more positive in stages. However, the massive liquidation event on Binance on October 11th became the most severe systemic shock to the crypto industry: As of November 20, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant pullbacks from their highs, weakening market depth and widening the divergence between bulls and bears. Liquidity gaps caused by liquidation weakened overall market confidence, market depth declined significantly in early Q4, and the spillover effect of liquidation exacerbated price volatility and increased counterparty risk. Meanwhile, the inflow of funds into spot ETFs and crypto-stock DAT slowed significantly in the fourth quarter. Institutional buying was insufficient to offset the selling pressure from liquidations, causing the crypto market to gradually enter a high-level turnover and fluctuation phase from late August, which eventually evolved into a more obvious correction. Looking back at the third quarter, the crypto market's rise stemmed from two main factors: a general recovery in risk appetite and the positive impact of listed companies promoting DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) strategies. These strategies increased institutional acceptance of crypto asset allocation and improved the liquidity structure of some assets, becoming one of the core narratives of the quarter. However, as liquidity tightened and price corrections intensified in the fourth quarter, the sustainability of DAT-related buying began to weaken. The essence of the DAT strategy lies in enterprises incorporating a portion of their tokenized assets into their balance sheets, thereby improving capital efficiency through on-chain liquidity, yield aggregation, and staking tools. As more listed companies and funds explore partnerships with stablecoin issuers, liquidity protocols, or tokenization platforms, this model is gradually moving from the conceptual exploration stage to the practical implementation stage. In this process, assets such as ETH, SOL, BNB, ENA, and HYPE are exhibiting a trend of "token-equity-asset" boundary fusion across different dimensions, demonstrating the bridging role of digital asset treasuries in the macro liquidity cycle. However, in the current market environment, valuation frameworks for innovative assets related to DAT (such as mNAV) have generally fallen below 1, indicating a discount in the market's assessment of the net asset value on the chain. This phenomenon reflects investors' concerns about the liquidity, return stability, and valuation sustainability of related assets, and also implies that the asset tokenization process faces certain adjustment pressures in the short term. At the sector level, multiple segments are demonstrating sustained growth momentum: The market capitalization of stablecoins continues to expand, exceeding $297 billion, further strengthening their role as a financial anchor in an environment of macroeconomic uncertainty. The Perp sector, represented by HYPE and ASTER, has achieved a significant increase in activity through innovative transaction structures (such as on-chain matching, optimized funding rates, and tiered liquidity mechanisms), becoming a major beneficiary of quarterly fund rotation. The market sector is expected to become active again amid macroeconomic fluctuations, with Polymarket and Kalshi repeatedly hitting new highs in trading volume, becoming immediate indicators of market sentiment and risk appetite. The rise of these sectors indicates that funds are shifting from a single price game to a structured allocation based on three core logics: "liquidity efficiency, return generation, and information pricing." Overall, the divergence between the crypto and US stock markets in the third quarter of 2025 translated into a concentrated exposure of structural risks and a comprehensive increase in liquidity pressure in the fourth quarter. The government shutdown delayed the release of key macroeconomic data and exacerbated fiscal uncertainty, weakening overall market confidence. The debate surrounding AI valuations in the US stock market fueled volatility, while the crypto market faced a more direct liquidity and depth shock following the Binance liquidation. Meanwhile, the slowdown in DAT strategy inflows and the widespread drop in mNAV below 1 indicate that the market remains highly sensitive to the liquidity environment and exhibits significant vulnerability during its institutionalization process. Whether the market can stabilize subsequently will largely depend on the speed at which the impact of the liquidation is digested and whether the market can gradually restore liquidity and sentiment stability amidst increasing divergence between bulls and bears. With interest rate cut expectations realized, the market enters a repricing phase. In the third quarter of 2025, the key variable in the global macroeconomic environment will not be the event of "interest rate cuts" themselves, but rather the generation, trading, and consumption of interest rate cut expectations. The market's pricing in of a liquidity inflection point began in July, and actual policy actions will become the point of verification of existing consensus. After two quarters of back-and-forth, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September FOMC meeting, followed by a slight rate cut in October. However, because the market had largely priced in the rate cuts, the policy action itself had limited marginal impact on risk assets; the signaling effect of the rate cuts had already been largely priced in. Meanwhile, with inflation slowing and the economy showing greater resilience than expected, the Fed began to explicitly express concern about the market pricing in consecutive rate cuts next year, leading to a significant decrease in the probability of a further rate cut in December after October. This communication stance became a new variable dragging down market risk appetite. Macroeconomic data showed a "mild cooling" trend in the third quarter: The core CPI annual rate fell from 3.3% in May to 2.8% in August, confirming the downward trend in inflation; Non-farm payrolls have increased by less than 200,000 for three consecutive months; The job vacancy rate fell to 4.5%, the lowest level since 2021. This data indicates that the US economy has not fallen into recession, but rather entered a period of moderate slowdown, providing the Federal Reserve with policy space for "controlled interest rate cuts." Consequently, the market had already reached a consensus on a "certain interest rate cut" by early July. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors had already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in September with a probability exceeding 95% by the end of August, meaning the market had almost fully priced in this expectation. The bond market also reflected this signal: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 4.4% at the beginning of the quarter to 4.1% at the end of the quarter; The 2-year yield fell more sharply, by about 50 basis points, indicating that market bets on a policy shift were more concentrated. The macroeconomic shift in the third quarter was more a reflection of "the digestion of expectations" than "policy changes." The pricing of liquidity recovery was largely completed between July and August, and the actual rate cut in September was merely a formal confirmation of the existing consensus. For risk assets, the new marginal variable has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and sustainability of rate cuts." However, when the interest rate cut was actually implemented, the expected marginal effect had been completely consumed, and the market quickly entered a vacuum phase with "no new catalysts". Since mid-September, changes in macroeconomic indicators and asset prices have shown a clear stagnation: The US Treasury yield curve is flattening: As of the end of September, the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields was only about 14 basis points, indicating that although the term premium still exists, the risk of inversion has been eliminated. The US dollar index fell back to the 98-99 range, significantly weaker than the high of 107 at the beginning of the year, but the cost of US dollar funding remained tight at the end of the quarter. US stock market liquidity is tightening marginally: The Nasdaq index continues to rise, but ETF inflows are slowing and trading volume growth is weak, indicating that institutions have begun to adjust their risk exposure at high levels. This "vacuum period after expectations are realized" has become the most representative macroeconomic phenomenon of the quarter. The market trades on the "certainty of interest rate cuts" in the first half, and begins to price in the "reality of slowing growth" in the second half. The Federal Reserve's September dot plot (SEP) revealed a clear division within the policymaking body regarding the future path of interest rates: The median policy interest rate is expected to be lowered to 3.9% by the end of 2025; The committee members' forecasts ranged from 3.4% to 4.4%, reflecting the divergence of opinions among policymakers regarding inflation stickiness, economic resilience, and policy space. Following the September rate cut and another small rate cut in October, the Federal Reserve's communication has gradually shifted to a more cautious tone to avoid premature easing of financial conditions. As a result, the probability of another rate cut in December, which was previously highly anticipated, has now significantly decreased, and the policy path has returned to a framework of "data dependence" rather than "pre-set pace". Unlike previous rounds of "crisis-driven easing," this round of interest rate cuts represents a controlled policy adjustment. While cutting rates, the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet, signaling a commitment to "stabilizing capital costs and curbing inflation expectations," emphasizing a balance between growth and prices rather than actively expanding liquidity. In other words, the inflection point for interest rates has been established, but the inflection point for liquidity has not yet arrived. Against this backdrop, the market exhibited a clear divergence. Lower financing costs provided valuation support for some high-quality assets, but broad liquidity did not expand significantly, and capital allocation became more cautious. Sectors with robust cash flow and strong earnings support (AI, technology blue chips, and some DAT-related US stocks) continued their valuation recovery trend; Assets with high leverage, high valuations, or lack of cash flow support (including some growth stocks and non-mainstream crypto tokens) have seen their momentum weaken after expectations are realized, resulting in a significant decrease in trading activity. Overall, the third quarter of 2025 is a period of "expectation realization" rather than a period of "liquidity release." The market priced in the certainty of interest rate cuts in the first half, and shifted to a reassessment of the slowdown in growth in the second half. The premature consumption of expectations meant that while risk assets remained high, they lacked sustained upward momentum. This macroeconomic landscape laid the foundation for subsequent structural divergence and explained the "breakout-pullback-high-level consolidation" pattern in the crypto market in Q3: funds flowed to relatively stable assets with verifiable cash flows, rather than systemically risky assets. The DAT Explosion and Structural Turning Point in Non-Bitcoin Assets In the third quarter of 2025, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) leaped from a fringe concept in the crypto industry to the fastest-spreading new theme in global capital markets. For the first time, public market funds simultaneously entered the crypto asset market in terms of both scale and mechanism: billions of dollars of fiat currency liquidity flowed directly into the crypto market through traditional financing tools such as PIPE, ATMs, and convertible bonds, forming a structured trend of "crypto-equity linkage". The origins of the DAT model can be traced back to MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), a pioneer in the traditional market. Since 2020, the company was the first to include Bitcoin on its balance sheet, and between 2020 and 2025, it purchased approximately 640,000 Bitcoins through multiple rounds of convertible bonds and ATM issuances, with a total investment exceeding $47 billion. This strategic move not only reshaped the company's asset structure but also created a paradigm where traditional stocks become a "secondary carrier" of crypto assets. Due to the systemic differences in valuation logic between the equity market and on-chain assets, MicroStrategy's stock price has consistently exceeded its Bitcoin net asset value, with mNAV (market capitalization/on-chain net asset value) remaining in the 1.2–1.4x range for many years. This "structural premium" reveals the core mechanism of DAT: Companies raise funds in the public market to hold crypto assets, enabling two-way communication and valuation feedback between fiat capital and crypto assets at the company level. From a mechanistic perspective, MicroStrategy's experiments laid the foundation for the three pillars of the DAT model: Financing channels: Introduce fiat currency liquidity through PIPE, ATMs, or convertible bonds to provide enterprises with on-chain asset allocation funds; Asset reserve logic: Incorporate crypto assets into the financial reporting system to form an enterprise-level "on-chain treasury"; Investor access: Allows traditional capital market investors to gain indirect exposure to crypto assets through stocks, reducing compliance and custody barriers. These three elements together constitute DAT's "structural cycle": financing—holding—valuation feedback. Companies use traditional financial instruments to absorb liquidity, forming a reserve of crypto assets, and then use the premium in the equity market to increase capital, achieving a dynamic rebalancing between capital and tokens. The significance of this structure lies in the fact that it enables digital assets to enter the balance sheets of the traditional financial system in a compliant manner for the first time, and gives the capital market a completely new asset form—"tradable on-chain asset mapping." In other words, enterprises are no longer just on-chain participants, but become structural intermediaries between fiat capital and crypto assets. As this model was validated and rapidly replicated by the market, the third quarter of 2025 marked the second phase of the DAT concept's diffusion: extending from a "store of value" centered on Bitcoin to productive assets (PoS yields or DeFi yields) such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). This new generation of DAT models, centered on the mNAV (market capitalization/on-chain net asset value) pricing system, incorporates yield-generating assets into corporate cash flow and valuation logic, forming a "yield-driven treasury cycle." Unlike early Bitcoin treasuries, ETH, SOL, and others possess sustainable staking yields and on-chain economic activity, giving their treasury assets not only store of value attributes but also cash flow characteristics. This shift signifies that DAT is moving from simple asset holding to a stage of capital structure innovation centered on productive returns, becoming a key bridge connecting the value of productive crypto assets with the valuation system of traditional capital markets. Note: Entering November 2025, a new round of decline in the crypto market triggered the most systematic valuation repricing in the DAT sector since its inception. With core assets such as ETH, SOL, and BTC experiencing a rapid pullback of 25-35% in October and November, and the short-term dilution effect brought about by some DAT companies accelerating balance sheet expansion through ATMs, the mNAV of mainstream DAT companies generally fell below 1. BMNR, SBET, and FORD all experienced varying degrees of "discounted trading" (mNAV≈0.82-0.98), and even MicroStrategy (MSTR), which had long maintained a structural premium, saw its mNAV briefly fall below 1 in November, the first time since the launch of the Bitcoin Treasury strategy in 2020. This phenomenon signifies that the market has transitioned from a period of structural premium to a defensive phase of "asset-driven, valuation-discounted" pricing. Institutional investors generally view this as the first comprehensive "stress test" for the DAT industry, reflecting that the capital market is reassessing the sustainability of on-chain asset returns, the rationality of the pace of treasury expansion, and the long-term impact of financing structure on equity value. SBET and BMNR lead the Ethereum treasury revolution In the third quarter of 2025, the market landscape for Ethereum Treasury Assets (ETH DAT) was initially established. SharpLink Gaming (NASDAQ: SBET) and BitMine Immersion Technologies (NASDAQ: BMNR) emerged as two leading companies defining industry paradigms. They not only replicated MicroStrategy's balance sheet strategy but also achieved a leap "from concept to system" in terms of financing structure, institutional participation, and information disclosure standards, thus constructing the dual pillars of the ETH treasury cycle. BMNR: Capital Engineering for Ethereum Treasuryization As of the end of September 2025, BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has established itself as the world's largest Ethereum Treasury. According to the company's latest disclosure, it holds approximately 3,030,000 ETH, which, based on the closing price of $4,150/ETH on October 1st, corresponds to approximately $12.58 billion (approximately US$12.58 billion) in on-chain net assets. Including the company's cash and other liquid assets, BMNR's total crypto and cash holdings are approximately $12.9 billion (approximately US$12.9 billion). Based on this estimate, BMNR holds approximately 2.4–2.6% of the circulating supply of Ethereum, making it the first listed institution in the market to hold over 3 million ETH. This corresponds to a market capitalization of approximately $11.2–11.8 billion (approximately $11.2–11.8 billion USD), with a projected mNAV ≈ 1.27×, making it the highest-valued publicly traded digital asset treasury (DAT) company currently. BMNR's strategic leap is closely related to its organizational restructuring. After Chairman Tom Lee (former co-founder of Fundstrat) took full control of capital operations in mid-2025, he put forward the core proposition: "ETH is the institutional sovereign asset of the future." Under his leadership, the company completed its structural transformation from a traditional mining company to one that "uses ETH as its sole reserve asset and PoS returns as its core cash flow," becoming the first US-listed company to use Ethereum staking returns as its main operating cash flow. In terms of financing, BMNR demonstrated exceptional fundraising strength and execution efficiency. The company simultaneously expanded its funding sources through both public and private channels, providing long-term ammunition for its Ethereum treasury strategy. This quarter, BMNR not only broke records for fundraising in traditional capital markets but also laid the foundation for the institutionalization of "on-chain asset securitization." On July 9, BMNR, through a Form S-3 registration statement, signed an "At-the-Market (ATM)" issuance agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald and ThinkEquity, with an initial authorized limit of $2 billion. Just two weeks later, on July 24, the company disclosed in its SEC 8-K filing that it had increased this limit to $4.5 billion in response to the positive market response to its ETH treasury model. On August 12, the company submitted further supplementary information to the SEC, increasing the total ATM limit to $24.5 billion (an additional $20 billion), and specifying that the funds would be used to purchase ETH and expand its PoS staking portfolio. These limits represent the maximum number of shares that BMNR can obtain through a sustainable market-based offering approved by the SEC, and are not equivalent to actual cash raised. Regarding the funding aspect, the company has completed several concrete transactions: In early July 2025, a $250 million PIPE private placement was completed to fund the initial ETH position building; ARK Invest (Cathie Wood) disclosed on July 22 that it had purchased approximately $182 million worth of BMNR common stock, of which $177 million of net proceeds were used directly by the company to increase its holdings of ETH. Founders Fund (Peter Thiel) filed a 9.1% stake with the SEC on July 16. Although it was not new financing, it strengthened institutional consensus in the market. Furthermore, BMNR has sold approximately $4.5 billion worth of stock under its early ATM licenses, significantly exceeding the initial PIPE amount. As of September 2025, the company has utilized billions of dollars through multiple channels including PIPE and ATMs, and continues to advance its long-term expansion plans within the framework of a total license of $24.5 billion. BMNR's financing system presents a clear three-tiered structure: The tier of funding with certainty of success includes completed PIPE and institutional private placements, amounting to approximately $450-500 million. Market-based expansion layer – Through the ATM mechanism, shares are sold in stages, and the actual funds raised have reached the level of billions of US dollars; Potential ammunition layer – The $24.5 billion ATM quota already approved by the SEC provides ceiling flexibility for subsequent ETH treasury expansion. With this tiered capital structure, BMNR quickly built up a reserve of approximately 3.03 million ETH (worth approximately $12.58 billion), transforming its treasury strategy from a "single holding experiment" to an "institutionalized asset allocation." BMNR's valuation premium mainly stems from two factors: Asset-level premium: PoS collateralized yields remain at 3.4-3.8% annualized, forming a stable cash flow anchor; Capital premium: As a "compliant ETH leverage channel", its stock price usually leads the ETH spot price by 3-5 trading days, becoming a leading indicator for institutions to track the ETH market. In terms of market behavior, BMNR's stock price reached a record high in the third quarter, in sync with ETH, and repeatedly drove sector rotation. Its high turnover rate and the speed of circulating share circulation indicate that the DAT model is gradually evolving into an on-chain asset mapping mechanism that can be traded in the capital market. SBET: A Case Study of Transparency in Institutionalized Treasury Systems Compared to BitMine Immersion Technologies' (BMNR) aggressive balance sheet expansion strategy, SharpLink Gaming (NASDAQ: SBET) opted for a more robust and institutionalized financial management path in the third quarter of 2025. Its core competitiveness lies not in the size of its funds, but in the transparency of its governance structure, disclosure standards, and audit system, establishing a replicable "institutional-level template" for the DAT industry. As of September 2025, SBET held approximately 840,000 ETH, with on-chain assets estimated at approximately $3.27 billion based on the quarterly average price, corresponding to a stock market capitalization of approximately $2.8 billion, and mNAV ≈ 0.95×. Although the valuation is slightly lower than net assets, the company's quarterly EPS growth reached 98%, demonstrating its strong operating leverage and execution efficiency in ETH monetization and cost control. SBET's core value lies not in aggressive position expansion, but in establishing the first compliant and auditable governance framework in the DAT industry: Strategic advisor Joseph Lubin (Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys founder) joined the company's strategy committee in Q2 to push for the integration of staking yields, DeFi derivatives, and liquidity mining strategies into the corporate portfolio; Pantera Capital and Galaxy Digital participated in PIPE financing and secondary market shareholding, respectively, providing the company with institutional liquidity and on-chain asset allocation advisory services. Ledger Prime provides on-chain risk hedging and volatility management models; Grant Thornton, as an independent auditing firm, is responsible for verifying the authenticity of on-chain assets, yields, and staking accounts. This governance system constitutes the first disclosure mechanism in the DAT industry that combines "on-chain verifiable information with traditional auditing". In its 10-Q report for the third quarter of 2025, SBET will disclose in full for the first time: The company's main wallet addresses and on-chain asset structure; Pledge yield curve and node distribution; Risk limits for mortgage and restaking positions. This report makes SBET the first publicly traded company to simultaneously disclose on-chain data in its SEC filings, significantly enhancing institutional investor confidence and financial comparability. SBET is widely regarded as a "compliant ETH index constituent": its mNAV is close to 1×, its price maintains a high correlation with the ETH market, yet it exhibits relatively low volatility due to its information transparency and robust risk structure. ETH's dual-track approach to treasury management: asset-driven and governance-driven. The divergence between BMNR and SBET constitutes the two core pillars of ETH DAT ecosystem development in the third quarter of 2025: BMNR: Asset-Driven – Its core logic revolves around financing and balance sheet expansion, institutional shareholding, and capital premium. BMNR rapidly accumulates ETH positions using PIPE and ATM financing tools, and establishes a market-based leverage channel through mNAV pricing, promoting the direct coupling of fiat capital and on-chain assets. SBET: Governance-Driven – Focusing on transparency and compliance, structured treasury revenue, and risk control. SBET incorporates on-chain assets into its audit and information disclosure system, establishing the institutional boundaries of DAT through a governance architecture that combines on-chain verification with traditional accounting. These two represent the two extremes of ETH's treasury transformation from a "reserve logic" to an "institutionalized asset form": the former expands capital scale and market depth, while the latter lays the foundation for governance trust and institutional compliance. In this process, the functional attributes of ETH DAT have transcended that of an "on-chain reserve asset," evolving into a composite structure that combines cash flow generation, liquidity pricing, and balance sheet management. The institutional logic of PoS revenue, governance rights, and valuation premium The core competitiveness of the treasury of PoS crypto assets such as ETH comes from the triple combination of interest-bearing asset structure, network layer discourse power, and market valuation mechanism. High collateralized yield: Establishing a cash flow anchor Unlike Bitcoin's "non-productive holdings," ETH, as a PoS network asset, can generate an annualized yield of 3-4% through staking, forming a compound yield structure (Staking + LST + Restaking) in the DeFi market. This allows DAT companies to capture real on-chain cash flow in a corporate form, transforming digital assets from "static reserves" into "yield assets" with stable endogenous cash flow characteristics. The power of discourse and scarcity of resources under the PoS mechanism As the ETH treasury's staking volume increases, it gains governance and ranking power at the network level. BMNR and SBET currently control approximately 3.5-4% of the total ETH staking volume, placing them within the marginal influence range of protocol governance. This type of control carries a premium logic similar to "systemic status," and the market is willing to assign it a valuation multiplier higher than its net asset value. The formation mechanism of mNAV premium The valuation of DAT company not only reflects the net asset value (NAV) of its on-chain assets, but also incorporates two types of expectations: Cash flow premium: staking yield and expected distributable profits from on-chain strategies; Structural premium: Corporate equity provides traditional institutions with a compliant channel for ETH exposure, thereby creating institutional scarcity. At the market peak in July and August, the average mNAV of ETH DAT remained in the range of 1.2-1.3 times, with some individual companies (BMNR) even reaching 1.5 times. This valuation logic is similar to the premium or discount structure of gold ETFs or closed-end funds' NAV, serving as an important "pricing intermediary" for institutional funds entering on-chain assets. In other words, the premium of DAT is not driven by sentiment, but rather by a complex structure based on real returns, network power, and capital channels. This also explains why the ETH Treasury achieved higher capital density and trading activity than the Bitcoin Treasury (MSTR model) in just one quarter. The structural evolution from ETH to a multi-altcoin asset treasury Entering August and September, the expansion of non-Ethereum-based DATs accelerated significantly. A new wave of institutional allocation, exemplified by Solana's treasury-based model, signifies a shift in market focus from "single-asset reserves" to "multi-chain asset stratification." This trend indicates that the DAT model is being replicated from the Ethereum core to multiple ecosystems, forming a more systematic cross-chain capital structure. FORD: An Institutionalized Example of the Solana Treasury Forward Industries (NASDAQ: FORD) stands out as the most representative case in this phase. The company completed a $1.65 billion PIPE funding round in the third quarter, with all funds used for Solana spot trading and ecosystem collaboration investments. As of September 2025, FORD held approximately 6.82 million SOL tokens. Based on an average quarterly price of $248–$252, its on-chain treasury net value was approximately $1.69 billion, corresponding to a stock market capitalization of approximately $2.09 billion, with a mNAV ≈ 1.24×, ranking first among non-ETH treasury companies. Unlike the early days of ETH DAT, the rise of FORD was not driven by a single asset, but rather by the resonance of multiple capital sources and the ecosystem: Investors include Multicoin Capital, Galaxy Digital, and Jump Crypto, all of which are long-term core investors in the Solana ecosystem; The governance structure incorporates members of the Solana Foundation Advisory Board, establishing a strategic framework of "on-chain assets as enterprise means of production"; The SOL assets held remain fully liquid and have not yet been staked or configured in DeFi, in order to preserve the strategic flexibility for future restaking and linkage with RWA assets. This "high liquidity + configurable treasury" model makes FORD the capital hub of the Solana ecosystem, and also reflects the market's structural premium expectations for high-performance public chain assets. Structural changes in the global DAT landscape As of the end of Q3 2025, the total publicly disclosed global non-Bitcoin DAT treasury exceeded $24 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 65%. The structure and distribution are as follows: Ethereum (ETH) remains dominant, accounting for approximately 52% of the total market size; Solana (SOL) accounts for approximately 25%, making it the second largest allocation direction for institutional funds; The remaining funds are mainly distributed in emerging assets such as BNB, SUI, and HYPE, forming the horizontal expansion layer of the DAT model. The valuation of ETH DAT is anchored by PoS yield and governance value, representing a combination of long-term cash flow and network control. SOL DAT, on the other hand, uses ecosystem growth and staking efficiency as its core premium sources, emphasizing capital efficiency and scalability. BMNR and SBET established the institutional and asset foundations during the ETH phase, while the emergence of FORD has propelled the DAT model into its second phase of multi-chain and ecosystem development. At the same time, some new entrants have begun to explore the functional extensions of DAT: Ethena (ENA)'s StablecoinX model combines government bond yields with on-chain hedging structures to attempt to build a "yield-generating stablecoin treasury" to create stable but cash-flow-generating reserve assets. BNB DAT is led by the exchange system and relies on the asset collateral and reserve tokenization of ecosystem enterprises to expand the liquidity pool, forming a "closed treasury system". A temporary stagnation following overvaluation and risk repricing After a concentrated upward trend in July and August, the DAT sector entered a rebalancing phase in September following valuation overvaluation. Second-tier financial stocks initially boosted the overall sector premium, with the median mNAV exceeding 1.2x. However, with tightening regulations and slower financing, valuation support quickly declined by the end of the quarter, and the sector's enthusiasm cooled significantly. Structurally, the DAT industry is transitioning from "asset innovation" to "institutional integration." While ETH and SOL have established a "dual-core valuation system," the liquidity, compliance, and real yield of expansionary assets are still in the verification stage. In other words, market drivers have shifted from "premium expectations" to "yield realization," and the industry has entered a repricing cycle. Entering September, key indicators weakened in tandem: ETH staking yield fell to 3.1% from 3.8% at the beginning of the quarter, while SOL staking yield decreased by more than 25% quarter-over-quarter. Several second-tier DAT companies have seen their mNAV fall below 1, indicating diminishing marginal returns to capital efficiency. The total amount of PIPE and ATM financing declined by about 40% month-on-month, and institutions such as ARK, VanEck, and Pantera suspended new DAT allocations; At the ETF level, net capital inflows turned negative, and some funds replaced their ETH Treasury holdings with short-duration Treasury bond ETFs to reduce valuation volatility risk. This pullback exposes a core problem: the capital efficiency of the DAT model has been overdrawn in the short term. The early valuation premium stemmed from structural innovation and institutional scarcity, but as on-chain revenue declined and financing costs rose, companies expanded their balance sheets faster than revenue growth, falling into a "negative dilution cycle"—that is, market capitalization growth depends on financing rather than cash flow. From a macro perspective, the DAT sector is entering a period of "valuation internalization": The core companies (BMNR, SBET, FORD) maintain structural stability through sound financial resources and transparent information. Marginal projects face deleveraging and liquidity contraction due to their simple capital structure and insufficient disclosure; In terms of regulation, the SEC requires companies to disclose their primary wallet addresses and staking yield disclosure standards, further reducing the space for "high-frequency balance sheet expansion". The main short-term risk stems from valuation compression caused by liquidity reflexivity. When mNAV continues to decline and PoS yields struggle to cover financing costs, market confidence in the "on-chain reserve + equity pricing" model will be damaged, leading to a systemic valuation correction similar to that following the DeFi summer of 2021. Despite this, the DAT industry has not entered a recession, but rather transitioned from a "balance sheet expansion driven" to a "yield driven" phase. In the coming quarters, ETH and SOL treasuries are expected to maintain their institutional advantages, and their valuations will increasingly rely on: Efficiency of returns from pledging and re-pledging; On-chain transparency and compliance disclosure standards. In other words, the first phase of the DAT boom has ended, and the industry has entered a period of consolidation and validation. The key variables for future valuation adjustments lie in the stability of PoS yields, the efficiency of re-staking integration, and the clarity of regulatory policies. Prediction Markets: A Barometer of Macro Narratives and the Rise of the Attention Economy In the third quarter of 2025, prediction markets evolved from a "native crypto-edge activity" to a "new type of market infrastructure where on-chain and compliant finance converge." In an environment of frequent macroeconomic policy changes and dramatic fluctuations in inflation and interest rate expectations, prediction markets have gradually become important venues for capturing market sentiment, hedging policy risks, and discovering narrative prices. The fusion of macroeconomic and on-chain narratives has transformed them from speculative tools into a market layer that combines information aggregation and price signaling functions. Historically, crypto-native prediction markets have demonstrated significant foresight in numerous macroeconomic and political events. During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket's total trading volume exceeded $500 million, with the "Who Will Win the Presidential Election?" contract alone reaching $250 million. The peak daily trading volume surpassed $20 million, setting a record for on-chain prediction markets. In macroeconomic events such as "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2024?", contract price changes significantly outpaced the expected adjustments of CME FedWatch interest rate futures, demonstrating that prediction markets have become leading indicators in certain timeframes. Nevertheless, the overall size of on-chain prediction markets remains far smaller than that of traditional markets. Since 2025, the global crypto prediction market (represented by Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.) has accumulated a trading volume of approximately $24.1 billion, while traditional compliant platforms such as Betfair and Flutter Entertainment have annual trading volumes in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The on-chain market is less than 5% the size of the traditional market, but it demonstrates higher growth potential than traditional financial products in terms of user growth, topic coverage, and trading activity. In the third quarter, Polymarket became a phenomenal growth case. Contrary to the mid-year rumors of a $1 billion valuation financing round, the latest news in early October indicated that ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, planned to invest up to $2 billion, acquiring approximately a 20% stake, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $8-9 billion for Polymarket. This signifies that its data and business model have gained recognition from Wall Street. As of the end of October, Polymarket's cumulative annual trading volume was approximately $13.2 billion, with September's trading volume reaching $1.4-1.5 billion, a significant increase from the second quarter, and October's trading volume even setting a new record high of $3 billion. Trading themes focused on macroeconomic and regulatory events such as "whether the Fed will cut interest rates at the September FOMC meeting," "whether the SEC will approve an Ethereum ETF before the end of the year," "the winning probability of key states in the US presidential election," and "Circle (CIR) stock price performance after its listing." Some researchers pointed out that the price fluctuations of these contracts, in most cases, lead US Treasury yields and the FedWatch probability curve by approximately 12-24 hours, becoming a forward-looking indicator of market sentiment. Meanwhile, Kalshi achieved an institutional breakthrough in compliance. As a prediction market exchange registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi completed a $185 million Series C funding round in June 2025 (led by Paradigm), valuing the company at approximately $2 billion; its latest valuation disclosed in October had risen to $5 billion, with an annualized trading volume growth rate exceeding 200%. In the third quarter, the platform launched contracts related to crypto assets, such as "Will Bitcoin close above $80,000 by the end of this month?" and "Will an Ethereum ETF be approved before the end of the year?", marking the formal entry of traditional institutions into the speculative and hedging market of "crypto narrative events." According to Investopedia, its crypto-related contracts saw a trading volume exceeding $500 million within two months of launch, providing institutional investors with a new channel to express macroeconomic expectations within a compliant framework. Thus, the prediction market has formed a dual-track structure of "on-chain freedom + rigorous compliance." Unlike earlier prediction platforms that focused on entertainment and political themes, the mainstream market focus in Q3 2025 shifted significantly towards macroeconomic policies, financial regulations, and events linking cryptocurrencies and stocks. Macroeconomic and regulatory contracts on the Polymarket platform saw a cumulative trading volume exceeding $500 million, accounting for over 40% of the quarterly total trading volume. Investors remained highly engaged on topics such as whether an ETH spot ETF would be approved before Q4 and whether Circle's stock price would break through key levels after its listing. The price movements of these contracts even outpaced traditional media sentiment and derivatives market expectations at times, gradually evolving into a "market consensus pricing mechanism." The core innovation of on-chain prediction markets lies in their use of tokenization to achieve liquidity pricing for events. Each prediction event is priced binary or continuously in the form of tokens (such as YES/NO Token), and liquidity is maintained by automated market makers (AMMs), thus achieving efficient price discovery without the need for matching. Settlement relies on decentralized oracles (such as UMA and Chainlink) for on-chain execution, ensuring transparency and auditability. This structure allows almost all social and financial events—from election results to interest rate decisions—to be quantified and traded as on-chain assets, constituting a new paradigm of "financialization of information." However, rapid development comes with significant risks. First, oracle risk remains a core technological bottleneck for on-chain prediction markets; any delays or manipulation of external data could trigger disputes over contract settlement. Second, unclear compliance boundaries continue to constrain market expansion, as the regulatory approaches for event-based derivatives in the US and EU are not yet fully aligned. Third, some platforms still lack KYC/AML processes, potentially posing compliance risks related to funding sources. Finally, excessive concentration of liquidity on leading platforms (Polymarket's market share exceeds 90%) could lead to price deviations and amplified market volatility under extreme market conditions. Overall, the performance of prediction markets in the third quarter shows that they are no longer a marginal "crypto game" but are becoming an important carrier of macro narratives. They are both an immediate reflection of market sentiment and an intermediary tool for information aggregation and risk pricing. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, prediction markets are expected to continue evolving along a dual-circulation structure of "on-chain × compliance": the on-chain portion, Polymarket, will expand its reach by leveraging DeFi liquidity and macro narrative trading; while the compliant Kalshi will accelerate its attraction of institutional capital through regulatory approval and its USD-denominated pricing mechanism. With the popularization of data-driven financial narratives, prediction markets are moving from an attention economy to a decision-making infrastructure, becoming a rare new asset layer in the financial system that can both reflect collective sentiment and possess forward-looking pricing capabilities. Reference Links https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz/ https://blockworks.com/analytics/treasury-companies https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/prediction-markets-and-betting ArkStream Capital is a crypto fund founded by native cryptocurrency professionals. It incorporates primary market and liquidity strategies, investing in web3 native and cutting-edge innovations, and is dedicated to fostering the growth of web3 founders and unicorns. The ArkStream Capital team entered the cryptocurrency space in 2015 and comes from universities and companies such as MIT, Stanford, UBS, Accenture, Tencent, and Google. Its portfolio includes over 100 blockchain companies, including Aave, Sei, Manta, Flow, Fhenix, Merlin, Avail, and Space and Time. Website: https://arkstream.capital/ Medium: https://arkstreamcapital.medium.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/ark_stream

Author: PANews

2025/11/21

Important news from last night and this morning (November 20-21)

Important news from last night and this morning (November 20-21)

Jesse Creator Coin was targeted immediately upon launch, with 26% of the supply being bought up in the same block, generating $1.3 million in arbitrage profits. According to Arkham tracking data, Base co-founder and protocol lead Jesse Pollak's creator token was targeted on its launch day. After 50 million tokens were injected into the liquidity pool, 262 million tokens (26% of the supply) were bought up in the same block. Two attacker addresses profited approximately $707,700 and $619,600 respectively. Address 0x9F59…d8bB purchased a 7.6% share for $191,000, paid a $44,000 tip to the Base sequencer, and then sold all of it, making a profit of approximately $619,600. This action was achieved through Flashbots deployed on the Base chain, allowing users to preview the next block's transaction content. A Bitcoin whale's short position has yielded a floating profit of over $57 million. According to data tracked by Onchain Lens, a certain whale currently holds a 20x leveraged short position in Bitcoin, with a floating profit of $30 million and an additional $9 million profit through funding fees, for a total return of approximately $57 million. CZ's counterparty, the whales holding long positions in ETH/XRP/DOGE, have all turned from profit to loss, with current unrealized losses exceeding $32 million. According to on-chain data monitoring, the whale who previously profited $10.66 million from shorting ASTER and then went long on ETH/XRP/DOGE has now incurred a floating loss of over $32 million. Specifically, his 15x leveraged Ethereum long position has a floating loss of $19.91 million (he cut his losses by selling 5,000 ETH six hours ago due to a market downturn, with the current liquidation price at $2,539.51), his 10x leveraged XRP long position has a floating loss of $11.85 million, and his 5x leveraged DOGE long position has a floating loss of $1,259. Since the "1011 flash crash," he has made over $39.88 million through seven shorting operations, but his subsequent long positions have turned his profits into losses. A whale that sold at a loss five days ago withdrew 57,700 ETH from Binance this morning. According to Ember, an institution/whale sold 70,000 ETH (approximately $223 million) five days ago at an average price of $3,188, profiting $24.48 million from short selling. Today, it has turned to long positions. Five hours ago, it transferred $153 million USDT to Binance and withdrew 57,700 ETH (approximately $162 million), buying at an average price of $2,820. Currently, it holds a total of 432,000 ETH (approximately $1.24 billion), with an overall average holding price of $3,332, resulting in a floating loss of approximately $200 million. Sign launches a sovereign nation Layer 2 solution based on BNB Chain, supporting stablecoins and RWA on-chain. The Sign team has released the "SIGN Stack," a sovereign Layer 2 architecture built on BNB Chain and opBNB, designed specifically for national deployments of digital infrastructure and compliant stablecoins. This solution features customizable sequencer permissions, a DID identity system, gas-free stablecoin transfers, and the ability to put national physical assets (RWA) onto the blockchain. The goal is to establish BNB Chain as the settlement layer for global sovereign blockchain infrastructure. MOVE's buyback tokens continue to flow back into the company, with Movement transferring another 50 million tokens to Binance. According to Ember, the Movement project team transferred another 50 million MOVE tokens (approximately $2.51 million) that had been repurchased to Binance today. Previously, the project conducted a $38 million buyback in March as required by regulations, during which 180 million MOVE tokens were withdrawn from Binance to a public address, with an average buyback price of approximately $0.21. Currently, 115 million MOVE tokens (approximately $10.91 million) have flowed back to Binance. OpenAI launches ChatGPT group chat feature for users worldwide. According to an OpenAI announcement, the ChatGPT group chat feature is now officially available globally, for all logged-in users, including Free, Go, Plus, and Pro subscription plan users. This feature had previously been piloted with early adopters. Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower, with the South Korean stock index falling more than 2%. The Nasdaq closed down more than 2% overnight, with Japanese and South Korean stock markets following suit. South Korea's KOSPI index opened down 104.05 points, or 2.6%, at 3900.8 on Friday, November 21. Japan's Nikkei 225 index opened down 505.53 points, or 1.01%, at 49318.41 on Friday, November 21. US stocks closed: Nasdaq fell more than 2%, Nvidia opened higher but closed lower. U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.84%, the S&P 500 down 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.15%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 3.1%, after rising as much as 5% during the session, Micron Technology (MU.O) fell more than 10%, and Oracle (ORCL.N) fell more than 6%. Blockchain concept stocks generally declined, with Coinbase falling more than 7% and Circle falling about 4%. Director of the Trading and Markets Division of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: "Trustless" mechanisms for digital assets need to operate in "trusted" markets. Jamie Selway, Director of the Trading and Markets Division of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated at the SIFMA Market Structure Conference that although crypto assets are built on a "trustless" decentralized mechanism, healthy trading still depends on a market structure based on "trust." Selway pointed out that the SEC will promote clear regulatory rules through "Project Crypto," supporting competition and innovation, and avoiding regulatory distortions that could distort fair market competition. He emphasized that policymakers should treat all market participants, old and new, fairly, and that the market itself is the ultimate arbiter of value. Bitmine purchased another 17,242 ETH, worth approximately $49.07 million. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Bitmine has further purchased 17,242 ETH from FalconX and BitGo, which is worth approximately $49.07 million at the current price. Kalshi raised $1 billion in funding at a valuation of $11 billion, led by Sequoia and CapitalG. According to TechCrunch, citing sources familiar with the matter, prediction market platform Kalshi has completed a $1 billion funding round, valuing the company at $11 billion. The round was led by Sequoia and CapitalG. This funding round comes less than two months after its previous $300 million round, valuing the company at $5 billion. Kalshi allows users to place bets on various events and operates within legal boundaries, with annualized trading volume exceeding $50 billion. Its main competitor, Polymarket, is also reportedly planning a funding round with a valuation of $12-15 billion. The US government transferred assets seized in the FTX and Bitfinex hacks to a new wallet address. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the US government transferred some of the assets seized in the FTX-Alameda and Bitfinex hacks to new wallets in the past 6 hours, including 15.13 million TRX (approximately US$4.2 million), 545,000 FTT (approximately US$348,900), 744,000 KNC (approximately US$206,800), and 1,066 WETH (approximately US$3.01 million). Coinbase will launch a spot trading pair for BOB (BOBBOB). According to Coinbase Markets, BOB (BOBBOB) will be listed on the Coinbase platform on November 20th (Eastern Time). If liquidity conditions are met, the BOBBOB-USD trading pair will be launched on the same day. ANPA, a US-listed company, plans to purchase up to $50 million worth of EDU tokens within 24 months. According to an announcement by Animoca Brands, Open Campus and Animoca Brands have entered into a strategic partnership agreement with Nasdaq-listed ANPA (Rich Sparkle Holdings). ANPA will purchase up to $50 million worth of EDU tokens through marketplace and OTC transactions over the next 24 months as part of its EduFi (education finance) market strategy. Animoca Brands will provide $3 million worth of EDU tokens to support this partnership. This strategy aims to promote the institutional application and sustainable financing of blockchain in the education sector and expand the practical use cases of EDU tokens. A whale deposited all of its UNI holdings, which it had held for 5 years, into Binance, expecting to lose $11.7 million. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale deposited all 512,440 UNI tokens into Binance after holding them for five years, worth $3.64 million. This operation now faces a loss of $11.7 million. The whale initially withdrew these UNI tokens from Binance at a cost of $15.34 million. The "whale that hoarded cryptocurrency through revolving loans" liquidated 18,517 ETH in the past two days, incurring a loss of $25.29 million. According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, a "whale that hoarded WBTC and ETH at high prices through revolving loans" sold off 18,517 ETH (worth $56.45 million) in two days to avoid liquidation, resulting in a loss of $25.29 million. After selling off the ETH, the remaining 1,560 WBTC also suffered significant unrealized losses: with a cost price of $116,762, the unrealized loss was $41.12 million. U.S. Congressman Warren Davidson introduced the "Bitcoin for America Act". According to Bitcoin Magazine, U.S. Congressman Warren Davidson has introduced the "Bitcoin for America Act," which aims to codify the executive order on strategic Bitcoin reserves and eliminate capital gains tax on the use of Bitcoin for tax purposes. Coinbase launches ETH-secured loans through Morpho, allowing users to borrow up to $1 million. According to The Block, Coinbase has expanded its on-chain lending product to support Ethereum as collateral, allowing eligible customers to borrow up to 1 million USDC without selling their cryptocurrency. These loans are powered by the Morpho lending protocol on the Base chain, with Coinbase providing the user interface. ETH is the first of several collateral assets Coinbase plans to support, aiming to serve long-term holders seeking liquidity for down payments or debt refinancing while avoiding tax triggers. Initially, ETH-collateralized loans will use WETH as collateral, with later support for pledged ETH, which will be converted to cbETH as the underlying collateral token. The service is coming soon. There is no fixed repayment schedule; borrowers can avoid liquidation by maintaining a healthy loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, up to 75% of their LTV. Liquidation will be triggered when the LTV reaches 86%, the same ratio as for BTC-collateralized products. Loan interest rates are determined by supply and demand on Morpho, and the loan proceeds cannot be traded on the Coinbase platform. The service is currently available to verified users in the United States (excluding New York State), with plans to expand to international users in the future. MegaETH will launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge on November 25th, with a total cap of $250 million. According to official news, MegaETH will launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge on November 25th. All users who have completed the public sale registration for MEGA tokens on the Sonar platform and do not reside in countries on the restricted list are eligible to participate in the USDm pre-deposit. Users can only participate using one wallet, and that wallet must have been verified on Sonar for the MEGA token public sale. Pre-depositors will receive relevant benefits from the rewards program. There is no upper limit to individual deposits, and they are processed on a first-come, first-served basis, but the total limit for the entire program is $250 million. After depositing, users will receive USDm directly in the same wallet address on the first day of the MegaETH mainnet launch, at a 1:1 ratio, without restriction or conditions. The eligible deposit asset is USDC on the Ethereum mainnet. Users cannot withdraw their deposits before the USDm is distributed and must wait for the USDm to be distributed on the MegaETH mainnet. FG NEXUS has reduced its holdings by approximately 10,000 ETH since the end of Q3, and currently holds approximately 40,000 ETH. According to Globenewswire, Ethereum treasury company FG NEXUS released its Q3 financial report, stating that it held 50,778 ETH at the end of Q3, but as of November 19, it held 40,005 ETH, a reduction of approximately 10,000 ETH. In addition, the company also disclosed holding approximately $37 million worth of cash and USDC. Nillion: A market maker sold NIL tokens without authorization. We are taking countermeasures and pursuing legal action. Nillion, a computer network operating in the blind, posted on its X platform: "It has been confirmed that a market maker sold NIL tokens without legal authorization from the Nillion Association. Subsequently, during the flash crash and for several hours afterward, the market maker refused to respond to any communication from the team. Nillion is taking immediate action, and the Nillion Association has begun using its reserves to buy back the sold tokens. Nillion also promises to use all funds recovered from the unauthorized sale of tokens by the market maker to buy back more NIL tokens. Nillion stated that it is actively pursuing legal action and working with its exchange partners to ensure that all accounts and wallets related to this incident have been frozen." Earlier today, reports indicated that Nillion tokens had fallen by over 60% at one point. Federal Reserve's Hamak: Rate cuts could prolong high inflation. According to Jinshi News, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that interest rate cuts could prolong high inflation and also encourage risky behavior in financial markets. Ray Dalio: Bitcoin accounts for about 1% of my personal investment portfolio, and I believe it is unlikely to become a reserve currency for major countries. According to *Walter Bloomberg, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stated in an interview with CNBC: "I have long held a small amount of Bitcoin, about 1% of my portfolio, and it has always been that way. I have repeatedly expressed the same view about Bitcoin. I think the problem with Bitcoin is that it cannot become a reserve currency for major countries because it can be tracked, and theoretically, quantum computing could potentially control or crack it, and things like that." US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly surged by 119,000 in September, making the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision more complex. According to Jinshi News, the UK financial commentary noted that the unexpected rebound in the US labor market in September, as reported by the US September non-farm payrolls report, will further complicate the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month. The report, released Thursday, showed an increase of 119,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September, exceeding not only the 50,000 predicted by economists surveyed by institutions but also significantly higher than the revised 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August, a new high since 2021. This report is the first economic health indicator released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics since the record-breaking shutdown of the US federal government led to a halt in official data releases. The unexpectedly positive data will reinforce the stance of hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who have consistently warned the Fed against cutting rates too quickly. Following the data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar index both fell. Despite President Trump's long-term pressure on the Fed to cut rates, a deep division has emerged within the central bank: one faction advocates for continued rate cuts at the December meeting to support the labor market, while the other is concerned about the potential for increased inflation risks. The government shutdown has exacerbated the Federal Reserve's decision-making difficulties—the release of regular economic reports has been interrupted, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday that due to the stagnation of data collection during the shutdown, it will no longer release a separate October employment report, with some data being combined into the November report. The interest rate market is still pricing in a Fed rate cut in December. According to Jinshi News, the interest rate swap market indicates that a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely. Following the release of the latest economic data, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut, but still expect the Fed to skip December. The combined U.S. nonfarm payrolls figure for July and August was revised down by 33,000. According to Jinshi News, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its July non-farm payrolls figure down by 7,000 to 72,000 from +79,000; and its August non-farm payrolls figure down by 26,000 to -4,000 from +22,000. The revised figures show that the combined job gains for July and August were 33,000 lower than before the revisions. The number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the week ending November 15 was 220,000, compared to an expected 230,000. According to Jinshi News, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 15 was 220,000, compared to an expected 230,000. The US unemployment rate was 4.4% in September, below the expected 4.30%. According to Jinshi News, the US unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, compared to an expected 4.30% and a previous reading of 4.30%. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, below the expected 50,000. According to Jinshi News, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in September were 119,000, below the expected 50,000 and the previous value was revised from 22,000 to -4,000. Binance Alpha will list ULTILAND (ARTX) According to the official announcement, Binance Alpha will list ULTILAND (ARTX) on November 21st. Eligible users can claim airdrops using Binance Alpha Points on the Alpha event page after Alpha trading opens. Further details will be announced separately. Market news: Polymarket plans to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of $12 billion. According to market sources, prediction market Polymarket plans to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of $12 billion, an increase from its previous valuation of $10 billion. Tether announced an investment in Parfin, accelerating USDT adoption by institutional users in Latin America. According to its official blog, stablecoin issuer Tether announced an investment in Parfin, aiming to accelerate institutional adoption of the USD stablecoin USDT and enhance Latin America's access to efficient blockchain settlement solutions. Parfin is described as a Latin American digital asset custody, tokenization, trading, and management platform, providing financial institutions with tools to securely explore the potential of digital assets and blockchain technology. Aster: The total amount of ASTER buybacks has exceeded 155 million tokens, and the S3 airdrop will be available for claiming on December 15th. Aster announced on the X platform that it has completed the full buyback of S3 tokens, repurchasing a total of 55,720,650 ASTER. To date, the cumulative buyback volume has reached 155,720,656 ASTER. 50% of the repurchased tokens will be burned to reduce circulating supply and achieve long-term scarcity; this amounts to 77.8 million ASTER (approximately 1% of the total supply), and the burning date is December 5th. The burning transaction will be publicly disclosed on the blockchain. The remaining 50% of the repurchased tokens (77.8 million ASTER) will be used for future airdrops to reward long-term users, builders, and holders. The tokens will be transferred to an airdrop lock address for subsequent distribution. The S3 airdrop query will open on December 1st, and the S3 airdrop claiming will begin on December 15th. Furthermore, 60%-90% of the transaction fees generated by S4 will be used for buybacks, with the buyback starting on December 10th. The address ranked second on HyperLiquid's list of biggest losers has closed its ETH long positions, incurring a loss of $10.28 million. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the address ranked second on the HyperLiquid loss list has completely closed its 6x leveraged long ETH position, incurring a loss of $10.28 million. After closing the long position, this whale has now opened a 6x leveraged short ETH position. Bybit Alpha Farm has opened a SOL-USDC liquidity staking pool with an annualized return of up to 91%. According to official news, Bybit Alpha Farm has now opened its SOL-USDC liquidity staking pool to all users via its web platform, offering annualized returns of up to 91%. Users can join the on-chain liquidity pool with a single click using their Bybit account, without needing a wallet or gas, and easily earn real on-chain rewards. As the world's first on-chain mining product launched by a centralized exchange, Alpha Farm is reshaping the industry landscape: bridging the deep gap between centralization and decentralization, making on-chain liquidity accessible, usable, and reliable, and opening up an unprecedented new channel for on-chain rewards for users worldwide. Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission: Beware of suspicious investment products "Goldpay Token (GPT)" and "Gold Receipt (GR)" According to its official WeChat account, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) warned the public to be wary of suspicious investment products called "Goldpay Token (GPT)" and "Gold Receipt (GR)". These products involve digital tokens linked to physical gold. These investment products have not been approved by the SFC for sale to the Hong Kong public. The SFC noted that information about these products can be accessed by the Hong Kong public through their respective websites, social media accounts, and related mobile applications. Analysis: BitMine's $3.7 billion unrealized loss and its shrinking mNAV are threatening DAT's business model. According to a report by Cointelegraph, a research report released by 10x Research on Thursday shows that BitMine, the world's largest corporate Ethereum holder, is currently losing $1,000 per ETH relative to its average cost, with its total Ethereum holdings accumulating a floating loss of $3.7 billion. The report states that the declining net asset value (NAV) of corporate crypto treasuries makes it difficult to attract new retail investors, while many existing shareholders are effectively "trapped" unless they sell at a significantly lower price. When the premium inevitably falls to zero, investors find themselves trapped in this structure, unable to exit without suffering substantial losses. Unlike ETFs, digital asset treasuries (DATs) "are layered with complex, opaque, and often hedge fund-like fee structures that subtly erode returns." According to Bitminetracker data, BitMine's basic mNAV is 0.77, and its diluted mNAV is 0.92. BitMine holds approximately 3.56 million ETH, worth about $10.7 billion, representing 2.94% of the total Ethereum supply. The company's average cost basis is $4,051 per ETH. Other digital asset treasury companies also saw significant declines in their mNAV, including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet, Sharplink Gaming, Upexi, and DeFi Development Corp. GAIB launches official buyback program in response to external institutions selling tokens ahead of schedule. GAIB, an AI and robotics infrastructure economic layer project, issued an official statement today regarding the premature sale of tokens by external institutions on the day of TGE, and announced the launch of an official GAIB buyback program. In the statement, GAIB emphasized that the approximately five wallets identified by the community, each selling approximately 1 million GAIB tokens, were not affiliated with the team, advisors, or any internal entity. All tokens belonging to the team and core contributors are currently locked, and the GAIB team has not sold any tokens. An internal investigation revealed that these wallets belonged to external market institutions in multiple regions. According to their pre-TGE cooperation agreements, the tokens they received were only permitted for community activity incentives after launch and were explicitly prohibited from being sold prematurely. However, some institutions violated the agreement by selling tokens without authorization on the day of TGE, constituting a serious breach of contract. GAIB has formally notified the relevant institutions, demanding a full buyback of all sold GAIB tokens, on-chain buyback certificates, and acceptance of all consequences of the breach. However, the relevant institutions have not provided a clear response. GAIB will immediately launch an official buyback program, with the team directly repurchasing the improperly sold tokens on the market to ensure that the community's interests are not affected by any third-party actions. In its statement, GAIB said, "We will not leave the community to bear any consequences. The buyback program is our commitment to responsibility and transparency." GAIB will release an update to the community as soon as it obtains further details on the buyback implementation. Bitcoin Core passed its first third-party security audit and no serious vulnerabilities were found. According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin Core has passed its first third-party security audit, confirming that the software securing the Bitcoin network is highly mature and that no serious vulnerabilities were found. The audit was conducted by the French security firm Quarkslab, commissioned by the Open Source Technology Improvement Fund (OSTIF) and implemented on behalf of Brink, the Bitcoin Core development funding organization. During the 104-day audit period from May to September, auditors evaluated the most sensitive components of the project, focusing particularly on the P2P layer and block verification logic. The report notes that despite the large size of Bitcoin Core's codebase, containing over 200,000 lines of C++ code and more than 1,200 deployed test cases, the auditors assessed it as "the most mature and well-tested." The team found no high-severity or medium-severity vulnerabilities, only two low-severity issues, and a series of improvement suggestions primarily related to fuzzing tools and test coverage. These findings did not have any impact on the consensus mechanism, denial-of-service capabilities, or transaction verification. Metaplanet will issue $150 million in Class B perpetual preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings. According to official sources, Japanese listed company Metaplanet has announced the issuance of $150 million worth of Class B perpetual preferred stock, "MERCURY." This stock will have a fixed annual dividend of 4.9% and a conversion price of 1,000 yen, which will be used to continue acquiring Bitcoin. GoPlus: Users who have received the DMT airdrop should promptly revoke authorization or transfer their assets to a secure wallet. GoPlus has issued a security alert: Users who claimed the DMT token airdrop from @dexmaxai are urged to immediately revoke authorization or transfer their assets to a secure wallet. Multiple users have reported being tricked into authorizing other tokens when claiming the DMT airdrop today, resulting in the theft of assets from thousands of users and the cross-chain transfer of over $130,000. The official @dexmaxai Twitter account and website have removed RUG. Investigations revealed that attackers tricked users into signing again when claiming the airdrop, thus obtaining authorization and subsequently transferring the authorized assets. After stealing the funds, the attackers used a cross-chain bridge to transfer the assets to ETH. Most of the stolen funds have flowed into HitBTC, with a small portion still on-chain. Swiss precious metals giant MKS PAMP plans to relaunch its gold token project. According to Bloomberg, Swiss precious metals giant MKS PAMP SA is relaunching its gold token offering six years after a failed initial attempt, aiming to capitalize on growing market interest in digital physical gold. MKS PAMP has acquired Gold Token SA to revive its digital gold project. MKS PAMP was one of the initial players in the 2019 launch of the DGLD token, a collaboration that also included CoinShares International Ltd. MKS PAMP CEO James Emmett stated that the initial launch was "premature," and the token remained largely dormant for many years afterward. This relaunch will involve the company's trading arm purchasing the tokens and providing liquidity on exchanges. MKS PAMP will issue DGLD tokens only to accredited institutions, who can then sell them on secondary cryptocurrency exchanges, operating similarly to other gold tokens. According to the company, the tokens can be redeemed for a corresponding amount of physical gold in quantities as low as 1 gram.

Author: PANews

2025/11/21

The New Crypto Under $0.05 That Could Deliver 700% Growth, Only 10% Phase 6 Supply Left

The New Crypto Under $0.05 That Could Deliver 700% Growth, Only 10% Phase 6 Supply Left

The post The New Crypto Under $0.05 That Could Deliver 700% Growth, Only 10% Phase 6 Supply Left appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. One of the newest projects is taking down much of the attention of investors whose investments are still trading at prices far lower than the big tokens. The idea behind this new crypto below $0.05 is gaining momentum since numerous people believe that its initial metrics and adoption rate may position it to significantly rise in 2025 and early 2026.  The Reason Why Interest Is Spurring up Another active new crypto coin pre-sale is being conducted by Mutuum Finance (MUTM) currently. The token trades at a price of $0.035, thus falling within the pool of the potential best cryptocurrency to invest in when one wants to have a lower entry point. The presale stage 6 is already more than 89% sold, and that indicates high demand since customers are competing in order to get the available price before the next hike. Pre-sale started at the beginning of 2025 and since then MUTM has increased by nearly 300% of its initial price of $0.01 at the Phase 1. This gradual ascent has become an ongoing attraction to investors following the momentum in the initial stages. Already the project has attracted $18.8 million in terms of funds and 18,000 holders in addition to 800 million in terms of tokens sold. The 24-hour leaderboard reward system where the top daily contributor wins $500 in MUTM is also noted by investors.  What Mutuum Finance Is Building Mutuum Finance will be providing a two-lending DeFi platform that will streamline the lending of digital assets. It eliminates middlemen and automates smart-contracts to operate lending markets more effectively. This puts MUTM in another category compared to meme-driven tokens and makes it equal to utility-driven DeFi crypto projects. The investors perceive a value in the mtToken system where depositors are able to receive passive yield on their supplied…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/21

US stocks closed: Nasdaq fell more than 2%, Nvidia opened higher but closed lower.

US stocks closed: Nasdaq fell more than 2%, Nvidia opened higher but closed lower.

PANews reported on November 21 that U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84%, the S&P 500 fell 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 3.1%, after rising as much as 5% during the session. Micron Technology (MU.O) fell more than 10%, and Oracle (ORCL.N) fell more than 6%. Blockchain concept stocks generally declined, with Coinbase falling more than 7% and Circle falling about 4%.

Author: PANews

2025/11/21

Best Crypto to Buy Right Now? MoonBull, LINK, and TON Lead

Best Crypto to Buy Right Now? MoonBull, LINK, and TON Lead

The post Best Crypto to Buy Right Now? MoonBull, LINK, and TON Lead appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto Presales Discover MoonBull’s promising presale, Chainlink’s market resilience, and Toncoin’s rising influence. Find out why MoonBull is the best crypto to buy now with high ROI potential. In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, finding the best crypto to buy right now can be a challenge. Recent market movements have highlighted a few coins gaining serious traction, including MoonBull, Chainlink, and Toncoin. MoonBull’s presale is causing a buzz, with Stage 6 currently live and offering the lowest price before a significant price surge. Similarly, Chainlink (LINK) and Toncoin (TON) have captured attention with positive price action and major developments. Whether you’re looking to join an exciting presale or invest in established players, these coins present some of the best opportunities right now. The MoonBull presale is an exciting chance to get in early on a coin designed for long-term growth. Meanwhile, Chainlink continues to show resilience, and Toncoin is making strides with its integration into mainstream platforms like Coinbase. As the crypto landscape continues to develop, investors are eyeing these three coins for their unique potential. MoonBull: The Best Crypto to Buy Right Now MoonBull ($MOBU) is undoubtedly one of the most exciting presales in the crypto world right now. The unique combination of meme coin culture and solid tokenomics sets MoonBull apart from the pack. With the presale at Stage 6, the price is still at a highly advantageous level, making it the best crypto to buy right now for early investors. Joining now means securing tokens at the lowest possible price before the inevitable price surge as MoonBull advances through the presale stages. The $MOBU presale is unique, featuring an automated system that rewards holders, stabilizes price movements, and increases scarcity over time. Stage 6 offers the lowest price before a 27.4% price increase, giving investors a golden…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/21

Could MoonBull Turn $100K Into $7.3M? Analysts Tip It as the Best Crypto to Buy Right Now, While LINK and TON Slow Down

Could MoonBull Turn $100K Into $7.3M? Analysts Tip It as the Best Crypto to Buy Right Now, While LINK and TON Slow Down

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, finding the best crypto to buy right now can be a challenge. Recent market […] The post Could MoonBull Turn $100K Into $7.3M? Analysts Tip It as the Best Crypto to Buy Right Now, While LINK and TON Slow Down appeared first on Coindoo.

Author: Coindoo

2025/11/21

This $0.035 Token Might Be the Best Altcoin of Q4 2025, Early Buyers Move Fast With Only 10% Allocation Left

This $0.035 Token Might Be the Best Altcoin of Q4 2025, Early Buyers Move Fast With Only 10% Allocation Left

One digital asset is beginning to attract serious interest by leading crypto investors. Many of the coins already established either drift to the left or right immediately going into Q4 2025, however, there is one altcoin that is on the rise at a much quicker rate than many of its contemporaries. The first movers think […]

Author: Cryptopolitan

2025/11/21

Hackers Exploit GANA Payment for $3.1 Million on BSC Chain

Hackers Exploit GANA Payment for $3.1 Million on BSC Chain

The post Hackers Exploit GANA Payment for $3.1 Million on BSC Chain appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. GANA has suffered a $3.1 million exploit. The attacker used Tornado as a tool to obscure transactions. BSC Chain-based solutions have experienced several hacks this year. Emerging reports have revealed that GANA Payment, a decentralized PayFi infrastructure built on BNB, has suffered a $3.1 million exploit. Following the hack, GANA, the native token of the payment ecosystem, crashed, dropping to $2.98 to $0.31, reflecting a 90% decline. According to @zachxbt , the project ‘GANA Payment’ was exploited a few hours ago for ~$3.1M+ on BSC! Theft consolidation0x2e8a8670b734e260cedbc6d5a05532264aae5c38 The attacker deposited 1140 BNB ($1.04M) to Tornado on BSC and bridged funds to Ethereum where another 346.8 ETH… pic.twitter.com/lUBy3s3GZW — Vladimir S. | Officer’s Notes (@officer_secret) November 20, 2025 1140 BNB Stolen from GANA In a report linked to ZachXBT, a blockchain investigator on X, revealed that the attacker deposited 1140 BNB, equivalent to $1.04 million, to Tornado on BSC and bridged funds to Ethereum, where another 346.8 ETH, worth $1.05 million, was deposited to Tornado. Typical of ZachXBT’s analysis, the report included a process diagram revealing how the hacker moved the funds through multiple wallets to evade tracking. Meanwhile, ZachXBT confirmed that the attacker’s wallet held 346 ETH, equivalent to $1.046 million, at the time of the report. Related Article: Binance Cuts Illegal Crypto Activity to Historic Lows, Data Shows BSC Network Vs Ethereum in 2025 Notably, GANA, with the reported exploit, becomes the latest among the DeFi solutions on the BSC chain to be hacked. There have been several such incidents on the platform this year. However, it is worth noting that the BSC Network itself has not experienced major breaches. Instead, it is the smaller GameFi and DeFi protocols operating on the network that have been attacked in 2025. Among the several security incidents on BSC in 2025, the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/21

Upcoming Crypto Wave Is Forming: Apeing Emerges First as 8 Top Networks Ready Their Big Push

Upcoming Crypto Wave Is Forming: Apeing Emerges First as 8 Top Networks Ready Their Big Push

Explore the upcoming crypto that is generating massive hype. Aeping, Stellar, Litecoin, Hedera, Cronos, Chainlink, and BNB are emerging as top contenders for explosive momentum.

Author: coinlineup

2025/11/21

Chainlink Reserve Grows to 884,673.64 LINK After New Accumulation

Chainlink Reserve Grows to 884,673.64 LINK After New Accumulation

TLDR The Chainlink Reserve has reached 884,673.64 LINK after accumulating over 81,000 LINK. The Reserve supports Chainlink’s sustainability with offchain and onchain revenue. Chainlink’s economic model includes user fee growth and cost reduction strategies. Chainlink has secured partnerships with top financial institutions to drive adoption. The Chainlink Reserve, a crucial part of Chainlink’s economic framework, [...] The post Chainlink Reserve Grows to 884,673.64 LINK After New Accumulation appeared first on CoinCentral.

Author: Coincentral

2025/11/21

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