Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

899 Articles

Created: 2026/02/02 18:52

Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52

OKX Ventures Explores Evolving Crypto Prediction Markets

The post OKX Ventures Explores Evolving Crypto Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Iris Coleman Nov 28, 2025 11:00 OKX Ventures delves into the growth and development of crypto-native prediction markets, highlighting regulatory advancements and technological shifts in the Web3 space. The landscape of crypto-native prediction markets is undergoing a transformative evolution, driven by regulatory advancements and the integration of Web3 technology, according to OKX Ventures. As regulatory clarity improves and institutional capital continues to flow into this sector, prediction markets are transitioning from niche experiments into crucial tools for pricing information. Origin and Development of Prediction Markets Prediction markets, which aggregate collective intelligence to forecast events, have been around since the late 1980s. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) set the stage in 1988 with its innovative concept of ‘price equals probability,’ demonstrating high predictive accuracy in the U.S. presidential election. Despite regulatory challenges over the years, platforms like Betfair and Intrade emerged, although their growth was often hampered by compliance issues. In recent years, the approval of platforms like Kalshi by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has marked a significant regulatory milestone. This, coupled with the adoption of blockchain and smart contracts, has enhanced the reliability and efficiency of these markets, reducing operational barriers and censorship risks. Market Growth and Platform Strategy Analysis The prediction market sector, particularly in 2025, has witnessed substantial growth, partly fueled by the U.S. election and increased institutional participation. The market has evolved from event-driven activities to more consistent financial trading, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi dominating the space. Polymarket, known for its decentralized approach, has maintained high user retention through category expansion beyond political events to include sports and crypto assets. Kalshi, on the other hand, has leveraged its regulatory compliance to achieve significant growth, surpassing Polymarket in trading volume by mid-2025. The platform’s ability to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/29

Polymarket Shows 87% Chance of December Fed Cut; Crypto Stocks Move Higher

The post Polymarket Shows 87% Chance of December Fed Cut; Crypto Stocks Move Higher appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Several crypto-linked stocks climbed on Friday as prediction-market odds of a December rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level this month. Three US-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising in the session and showing double-digit gains over the past five days. Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source: Polymarket Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase notched more modest increases at the time of writing. Bitcoin (BTC) was also up around 7% on the week, after dropping to around $82,000 on Nov. 21, according to CoinGecko data. Top 10 Bitcoin mining stocks. Bitcoin Mining Stock Much of the volatility in prediction-market pricing this month has been driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials. On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” a remark investors took as hawkish — which means the Fed could delay rate cuts and keep conditions tight. Polymarket odds slipped from 89% the day before to as low as 22% by Nov. 20. Sentiment shifted on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, arguing that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation is now “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target. Related: Kalshi, Polymarket traders bet Supreme Court will curb Trump’s tariff powers Prediction markets expand as demand surges Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which enable bettors to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, have expanded their reach and influence this year. On Nov. 13, Polymarket inked a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to serve as the official prediction-market partner for the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/29